DEMOCRATIC HOSTILITY TO ROBERT KENNEDY, JR. MAY HAVE COST KAMALA HARRIS THE PRESIDENCY
The popular vote in the November 5, 2024 presidential election was very close. Donald Trump received 49.86% and Kamala Harris received 48.24%. The margin between the two major candidates, 1.62%, is the smallest since 2000.
The result may have been reversed if Democratic officials had not made a effort to injure the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. candidacy, behavior which motivated him to quit the race. Between Kennedy’s announcement in October 2023 that he would be an independent candidate and August 1, 2024, his poll numbers varied from 20% to 8%, according to The Hill’s compilation of presidential polls. Kennedy declined in the polls during August, but he was still at 7% in the Pew Research Center poll released August 14. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris led in 29 of the 37 polls released in August (see the Wikipedia page “Opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election”). But then, on August 23, Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. The hostility toward him from Democratic Party leaders had been huge:
- Democrats had attacked Kennedy’s ballot access in Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, and Texas.
- Democrats worked with CNN to set debate criteria for the June 27 debate that made it impossible for Kennedy to qualify for the debate. They did this by saying his ballot access had to be confirmed in states with at least a majority of the electoral college votes by June 20. This ignored the fact that states simply do not check signatures that early.
The debate rules should have allowed secondary evidence that would have predicted with a high degree of certainty that Kennedy would be on the ballot. The rule was also discriminatory because at the time there was no certainty that the Democratic Party nominee would be President Joe Biden.
- The Biden administration denied Kennedy Secret Service protection until the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13 motivated a reversal of that denial.
- Democrats also challenged the right of an independent PAC to handle petitioning for Kennedy in the most difficult states, even though there is a long tradition in U.S. history of independent groups handling ballot access for minor party and independent presidential candidates. Most recently, the Michigan Republican Party had done the work of putting Ralph Nader on the Michigan ballot as an independent in 2004. Michigan state courts said there was nothing improper about that. Similarly, in 2008, outside groups put Ron Paul on the general election ballot in two states, with no coordination with Paul, and no one alleged that was illegal.
When Democrats attacked Kennedy so fiercely, that alienated Kennedy supporters. There is a movement that terms itself the Medical Freedom movement, and it was solidly behind Kennedy. When Kennedy dropped out of the race, members of that movement followed his lead and switched their support to Trump. It is not sensible for a party that is trying to win a close election to behave that way. But Democrats have long been in the habit of attacking minor parties and independents.
The Democratic Party challenged the ballot access of various minor party and independent presidential candidates in 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1952, 1964, 1976, 1980, 2004, and especially 2024. They attacked not only Kennedy, but Jill Stein, Cornel West, Claudia De la Cruz, Shiva Ayyadurai, and No Labels. The party has been behaving this way for so long, there seems to be no debate within the Democratic Party on whether this behavior is wise. It injures the voting rights of supporters of the attacked candidates. It is profoundly illiberal and contradicts the Democratic Party’s message that it is a champion of voting rights.
Contrast with Republicans
The Republican Party does not have the same habit of trying to challenge minor parties and independents. In 2024, Republicans challenged Libertarians in Illinois, and made a half-hearted attempt to get the party off the Oregon ballot. They challenged Libertarian House nominees in Iowa. Otherwise, there were no legal challenges from Republicans to ballot access. Furthermore, the most significant improvements in ballot access law in the last ten years have been in Republican-majority legislatures, such as North Carolina, Georgia, and Oklahoma. By contrast, recently hostile changes to ballot access laws have been passed in Democratic-majority states, such as New York, Nevada, Minnesota, and Colorado.
Most commentary suggests that the voters who were attracted to Kennedy were also attracted to Trump. Both candidates appealed to voters who feel hostile toward what they term the status quo. Harris would have been aided if Kennedy had remained in the race.
TOP-TWO NEWS
California: on November 21, three ballot-qualified minor parties filed a federal lawsuit against the top-two system, which has been in effect since 2011. The three plaintiffs are the Green, Libertarian, and Peace & Freedom Parties. Peace & Freedom Party v Weber, n.d., 4:24cv-08308. The case is assigned to U.S. District Court Judge Maxine Chesney, a Clinton appointee.
