NEW JERSEY THREATENS TO MAKE BALLOT ACCESS MORE DIFFICULT

On December 9, bills were introduced in both houses of the New Jersey legislature to increase the number of signatures for independent candidates and the nominees of unqualified parties.  The Assembly bill, AB 5117, cleared the State and Local Government Committee only three days later.  It cleared the Appropriations Committee four days after that.  Then, it passed the Assembly on December 19, by a vote of 46-27.

The Assembly vote was a party line vote.  All “yes” votes were cast by Democrats; all “no” votes were cast by Republicans.  Seven Assembly members did not vote, including six Democrats and one Republican.

The identical Senate bill, SB 3994, passed the Senate State Government Committee on December 19.  It hasn’t had a vote on the Senate floor yet.  The Senate is in recess and returns on Tuesday, January 14.  Opponents of the bill are making strenuous efforts to defeat it on the Senate floor.

The bill raises the statewide petition from 800 to 2,000.  It raises U.S. House and legislative petitions from 100 signatures to 250.

Advocates of the bill say the general election ballot is too crowded.  This is not true.

The last gubernatorial election, in 2021, only had five candidates on the ballot.

The last legislative elections were in 2023.  For State Senate, there were 86 candidates for the 40 seats, or an average of 2.15 candidates on the ballot per race.  No race had more than three candidates.

For Assembly, there were 160 candidates for the 80 seats, or an average of exactly two candidates per seat.  No race had more than three candidates per seat.  New Jersey elects two Assembly members in each district, but no district had more than six Assembly candidates, typically two Republicans, two Democrats, and at most two independents or the nominees of unqualified parties.

New Jersey has fewer minor party and independent candidates on the November ballot for legislature than the average state.  This is because New Jersey has a severe law on how a group can become a qualified party.  It must poll 10% of the vote for Assembly for its Assembly candidates. The New Jersey definition of “party” was passed in 1920, and is so difficult, only the Democratic and Republican Parties have ever met the definition.  Before 1920 it was 2%, and the People’s, Prohibition, Socialist and Progressive Parties had been qualified parties at some time in the 1890-1919 period.

The average state’s law on the definition of a qualified party is far easier.  In the 2022 or 2024 elections, there have been ballot-qualified minor parties in 41 of the 50 states.  The only states without one during those years have been Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Washington.

New Jersey hasn’t seen a lot of agitation to improve the definition of “party” because the petition requirements for unqualified party candidates have been lenient.  If New Jersey legislators feel the petition requirements are too low, they should also drastically ease the definition of a qualified party.

If New Jersey doesn’t want to ease the definition of a qualified party because of the expense of providing primaries to additional parties, it is free to adopt a two-tier system of qualified parties.  A two-tier system is one in which the large ballot-qualified parties nominate by primary, but the smaller qualified parties nominate by convention.  Seventeen states have such systems:  Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Experts in election administration have endorsed the idea, and generally minor parties like the idea.

If a group in New Jersey tried to become a qualified party under the existing law, it would logically need to run two candidates for Assembly in all 40 districts, in order to have the remotest chance of polling 10% of the entire Assembly vote for its nominees.  This is an extremely difficult task, which would be made even worse if each candidate needs 250 signatures instead of 100 signatures.

Finally, there is New Jersey’s ballot format, in which (in most counties) the Democratic and Republican Parties have their own party column, but all other candidates are squeezed into columns headed by the words “By petition”, which prevents some voters from noticing the names of those candidates.

In 1999, when a New Jersey legislator, Matt Ahearn, switched to the Green Party and then ran for re-election as a Green, he only received 10.8%, because of the unfair ballot format.  Normally, an incumbent running for re-election always does far better than that.  Ahearn blamed the ballot format.

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WHAT KENNEDY’S VOTE SHOWS

An analysis of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s vote tends to show that voters who voted for Kennedy would probably have voted for Donald Trump, if Kennedy had not appeared on their ballot.  However, the analysis is complicated because of another surprising discovery: the popularity of Kennedy in the few counties that have a majority of Native Americans.

Kennedy has long been interested in Native Americans, and Native Americans have long admired him for that.  When Kennedy announced his vice presidential nominee on March 26, Native American speakers and performers were an important part of the ceremony.

In the twenty-two counties with a Native American majority, and in which Kennedy was on the ballot, he received 2.49% of the vote.  In the nation as a whole, in the states in which he was on the ballot, he received .98% of the vote.

Setting aside the small number of Native American-majority counties, one sees that in a large majority of states in which Kennedy was on the ballot, his best county in that state was a county that was more pro-Trump than that state as a whole.  This tends to show that Kennedy’s support came at the expense of Trump.

