Rasmussen Reports, like other major polling companies, has done many polls of the Republican Iowa caucuses. According to the Rasmussen polls, five different Republican presidential candidates have enjoyed a lead in Iowa in the period August 4 to the present. At the August 4 poll, Michele Bachmann lead with 22%. In the August 31 poll, Rick Perry led with 29%. In the October 19, Herman Cain lead with 28%. In the November 15 poll, Newt Gingrich lead with 32%. And in the latest poll, from December 13, Mitt Romney leads with 23%.
However, even as of the December 13 poll, 50% of the respondents say they could easily change their mind. The caucus is January 3, 2012.
What SMALL percentage of ALL Electors in the U.S.A. will be voting in the IA party hack robot primary ???
INSANITY controls U.S.A. *politics*.
Polling companies sell their results. Major purchasers include media news entities. Polling numbers which do not change daily are not “news.” Polling companies therefore have every incentive to ensure that polling results change daily, using accepted methods, of course, and making sure that the volatility of the numbers reported doesn’t routinely breech the hypothetical +/- 4% “margin of error.”
Iowa, in particular, is very difficult to poll. Because of the nature of their caucusing, individuals subject themselves to sometimes intense persuasion and even coercion at the caucus itself. They change their minds in the moment. I’ve seen it happen. Effective organization by campaigns can also make the poll numbers blow away like so much dust on the evening of the caucus.
So the polling leading up to the Iowa caucus, consistent with the American process of determining candidates for the two major parties, is just so much bullshit.