Americans Elect submitted over 1,630,000 signatures earlier this year, to meet a requirement of 1,030,080 valid signatures. The California Secretary of State’s web page has this chart, showing which counties have finished checking the signatures. Los Angeles and San Diego, two of the most three populous counties, have now finished checking the petition. Only fifteen counties still haven’t finished. So far the petition-checking process shows a validity rate of 67.75%, and Americans Elect only needs to have 63.2% valid in order to succeed.
Hopefully this will be a game changer in media coverage for AE.
@1 Yes. There’s been some “okay” media coverage so far, but after AE gets a huge victory by qualifying in the hardest state to petition in, this will probably boost news coverage. Maybe more candidates will declare for the AE nomination, even, cuz only Buddy Roemer is running for the AE nod so far.
Huntsman seems to disqualify himself.
Roemer will never gain any substantial following.
Who will fill the need between Newt and Obama?
Or will AE end up crafting a fine set of boots which no viable candidate will fill?
Was AE’s plan all along to only have a spoiler for one side or the other?
Is Bloomberg acting disinterested, but really the main plan?
Its hard to believe these AE folks are only doing this out of the goodness of their hearts.
I’m certain they have a goal or a wish list of only 1 or 2 candidates.
1. Bloomberg
2. ????
You will notice that duplicates now stand at 53,000 or 5% of the total signatures.
A 3% sample simply won’t pick up most duplicates.
Let’s say you turn in 100,000 signatures. 60,000 of them are good; 5,000 are the first signature that is duplicated; 5,000 are the duplicate; and 30,000 are bad.
If you check 3%, you will get around 1800 of the good signatures; 150 of the first copy and 150 of the second copy of duplicates; and 900 signatures that don’t match. But the duplicates are unlikely to be be for the same person, only 3% or about 5 will.
So the 3% sample will show 2095 good signatures; 5 duplicates (the first signature still counts), and 900 invalid signatures, or 69.8% valid. But in the full count, 65,000 are valid, 5000 are duplicates, and 30,000 are invalid, for a 65.0% valid. The sample count overestimated the final number of signatures by 7.3%.
So you see that the requirement for 10% extra from the sample count is not unreasonable.
AE still should have collected more signatures in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. They ended up having to redouble their efforts in Los Angeles where they ended up with 5.9% duplicates.
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