On September 6, a North Carolina State Appeals Court gave a tentative win to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., in his quest to remove his name from the ballot. The Court has not yet decided the issue, but it did order election officials not to send out ballots with Kennedy’s name.
According to breitbart trump has taken the lead nationally 49-47
Looks like the “Kennedy”effect is starting to become more and more apparent
That’s more like the Harris incompetence effect.
Why not both?
Kamala was supposed to get a large bump after the dnc convention
And then the Trump Kennedy coalition perfectly tuned the endorsement and essentially took away her headlines
At first Nate silver said this endorsement would have no effect then more recently he has retracted and said that he underestimated the effect
Looks like an ailing Trump campaign trailing was given life by the blockbuster endorsement and will likely give Trump a narrow victory
Rfk jr said I’m gonna forget about that Pennsylvania case and walked away and went straight to glendale for a historic endorsement that will be remembered for years to come
The media will do their damndest to protect Harris.
“Why not both?”
For a variety of reasons. The polling trend was evident before the Kennedy strategy shift, Kennedy leaners are not follow the leader automatons, and Harris got her bump early with her rollout and then squandered it. Among other things. I don’t have time or inclination to expound at length.
“Kamala was supposed to get a large bump after the dnc convention”
Supposed by whom? Her preconvention rollout ate up the slack that existed for that gain. The room for a further bump didn’t exist.
“And then the Trump Kennedy coalition perfectly tuned the endorsement and essentially took away her headlines”
I don’t know what MSM you watch. I get a sampling, and the Kennedy endorsement was a very minor story compared to Trump and Harris coverage and other headlines on any of them.
“first Nate silver said this endorsement would have no effect then more recently he has retracted and said that he underestimated the effect”
He was right to begin with. Well, I wouldn’t say none, but way less than you state or imply.
“Looks like an ailing Trump campaign trailing was given life by the blockbuster endorsement and will likely give Trump a narrow victory”
The Trump campaign wasn’t ailing. It suffered from a temporary Harris rollout bounce – what would normally be a convention bounce under other circumstances. And it needed a little while to adjust some messaging strategy that was personally aimed at Biden. Entirely predictable, and I predicted it elsewhere along with many people, before any Kennedy announcements.
As for election results, there are many momentum shifts to come in reaction to September and October surprises. Strap in, it will be a bumpy ride.
”
Rfk jr said I’m gonna forget about that Pennsylvania case and walked away and went straight to glendale for a historic endorsement that will be remembered for years to come”
Don’t get high off your own supply.
“The media will do their damndest to protect Harris.”
Of course. Their effectiveness is a separate question.
Friends,
I am thrilled to announce that the wealthy and generous Richard Winger has announced that he will refund all campaign donations given by Ballot Access News members in the past month. You just have to submit a comment with your legal name and mailing address and the amount that you donated and he will send you a personal check, or those close to the Bay Area, go to the big White House on the corner of Baker and Francisco just east of the Presidio and the freeway at 3201 Baker and he’ll give you a cash refund, no questions asked.
Love,
Cheryl
Now you want people harassing Richard Winger, at home no less?
@Jack S.
1. “For a variety of reasons…”
Your excuses are noted, but the endorsement’s impact is undeniable. It’s time to face the music!
2. “Supposed by whom?”
Every political pundit worth their salt predicted a post-convention bump for Harris. Your denial won’t change the facts!
3. “I don’t know what MSM you watch…”
The endorsement broke the internet, and you know it! Don’t pretend like it didn’t make a splash.
4. “He was right to begin with…”
Nate Silver’s retraction is a big deal. He admitted he was wrong, and that takes guts. You should try it sometime!
5. “The Trump campaign wasn’t ailing…”
We all saw the Trump campaign struggling before the endorsement. Don’t try to rewrite history!
6. “Don’t get high off your own supply…”
RFK Jr.’s actions speak louder than your snarky comments. He’s committed to the endorsement, and that’s what matters.
LOL. Your idea of political pundit is laughable. The impact is deniable. I deny it. It made a very small splash. I admit when I’m wrong. This is not one of those times. I’m not rewriting history – I’m providing a more logical explanation, which again, I was far from alone in predicting/offering before any Kennedy announcements. The endorsement makes very little difference. There are more logical explanations, which I gave you.
@Jack S.
I’m not buying the idea that the pundits were totally off base. They called it right.. the endorsement had an impact.
You can try to spin it, but the numbers and the buzz on the ground tell a different story.
I’m not impressed by attempts to downplay the attention it got – it was a big deal, and people were talking about it. I appreciate your willingness to own up to mistakes, but this isn’t one of them.
Your explanations might sound good, but they don’t add up to much when faced with the facts. And let’s be real, trying to minimize the endorsement’s impact just isn’t supported by the evidence.
I’m a pundit. I called it right. I wasn’t the only one. You’re the one spinning. What happened is obvious, and once again, I predicted it. The traditional convention bump took place before the convention, and then just came back down because fundamentals didn’t really change with a personnel change. Spin all you want, those are the simple facts.
Pundit, noun
Etymology:
Borrowed into English from Hindi पंडित (pandit), which itself derives via Urdu from Sanskrit पण्डित (pandita).
Definition:
In Hindustan, formally a Brahman versed in Sanskrit and in the science, laws and religion of the Hindus. Informally, any learned man or teacher. Since the end of the British Raj also used as an honorific for those who have obtained a degree of higher learning from an unaccredited college or university.
In Cashmere, any clerk or native official.
@Jack S.
Rfk jr was polling at 4-5% in the 7 key battleground states
They were very close Margins with trump VS Harris some of them razor thin
Now as Andrew yangs polling sample of 250k people on X showed that 80% of rfk jr supporters will support Trump
You don’t think this would change a narrow Kamala lead of 0.5 to
2pts in key battleground states to a state that has now flipped red due to rfk jrs majority of 5% flocking to Trump ?
I mean 5% of the vote is alot in swing states
In my opinion enough to change the election
I don’t believe that 80% of Kennedy leaners base their votes on his endorsements. Maybe 8%, if that. Probably lower. Polling people based on replies on X is hot garbage. For many reasons. Please tell me you can identify at least some of those without being spoon fed.
Lots of things will change the outcome of the election. Some of them have not happened yet.
Nuna: correct, anyone can be a pundit. In my case, it’s a common term for what I do for a living. I’m flying below the radar here on purpose.