For example, consider Essex County, Vermont, the only Vermont county that has voted Republican in any of the last three presidential elections.  It voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024.  It was also Kennedy’s best county in the entire nation, setting aside the Native American-majority counties.  Kennedy polled 4.15% in Essex County, which is in the northeast corner of the state.

Kennedy was on the ballot in thirty states.  In four of them, his best county was a Native-American majority county (Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota).

(Note:  because Alaska doesn’t have counties, State Representative districts were used instead).

Setting the Native American-majority counties aside, one finds that in 21 states, Kennedy’s strongest county was a county that was more pro-Trump than that state as a whole.  In only five states was the best Kennedy county a county that was more pro-Harris than that state as a whole.  Those five states were Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi, and Rhode Island.

The conclusion that Kennedy’s presence in the campaign injured the Trump campaign is not surprising.  After Kennedy withdrew in August and endorsed Trump, Democratic Party officials fought in court to prevent him from withdrawing from the ballot in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  By late August, there was a consensus that Kennedy voters were more likely to support Trump without Kennedy in the race.

The purpose of this article is to underscore the lead story in the December 1, 2024 B.A.N, that Democrats made a mistake when they fought all during 2024 to keep Kennedy off the ballot.

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STATE COURTS IN TWO STATES HEAR FUSION LAWSUITS

During December, state courts in two states heard oral arguments in lawsuits that support fusion.  In both Kansas and New Jersey, fusion supporters argued that the state constitution protects the right of two parties to jointly nominate the same nominee.  In Kansas, the plaintiff is the United Kansas Party, and in New Jersey, it is the Moderate Party.  The Kansas case was argued on December 3 in Saline County District Court, and the judge says a decision will be issued by March.  In New Jersey, it was argued on December 10 in the State Appeals Court.

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MINOR PARTIES FILE FOUR STRONG CASES IN U.S. SUPREME COURT

During January and February, the U.S. Supreme Court will be presented with four strong election law cases filed by minor parties or independent candidates.

Indiana:  the Green Party case against the petition requirement, currently 36,844 signatures, will be filed in a few weeks.  The case presented uncontradicted evidence that it would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to complete the petition.  Indiana is one of only three states in which the Green Party presidential candidate has never appeared on the ballot.  The lower court did not follow Supreme Court precedent and did not examine whether the law is needed for any governmental interest.

New York:  on December 20, opponents of the May petition deadline for independent candidates and the nominees of unqualified parties filed their cert petition.  Meadors v Erie County Board of Elections, 24-684.  The Second Circuit had said the case is moot, which contradicts several U.S. Supreme Court precedents.  The New York petition deadline had never been earlier than August, until, in 2019, the legislature moved it to May.

New York(2):  Upstate Jobs Party v Kosinski, 24-503, challenges a campaign finance law that lets individuals give higher contributions to the nominee of a qualified party than to an independent candidate or the nominee of an unqualified party.  The state originally said it wouldn’t bother to file a response, but then the U.S. Supreme Court asked the state to respond, which is a good sign.

Texas:  the cert petition of several minor parties, challenging all of the ballot access laws, will be filed in a few weeks.  It is very similar to the Indiana case mentioned above.  Miller v Doe.

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OTHER BALLOT ACCESS CASES

California:  the state has asked for more time to respond to the lawsuit Peace & Freedom Party v Weber, n.d., 3:24cv-8308.  The response is now due January 31.  This is the lawsuit that challenges the top-two system on the grounds that it deprives voters of the ability to vote for minor party candidates (other than President) in November.

Georgia:  the Libertarian lawsuit against the law on how minor parties and independent candidates get on the ballot for U.S. House is pending in the Eleventh Circuit.  Cowen v Raffensperger, 24-13164.

Idaho:  Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s lawsuit against the law that forces independent presidential candidates to list a vice presidential nominee on the ballot is pending in U.S. District Court.  Team Kennedy v McGrane, 1:24cv-83.

Illinois:  Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s lawsuit against various restrictions on the petitioning process, such as who can circulate a petition, is pending in U.S. District Court.  The Libertarian and Green Parties are also plaintiffs.  An amended Complaint is about to be filed.  Team Kennedy v Illinois State Board of Elections, n.d., 1:24cv-7027.

Nebraska:  Shiva Ayyadurai’s lawsuit on whether the names of presidential candidates who don’t meet the constitutional qualifications should still be on the ballot is pending in U.S. District Court.  Lauters v Evnen, 4:24cv-3175.