No federal court has ever upheld the California top-two system. The U.S. Supreme Court issued an opinion in the Washington state top-two case in 2008, but said in footnote eleven that it was not deciding the ballot access issue, because the lower courts hadn’t ruled on the ballot access issue either.
A California State Court of Appeals upheld the California top-two in 2015, in Rubin v Padilla, but the decision makes three major factual errors, which are discussed in the March 1, 2015 Ballot Access News, which can be read at www.ballot-access.org.
South Dakota: on November 5, the voters defeated Constitutional Amendment H by a margin of 34.4% to 65.6%. The amendment would have injured ballot access two ways: (1) based on the experience of the other top-two states, California and Washington, it would have kept all minor party candidates off the general election ballot, except in races in which only one major party candidate entered the race; (2) because parties remain on the ballot in South Dakota by polling 2.5% for any statewide race, and because they would no longer be on the November ballot except for President, they would lose their qualified status. Top-two proponents never seem to notice the latter flaw when they write their initiatives.
This was the ninth time that a top-two ballot measure had been on a statewide ballot.
It has now passed twice and been defeated seven times. The two wins were in Washington in 2004 and California in 2010. The losses have been in California in 2004, Arizona in 2012, Oregon in 2008 and 2014, South Dakota in 2016 and 2024, and Florida in 2020. The greatest loss for top-two ballot measures was in Oregon in 2014, when it only got 31.8%.
Oklahoma: on November 19, a group called Oklahoma United said it would try to put an initiative on the 2026 ballot to implement a top-two system.
TOP-FOUR NEWS
Alaska: on November 5, the voters supported the top-four system that has been in place starting in 2022. Measure 2 was an initiative to eliminate top-four, and it lost with 49.9% of the vote. Therefore, Alaska remains the only state using top-four.
Arizona: on November 5, voters defeated Proposition 140, which would have imposed a system in which all candidates run in the primary, and then only the top two, four, or five would have been able to run in the general election. The proposition didn’t actually choose between two, four, or five. Instead it said that if the measure passed, the legislature would decide whether the top two, four or five candidates would advance.
The measure received 41.3% of the vote. It said that if the legislature refused to decide between two, four, or five, then the Secretary of State would decide. It said that if the outcome were four or five candidates, then ranked choice voting would be used in the general election.
Colorado: on November 5, voters defeated Proposition 131, which would have established a top-four system. It received 46.5%. This was an amazing outcome, because the proponents had raised $9,300,000, while opponents had only raised $90,000. Opponents were outspent 100:1.
Idaho: on November 5, the voters defeated Proposition One, which would have created a top-four system. It received 30.4%. Proponents had raised $5,500,000; opponents had raised approximately $1,000,000.
Montana: on November 5, the voters defeated Constitutional Initiative 126, which would have imposed a top-four primary. It received 48.9%. Unlike all the other top-four measures, it did not mandate Ranked Choice Voting.
A second initiative, Constitutional Initiative 127, would have said that election law must be changed so that only candidates who receive a majority of the vote could be elected. It left it up to the legislature to decide how to realize that goal. It received 39.6% of the vote.
If CI-126 had passed, but CI-127 had not passed, then Montana would have had a general election system in which it probably would have been common for three Republicans and one Democrat to appear on the general election ballot for a single office. Without Ranked Choice Voting, this system obviously would have been very unfair to the Republican Party.
CI-126 was doubly bad for ballot access, because under current law, parties remain on the ballot by polling 5% of the winning gubernatorial candidate’s vote. With minor parties for statewide office unlikely to get on the November ballot, they would have lost their qualified status.
TOP-FIVE NEWS
Nevada: on November 5, the voters defeated Question 3, which would have created a top-five system. It received 47.0% of the vote. The outcome was surprising, because the same measure had passéd in 2022 with 52.9% of the vote. However, in Nevada, initiatives must pass in two elections in a row in order to take effect. This is the only top-five measure that has ever been on any state’s ballot.
HIGH COURT ASKS FOR RESPONSE IN UPSTATE JOBS PARTY CASE
On November 20, the U.S. Supreme Court asked New York to respond to the cert petition filed by the Upstate Jobs Party. This is the first time since 2020 that the Court has shown that much interest in a cert petition filed by a minor party or an independent candidate. The issue is whether it is constitutional for a state to permit larger campaign contributions to the nominee of a major party than to the nominee of an unqualified party or an independent candidate.
