The Washington Post has this story, mentioning that last week former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode filed with the Federal Election Commission as a presidential candidate. The Post correctly speculates that Goode will seek the Constitution Party nomination. He is expected to formally announce his candidacy in a week.
So will Goode get more or less votes then Chuck Baldwin, who recieved less then 200,000 votes in 2008. Bob Barr, the libertarian Party candidate recieved, over 500,000 votes. Will both parties do as well this year.
Goode’s vote total goes up with each of the following:
1) He is on the ballot in California as the AIP nominee.
2) Romney wins the GOP nomination.
3) The Constitution Party gets ballot access in several of the states it was not on in 2008.
4) Ron Paul supporters refuse to vote for one of the 2 “major” candidates and see Goode as the best constitutional choice on the ballot.
#2, another possibility for Goode to be on the California ballot would be a Constitution Party lawsuit against the California method for getting a new party on the ballot. California has a deadline for that in early January. There are 17 court precedents around the USA that these deadlines for newly-qualifying parties can’t be earlier than May. There are similar cases pending in Oklahoma and Alabama and some more may be filed soon.
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2 & 3) Everything depends on Rep. Goode being able to climb out of the vest pocket of CP leader/founder Howard Phillips.