New York:  Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s lawsuit on whether his name should have been removed from the ballot because his address wasn’t accurate is still pending in U.S. District Court.  Team Kennedy v Berger, s.d., 1:24cv-3897.

The Libertarian and Green Parties had asked to intervene in this case to challenge other New York laws but have changed their minds.

Pennsylvania:  Cornel West’s lawsuit against the law that requires each candidate for presidential elector to file a notice of candidacy is still pending in U.S. District Court.  West v Dept. of State, w.d., 2:24cv-1349.

Tennessee:  all briefs have been filed in the Sixth Circuit in Darnell v Hargett, 24-5856.  This is the Libertarian case against the petition procedure for new parties, which now requires 43,498 signatures.

Texas:  the trial in Bilyeu v Esparza, w.d., 1:19cv-700, has been postponed to November 3, 2025.  This is the Libertarian lawsuit against the law that requires potential candidates to pay a filing fee if they are hoping to obtain a nomination at a minor party convention.

Utah:  on October 18, a U.S. District Court dismissed the lawsuit Rohr v State, 2:24cv-659, on standing grounds.  This is the lawsuit filed by presidential elector candidates for Shiva Ayyadurai.  The judge said they don’t have standing because they aren’t “candidates” because their names don’t appear on the ballot.

Wisconsin:  Shiva Ayyadurai’s lawsuit on whether the names of presidential elector candidates can ever appear on the ballot, even if the candidate doesn’t meet the constitutional qualifications, is pending in the Seventh Circuit.  Marshall v Wisconsin Election Commission, 24-2746.

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LIBERTARIAN WINS CAMPAIGN FINANCE LAWSUIT IN NINTH CIRCUIT

On December 20, the Ninth Circuit struck down campaign finance limits for City Council races in Oxnard, California.  Moving Oxnard Forward v Ascension, 21-56295.  The city had passed the limit, $500, in order to injure Aaron Starr, the Court determined.  Starr is an activist in the Libertarian Party and was elected on Novembrr 5, 2024.

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2024 U.S. HOUSE VOTE

This chart gives the total vote cast for U.S. House in the 2024 election.  The parties in the “other(1)” column are:  Alaska, Alaskan Independence; Colorado, Unity; Connecticut, Working Families; Missouri, Better; New Jersey, Socialist Workers Party; New York, Conservative; Oregon, Independent Party; South Carolina, Alliance; Utah, United Utah; Vermont, Peace & Justice.  Parties in the “other(2)” column are:  Colorado, Approval Voting 16,674 and Forward 5,631; Connecticut, Independent Party; New York, Working Families; South Carolina, United Citizens.

The only U.S. House race in the nation in which a ranked choice system was in place, and in which no one got a majority in the first count, was Alaska.  The chart uses the first round figures.

Note that the Republican Party candidates won a majority of the vote cast for U.S. House.  This is the best showing in the popular nationwide vote for U.S. House by the Republican Party since 2010.