The case is Upstate Jobs Party v Kosinski, 24-503. It had won in U.S. District Court, but then the Second Circuit had reversed, saying the law doesn’t violate Equal Protection because minor party and independent candidates aren‘t “similarly situated” to major party candidates.
This is the first time since 2020 that the Court has shown that much interest in a cert petition filed by a minor party or independent candidate. In 2020, it had asked for a response to the Arizona Libertarian Party’s cert petition involving primary ballot access. In that instance, the Court had asked for the response after first considering the case at a conference. Ultimately, it refused to hear that case. Before that, the Supreme Court hadn’t asked for a response to a cert petition filed by a minor party or independent candidate since 2011, when it asked for one in Ralph Nader’s Hawaii ballot access case.
PENNSYLVANIA NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE BILL
HB 2662, the National Popular Vote Plan bill, has been introduced in Pennsylvania with bi-partisan support. It has four Democratic and two Republican sponsors.
RANKED CHOICE VOTING NEWS
Ballot measures to establish Ranked Choice Voting mostly passed in places where that measure was also not trying to simultaneously injure ballot access. On November 5, these measures passed in the District of Columbia; Bloomington, Minnesota; Richmond, California; Oak Park, Illinois; and Peoria, Illinois (the Peoria measure is not binding, but was meant to measure public opinion). However, the Oregon initiative lost.
Ranked Choice Voting helped boost the minor party and independent presidential vote in Alaska and Maine, the two places that used it in the presidential election.
Jill Stein’s highest percentage was in Maine. Cornel West’s second-best and third best states were Alaska and Maine. Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s third best state was Alaska (he wasn’t on in Maine). Chase Oliver’s fourth best and fifth best states were Alaska and Maine. Randall Terry’s best state was Alaska. Peter Sonski of the American Solidarity Party polled his best percentage in Alaska. The other minor party and independent candidates weren’t on in either Alaska or Maine.
LAWSUIT NEWS
Michigan: on October 29, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to let Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. withdraw his name from the ballot. Kennedy v Benson, 24A405. However, Justice Neil Gorsuch dissented. His dissent is only a sentence, and he said he agrees with the Sixth Circuit Judge in the same case who would have let Kennedy withdraw.
New Jersey: on November 18, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear the ballot access case of Shiva Ayyadurai, who had enough valid signatures but who was barred because he was born in India. Ayyadurai v New Jersey Democratic State Committee, 24-342.
Ohio: on November 1, the Sixth Circuit rejected Jill Stein’s lawsuit to force the Secretary of State to count her votes. She was on the ballot but the Secretary of State ordered signs posted in all precincts telling voters that if they voted for her, their vote would not count. The Sixth Circuit said she should have filed the case in state court, which was a legal error because when there is a time emergency, federal courts can accept the case. Stein v LaRose, 24-3923. The three judges were Richard Allen Griffin and Raymond A. Kethledge (Bush Jr. appointees) and Chad A. Readler (a Trump appointee).
Pennsylvania: on October 31, the Third Circuit refused to order Cornel West put on the ballot. West v Pennsylvania Department of State, 24-2913. The case is still alive in the U.S. District Court, and it may result in an eventual decision that it is unconstitutional to force independent presidential elector candidates to file separate declarations of candidacy, given what the District Court judge wrote. The qualified parties need not submit such declarations.
Wisconsin: on October 29, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to let Robert F. Kennedy, Jr withdraw his name from the ballot. Kennedy v Wisconsin Election Commission, 24A399.
ARIZONA VOTERS DEFEAT MEASURES TO HARM INITIATIVE
On November 5, Arizona voters defeated two measures that would have made it more difficult to use the initiative process. Both had been put on the ballot by the legislature. Measure 134 would have created a distribution requirement, with signatures needed in each of the 30 legislative districts. Measure 136 would have allowed state courts to invalidate measures before the voters had voted on them.
2024 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE (NOT FINAL!)