	Republican	Democratic	Libt.	Green	Constit’n	Wk Class	other (1)	other(2)	indp
Alabama	1,508,754	518,197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alaska	159,550	156,828	0	0	0	0	13,010	0	0
Arizona	1,680,841	1,551,085	0	21,832	0	0	0	0	0
Arkansas	764,367	358,749	21,684	0	0	0	0	0	0
Calif.	5,928,084	9,138,709	0	0	0	44,450	0	0	0
Colorado	1,306,086	1,667,213	48,577	0	4,006	0	20,933	22,305	4,094
Conn.	683,089	981,762	0	6,768	0	0	19,792	10,291	0
Del.	209,606	287,830	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D.C.	19,765	251,540	0	21,873	0	0	0	0	19,033
Florida	5,975,435	4,339,733	2,524	0	0	0	0	0	10,007
Georgia	2,702,118	2,434,984	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hawaii	139,844	330,488	4,497	0	0	0	0	0	3,937
Idaho	581,168	244,885	30,904	0	16,737	0	0	0	0
Illinois	2,517,389	2,829,169	0	0	0	10,704	0	0	0
Indiana	1,668,618	1,103,484	86,202	0	0	0	0	0	9,790
Iowa	904,563	696,033	0	0	0	0	0	0	5,381
Kansas	749,375	526,153	30,121	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kentucky	1,390,749	509,159	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Louisiana	1,248,101	650,836	0	0	0	0	0	0	6,781
Maine	349,294	446,949	0	0	0	0	0	0	30,883
Md.	1,017,654	1,863,416	38,144	9,612	0	0	0	0	0
Mass.	304,460	2,386,143	0	0	0	0	0	0	247,617
Michigan	2,702,653	2,634,228	58,729	33,911	18,715	68,634	0	0	0
Minn.	1,550,499	1,579,742	0	0	0	0	0	0	9,492
Miss.	812,799	350,353	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Missouri	1,711,050	1,125,671	65,284	20,577	0	0	2,279	0	0
Montana	350,361	237,496	9,954	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nebraska	591,238	338,154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nevada	692,714	534,115	22,828	0	27,439	0	0	0	149,981
N. Hamp.	373,746	430,218	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Jersey	1,828,853	2,115,843	18,343	48,683	0	0	2,419	0	22,985
N. Mex.	402,776	493,722	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. York	3,039,639	4,330,117	0	0	0	0	331,304	198,256	12,602
No. Car.	2,889,999	2,349,621	102,760	8,691	109,901	0	0	0	22,183
No. Dak.	249,101	109,231	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ohio	3,104,290	2,382,078	15,381	0	0	0	75	0	69,002
Okla.	834,553	397,856	0	0	0	0	0	0	49,697
Oregon	912,337	1,151,394	22,737	24,576	13,714	0	28,910	0	0
Penn.	3,481,113	3,338,371	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R.I.	180,123	292,791	0	0	0	0	0	0	10,463
S.Car.	1,475,329	964,448	5,279	0	9,779	0	10,974	4,927	0
S.Dak.	303,630	117,818	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tenn.	1,884,691	977,870	0	0	0	0	0	0	64,394
Texas	6,235,017	4,311,123	98,633	0	0	0	0	0	27,461
Utah	909,332	471,051	17,601	0	19,650	0	17,347	0	13,696
Vermont	104,451	218,398	0	0	0	0	7,552	0	19,286
Virginia	2,108,450	2,274,922	0	0	0	0	0	0	30,789
Wash.	1,592,599	2,155,907	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W.Va.	496,681	200,813	0	0	0	0	0	0	25,616
Wisc.	1,701,860	1,603,350	0	8,191	0	0	0	0	8,792
Wyoming	184,680	60,778	9,223	0	5,362	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	74,513,474	70,820,824	709,405	204,714	225,303	123,788	454,595	235,779	873,962

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2024 U.S. SENATE VOTE

These charts below give the total votes cast for U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.

For U.S. Senate, parties in the “other” column are:  Delaware, Independent Party; Hawaii, We the People; Michigan, Natural Law; Minnesota, Independence-Alliance; New Jersey, Socialist Workers; Utah, Independent American; Vermont, Peace & Justice.

For Governor, parties in the “other” column are:  Utah, Independent American.

The independent candidate for Governor of Utah was a write-in candidate who  lost the Republican gubernatorial primary and who  then kept his campaign alive as a write-in.

	Democratic	Republican	indepent	Liber’n	Green	Constitn	Wk Fam	Conserv	other
Arizona	1,676,335	1,595,761	0	535	75,868	0	0	0	0
Calif.	9,036,252	6,312,594	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Conn.	953,646	678,256	14,879	0	14,422	0	47,049	0	0
Delaware	283,298	197,753	0	0	0	0	0	0	19,555
Florida	4,603,077	5,977,706	119,269	57,363	0	0	0	0	0
Hawaii	324,194	160,075	0	0	8,270	0	0	0	9,224
Indiana	1,097,061	1,659,416	0	73,233	0	0	0	0	0
Maine	88,891	284,338	447,553	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marylnd	1,650,912	1,294,344	0	69,396	0	0	0	0	0
Mass.	2,041,668	1,365,440	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michigan	2,712,686	2,693,680	0	56,697	53,978	41,363	0	0	18,779
Minnesta	1,792,441	1,291,712	0	55,215	0	0	0	0	46,377
Miss.	450,749	761,934	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Missouri	1,243,728	1,651,907	0	35,671	20,123	0	0	0	0
Montana	276,305	319,682	0	7,272	4,003	0	0	0	0
Nebraska	0	499,124	436,493	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nevada	701,105	677,046	0	20,881	0	21,316	0	0	0
N.Jersey	2,161,491	1,773,589	17,224	24,242	45,443	0	0	0	9,806
N.Mexico	497,333	405,978	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N.York	4,318,903	2,917,044	39,413	0	0	0	392,395	329,070	0
No. Dak.	121,602	241,569	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ohio	2,650,949	2,857,383	0	195,648	0	0	0	0	0
Pennsy.	3,384,180	3,399,295	0	89,653	66,388	23,621	0	0	0
Rhode Is.	294,665	196,039	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tenn.	1,027,461	1,918,743	61,404	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas	5,031,249	5,990,741	0	267,039	0	0	0	0	0
Utah	464,515	914,700	0	0	0	0	0	0	83,972
Vermont	0	116,512	238,474	4,530	0	0	0	0	3,339
Virginia	2,417,115	2,019,911	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wash.	2,252,577	1,549,187	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W.Va.	207,548	514,079	0	26,075	0	0	0	0	0
Wisc.	1,672,777	1,643,996	28,751	42,315	0	0	0	0	0
Wyoming	63,727	198,418	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	55,498,440	54,077,952	1,403,460	1,025,765	288,495	86,300	439,444	329,070	191,052