State | Trump | Harris | Stein | Kennedy | Oliver | De la Cruz | West | Terry |
Alabama | 1,457,704 | 769,391 | 4,297 | 12,026 | 4,914 | ? | ? | ? |
Alaska | 184,204 | 139,812 | 2,340 | 5,663 | 3,044 | ? | 1,165 | 810 |
Arizona | 1,770,242 | 1,582,860 | 18,319 | ? | 17,898 | ? | ? | ? |
Arkansas | 759,241 | 396,905 | 4,275 | 13,255 | 5,715 | ? | ? | ? |
Calif. | 5,989,358 | 9,184,242 | 165,656 | 195,286 | 66,093 | 71,515 | ? | ? |
Colorado | 1,377,111 | 1,727,622 | 17,334 | 35,612 | 21,432 | ? | 5,147 | 3,522 |
Conn. | 736,559 | 990,946 | 14,273 | 8,438 | 6,722 | 257 | 127 | ? |
Del. | 214,351 | 289,758 | ? | 4,636 | 2,038 | ? | ? | ? |
D.C. | 21,076 | 294,185 | ? | 2,778 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Florida | 6,110,125 | 4,683,038 | 43,155 | ? | 31,972 | 11,969 | ? | 5,834 |
Georgia | 2,663,117 | 2,548,017 | 18,229 | ? | 20,684 | ? | ? | ? |
Guam | (12,624) | (13,510) | (119) | (938) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
Hawaii | 193,661 | 313,044 | 4,387 | ? | 2,733 | 1,940 | 0 | 0 |
Idaho | 605,246 | 274,972 | 2,973 | 12,812 | 4,462 | 1,230 | ? | 1,026 |
Illinois | 2,448,038 | 3,060,875 | ? | 80,006 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Indiana | 1,720,347 | 1,153,603 | ? | 29,325 | 20,425 | ? | ? | ? |
Iowa | 927,019 | 707,278 | ? | 13,122 | 7,218 | 1,427 | ? | ? |
Kansas | 741,464 | 531,989 | ? | 15,806 | 7,406 | ? | ? | ? |
Kentucky | 1,336,230 | 700,921 | 7,538 | 16,753 | 6,409 | 389 | ? | ? |
Louisiana | 1,208,505 | 766,870 | 7,138 | 6,641 | 6,835 | 1,481 | 2,623 | 1,424 |
Maine | 374,357 | 430,222 | 9,003 | ? | 7,040 | ? | 2,896 | ? |
Maryland | 1,028,785 | 1,870,813 | 32,376 | 28,364 | 15,435 | ? | ? | ? |
Mass. | 1,236,069 | 2,075,285 | 25,412 | ? | 17,372 | 12.259 | ? | ? |
Michigan | 2,816,636 | 2,736,533 | 44,607 | 26,785 | 22,440 | 458 | 6,664 | 6,509 |
Minn. | 1,519,032 | 1,656,979 | 16,275 | 24,001 | 15,155 | 2,996 | 3,136 | ? |
Miss. | 708,339 | 428,641 | 1,787 | 5,119 | 2,407 | 1,034 | ? | 969 |
Missouri | 1,739,020 | 1,190,806 | 16,956 | ? | 23,754 | ? | ? | ? |
Montana | 352,001 | 231,856 | 1,878 | 11,824 | 4,273 | ? | ? | ? |
Nebraska | 564,755 | 369,959 | 2,886 | ? | 6,397 | ? | 3,061 | ? |
Nevada | 751,205 | 705,197 | 0 | 0 | 6,059 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N. Hamp. | 395,531 | 418,496 | 3,680 | ? | 4,425 | ? | ? | ? |
N. Jersey | 1,969,133 | 2,221,071 | 39,007 | 23,497 | 10,476 | 5,090 | ? | 3,015 |
N. Mex. | 423,391 | 478,802 | 4,611 | 9,553 | 3,745 | 2,442 | ? | ? |
N. York | 3,466,769 | 4,386,840 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
No. Car. | 2,898,099 | 2,714,494 | 24,756 | ? | 22,113 | ? | 12,089 | 6,862 |
No. Dak. | 246,505 | 112,327 | ? | ? | 6,227 | ? | ? | ? |
Ohio | 3,116,579 | 2,476,003 | ? | ? | 27,502 | 1,287 | ? | ? |
Okla. | 1,036,213 | 499,599 | ? | 16,020 | 9,198 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oregon | 910,055 | 1,227,740 | 18,793 | 33,339 | 8,919 | ? | 5,558 | 1,824 |
Penn. | 3,542,813 | 3,421,948 | 34,521 | ? | 33,310 | ? | ? | ? |
R.I. | 214,406 | 285,156 | 2,900 | 5,045 | 1,617 | 1,176 | ? | ? |
S.Car. | 1,483,747 | 1,028,452 | 8,117 | 0 | 12,669 | 3,059 | 6,744 | 5,352 |
S.Dak. | 272,081 | 146,859 | 0 | 7,204 | 2,778 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tenn. | 1,964,499 | 1,055,039 | 8,953 | 21,511 | ? | 3,451 | ? | ? |
Texas | 6,375,318 | 4,806,441 | 82,299 | ? | 68,266 | 2,161 | 1,688 | ? |
Utah | 883,818 | 562,566 | 8,222 | ? | 16,902 | 3,189 | 2,199 | ? |
Vermont | 119,395 | 235,791 | ? | 5,905 | 1,828 | 1,710 | 1,549 | ? |
Virginia | 2,075,061 | 2,335,367 | 34,888 | ? | 19,814 | 8,410 | 8,983 | ? |
Wash. | 1,526,507 | 2,241,552 | 29,676 | 54,696 | 16,386 | 8,658 | 7,245 | ? |
W.Va. | 533,556 | 214,309 | 2,531 | 8,947 | 3,047 | ? | ? | ? |
Wisc. | 1,699,313 | 1,669,767 | 12,259 | 17,668 | 10,508 | 2,026 | 2,745 | 4,050 |
Wyoming | 192,633 | 69,527 | ? | ? | 4,193 | ? | ? | ? |
TOTAL | 76,899,219 | 74,420,765 | 776,307 | 751,637 | 640,256 | 145,909 | 71,804 | 41,197 |
2026 STATEWIDE PETITIONING
State | Requirements | Signatures or Registrations Obtained | ||||||
Full Party | Candidate | Libertarian | Green | Constitut. | Wk. Fam. | No Labels | Forward | |
Ala. | 42,353 | 5,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alaska | (reg) 5,000 | 3,614 | already on | 1,527 | 797 | 0 | ? | ? |
Ariz. | 34,116 | (es) #46,000 | already on | already on | 0 | 0 | already on | 0 |
Ark. | 10,000 | 5,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Calif. | (reg) (es) 78,000 | 65 | already on | already on | 242 | 0 | 40,335 | 287 |
Colo. | 10,000 | 12,000 | already on | already on | already on | 0 | already on | 0 |
Conn. | no procedure | #7,500 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | already on | can’t start | can’t start |
Del. | (est.) (reg) 780 | (est.) 7,800 | already on | already on | 238 | 329 | already on | ? |
D.C. | no procedure | #3,000 | can’t start | already on | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Florida | 0 | 0 | already on | already on | already on | 0 | 0 | alredy on |
Georgia | 69,884 | #7,500 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Hawaii | 861 | 5,745 | already on | already on | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Idaho | 17,359 | 1,000 | already on | can’t start | already on | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Illinois | no procedure | #25,000 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Indiana | no procedure | #36,944 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Iowa | no procedure | #3,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kansas | 19,890 | 5,000 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | already on | 0 |
Ky. | no procedure | #5,000 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
La. | (reg) 1,000 | #pay fee | already on | already on | 154 | 0 | on if pay fee | 0 |
Maine | (reg) 5,000 | #4,000 | already on | already on | ? | ? | already on | ? |
Md. | 10,000 | 10,000 | 0 | already on | 0 | 0 | already on | 0 |
Mass. | (est) (reg) 49,000 | #10,000 | 16,307 | 3,599 | 292 | 722 | ? | ? |
Mich. | 44,478 | 30,000 | already on | already on | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Minn. | (est) 165,000 | #2,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Miss. | be organized | 1,000 | already on | already on | already on | 0 | already on | 0 |
Mo. | 10,000 | 10,000 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mont. | 5,000 | #17,725 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nebr. | 6,605 | 2,500 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nev. | 14,271 | 250 | already on | 0 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N. Hamp. | 24,406 | #3,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N.J. | no procedure | #800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N. M. | 3,562 | 3,562 | already on | unclear | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N.Y. | no procedure | #45,000 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | already on | can’t start | can’t start |
No. Car. | 13,979 | 83,874 | already on | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
No. Dak. | 7,000 | 1,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio | 56,447 | 5,000 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000 |
Okla. | 35,592 | pay fee | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oregon | 28,576 | 22,212 | already on | already on | already on | already on | 0 | 0 |
Penn. | no procedure | 5,000 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
R.I. | 17,884 | #1,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
So. Car. | 10,000 | 10,000 | already on | already on | already on | already on | 0 | 0 |
So. Dak. | 3,502 | 3,502 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tenn. | 56,083 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas | 80,778 | 113,151 | already on | already on | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Utah | 2,000 | #1,000 | already on | 0 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vermont | be organized | #1,000 | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Virginia | no procedure | #10,000 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Wash. | no procedure | #1,000 | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