2024 GUBERNATORIAL VOTE

	Democratic	Republican	Libertarian	Green	Constitution	other	independent
Delaware	279,585	219,050	0	0	0	0	0
Indiana	1,183,741	1,566,081	129,781	0	0	0	0
Missouri	1,146,173	1,750,802	40,908	22,359	0	0	0
Montana	232,644	354,569	15,191	0	0	0	0
N.Hamp.	360,149	436,122	16,202	0	0	0	0
No. Car.	3,069,499	2,241,310	176,392	49,612	54,738	0	0
No. Dak.	94,043	247,056	0	0	0	0	0
Utah	420,514	781,431	41,164	0	0	27,480	206,868
Vermont	79,217	266,439	0	0	0	4,512	11,782
Wash.	2,143,368	1,709,818	0	0	0	0	0
W. Va.	233,976	459,300	21,228	9,596	16,828	0	0
TOTAL	9,242,909	10,031,978	440,866	81,567	71,566	31,992	218,650

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PRESIDENTIAL VOTE TOTALS

These are almost complete.  Kansas, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island still haven’t released their write-in totals.  Thanks to David Leip’s US Election Atlas for these figures:

Candidate	Party	Vote
Donald Trump	Republican	77,303,568
Kamala Harris	Democratic	75,019,230
Jill Stein	Green	878,265
Robert Kennedy, Jr.	We the People	756,800
Chase Oliver	Libertarian	650,138
Claudia De la Cruz	Soc & Liberation	171,335
Cornel West	Justice for All	91,932
Peter Sonski	Amer Solidarity	45,110
Randall Terry	Constitution	41,365
Shiva Ayyadurai	independent	28,484
Richard Duncan	independent	12,806
Joel Skousen	Constitution	12,787
Jay Bowman	Independent	5,975
Chris Garrity	Independent	5,301
Joseph Kishore	Soc. Equality	4,653
Rachele Fruit	Soc. Workers	4,118
Mattie Preston	Independent	2,858
Lucifer Everylove	Independent	2,653
Blake Huber	Approval Voting	2,196
Michael Wood	Prohibition	1,144
Vermin Supreme	Conservative	929
Laura Ebke	Liberal	859
Bill “Doc”Stodden	Socialist	364
Robert Well	Independent	359

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PRESIDENTIAL VOTE BY REGION FOR LEADING MINOR PARTIES

	Kennedy	Stein	Oliver	La Cruz
West	1.29%	.86%	.52%	.38%
Midwest	.88%	.57%	.49%	.08%
Border	.95%	.68%	.55%	not on
South	.60%	.50%	.42%	.12%
East	.62%	.70%	.43%	.24%
USA	.98%	.64%	.47%	.23%

This chart shows the percentage of the vote received in each region of the nation for last year’s minor party and independent presidential candidates who were on the ballot in places containing at least 40% of all U.S. voters.  The “Border” region is Delaware, D.C., Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma and West Virginia.  The figures only include states in which the candidate was on the ballot.

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GREENS BEAT REPUBLICANS IN D.C.

On November 5, Greens outpolled Republicans in D.C. for Delegate to the U.S. House and City Council At-Large.  For the latter, the vote was:  Green Daryl Moch 29,789; Republican Rob Simmons 24,760.  For Delegate to the U.S. House:  Green Kymone Freeman 21,873; Republican Myrtle Alexander 19,765.

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FLORIDA SPECIAL ELECTIONS

Florida will hold two special elections on April 1 to fill  U.S. House vacancies.  The First District will have a Republican, a Democrat, and an independent.  The Sixth District will have a Republican, a Democrat, a Libertarian, and one independent.  The independents are Randall Terry in the Sixth District and Stephen Broden in the First District.

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MAYOR OF DETROIT TO BE INDEPENDENT FOR GOVERNOR

On December 4, Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit, said he will run as an independent for Governor of Michigan in 2026.