West Va. | no procedure | #7,948 | already on | already on | already on | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wisc. | 10,000 | #2,000 | already on | already on | already on | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Wyo. | 3,879 | 3,879 | already on | can’t start | already on | can’t start | can’t start | can’t start |
Total States On | 31 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
#partisan label permitted. “WK FAM” = Working Families. “(reg.) = registered members. Four years ago at this time, the Libertarians were on in 32 jurisdictions; Green in 15; Constitution in 13.
FOURTEEN INDEPENDENTS WIN FOR FEDERAL OR STATE OFFICE
On November 5, two independents were re-elected to the U.S. Senate (Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine), and twelve independent candidates won elections to state legislatures:
Alaska: Rebecca Himschoot, Ky Holland, Calvin Schrage, Alyse S. Galvin, and Bryce Edgmon, were all elected to the House.
Maine: William Pluecker was elected to the House.
Massachusetts: Susannah Whipps was elected to the House.
Rhode Island: Jon Brien was elected to the House.
Vermont: Jed Lipsky, Anne Donahue, and Laura Sibilia were all elected to the House.
Kentucky: Scott Madon, a write-in candidate, was elected to the Senate. There were two candidates’ names on the ballot, but signs were posted in the polling places saying votes for them would not be counted. One had died and the other had withdrawn too late to get his name off the ballot. Madon is a registered Republican but he was not the Republican nominee.
PROGRESSIVE PARTY WINS SIX LEGISLATIVE RACES, BUT LOSES THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR RACE
On November 5, the Vermont Progressive Party won six legislative races: State Senate, Tanya Vyhovsky; State House, Brian Cina, Troy Hendrick, Kate Logan, Chloe Tomlinson, and Heather Moore. All are party members. They were also nominated by the Democratic Party, but the ballot listed them as “Progressive, Democrat” indicating by the order of parties that they are Progressive Party members.
But the party lost the Lieutenant Governor’s race. Its incumbent, David Zuckerman, lost to the Republican. No one got a majority; the third candidate on the ballot was the nominee of the Green Mountain Peace & Justice Party.
NO BALANCE OF POWER IN ANY STATE
On November 5, either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris got over 50% of the vote in every state except Michigan and Wisconsin. And even in those two states, no single “other” presidential candidate received as many votes as the margin between the two.
GREEN AND LIBERTARIAN PARTIES WIN NON-PARTISAN OFFICES
On November 5, twenty Green Party members were elected to non-partisan office: Haryakasha Gregor Knauer to the Coconino County, Arizona Tech Ed Board; Sylvia Chavez, Calipatria, California city council; Aqeela El-Amin Bakheit, Lake County, California Education Board; Jesus “Jesse” Mendoza, Mendota, California city council; Gabriel Medina, Watsonville, California school board; Zachary Saltzberg, Sebastopol, California school board; Rand Marx, Sacramento County, California water board; Jane Jarlsberg, San Bernardino County water board; Jocelyn Bolanos, Alderpoint, California water board; Alan Hangar, Vacaville, California water board; Christopher Medeiros, Merced County, California irrigation board; Eduardo Torres, Contra Costa County, California Parks Board; Nancy Heliotes, Napa, California Parks Board; Harry Farmer, Cambria, California Community Services Board; Kimory Orendoff, Anna Roblin, Slobodan Milic, to Washington, D.C. Neighborhood Advisory Boards; Kim O’Connor, Leon County, Florida water board; Lynette McLaughlin, Houlton, Maine water board; Eugene Platt, James Ialand, South Carolina public service board.
Libertarians elected are Aaron Starr, Oxnard, California city council; Bob Kerwin, Menifee, California city council; Brian Holtz, Purissima Hills, California water board; Terri L. Wallert, Keensburg, Colorado Trustee Board; James Doyle, Belleville, Kansas city council; Aaron Judd, Dayton, Kentucky city council; Chad Finkenbiner, Orchard Grass Hills, Kentucky city council; Ben Dejong, Lake Odessa, Michigan trustee; Brice Burge, Munising City Commission, Michigan; Larry Johnson, Ypsilanti Twp, Michigan Parks Commission; Jim Pinkman, Ashland, Nebraska city council; Jesse Schmidt, Bennet, Nebraska city council; Clay Andersen, Chadron, Nebraska city council; Katherine Schwieger, Reynolds, Nebraska board; Cole Stark, Waverly, Nebraska school board; Don Jacobson, Lower Platte South Natural Resources Board, Nebraska; Caitlin Statkus, Montague, New Jersey school board. It is also possible Wendy Hewitt was elected to the Calimesa, California city council but the votes haven’t all been counted yet and only 19 votes separate her from her opponent.
JILL STEIN GETS MATCHING FUNDS
Jill Stein qualified for primary season matching funds this year, and has received $379,983.
I called the FEC years ago because I was looking to start a PAC or a Super PAC and two people at the FEC told me that Super PAC funds can NOT be used for ballot access for candidates or political parties. American Values 2024 PAC is a hybrid PAC, which means it is part regular federal PAC and part Super PAC. They have to keep separate bank accounts for the regular federal PAC and the Super PAC. The issue was that American Values 2024 PAC was using Super PAC funds to pay for ballot access. Ultimately, none of the petition signatures American Values 2024 PAC paid for to get RFK Jr. on the ballot ended up getting never got submitted to election officials because they would have received big fines from the FEC and the signatures likely would have been disqualufied.
The entire thing American Values 2024 PAC did for RFK Jr. for ballot access was really a waste of money. American Values 2024 PAC paid for dpuble, or more than double the signatures, even though they were paying people to check the validity of the signatures, and their contractors were demanding that petition circulators come in with a validity rate of at least something like 70% or 75% or else their pay would be docked. Also, at the time that American Values 2024 PAC was doing this, which was around January and February, and I think at least some of march, there was still several months left to gather signatures in all of these states, and they were rushing in and paying for double, or more than double, the signature requirements, which did not give RFK Jr. large volunteer network much of a.chance to do anything. His volunteers got a lot of signatures all over the country so it was unnecessary for him to pay for as many signatures as most groups have to do. Also, two of the states where American Values 2024 PAC paid for signatures were Michigan and South Carolina, and in Michigan RFK Jr. ended up getting placed on the ballot by the Natural Law Party, which requires zero petition signatures, and in South Carolina he ended up getting put on the ballot by the Alliance Party, which required zero petition signatures. RFK Jr. could have just approached these parties about nominating him for President earlier and they would not have spent any money on ballot access petitioning in either state.
So they squandered a bunch of money for nothing for ballot access.
We don’t have a national popular vote. The analysis in your opening article proceeds from the starting point of a meaningless as to outcome aggregate statistic.
Polls also said Harris would win Iowa and she was trounced. Thus, this is FAKE NEWS
Is Richard Winger going senile?
Winger is getting more and more like Biden.
Looking at the actual numbers, it looks extremely unlikely that Kennedy would have made the difference in the swing states. Third party end results are typically much lower than August polls, and Kennedy was already down at 4-5% in the poll averages before suspending. He may have ended up at maybe 2% if he didn’t suspend. Not all of the difference went to Trump; some did, some went to Harris, some to other minor parties, and some stayed home, in addition to the ones who still voted for Kennedy even though he suspended.
Given all that, he probably didn’t change the spread between Trump and Harris by even half a percent.