On June 1, a poll commissioned for the Detroit News included Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson. See the results here. Thanks to Michael for the link.
On June 1, a poll commissioned for the Detroit News included Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson. See the results here. Thanks to Michael for the link.
Johnson taking 12%! Wow
I suspect a major factor in whether or not Johnson reaches 15 percent in national polls will be the frequency of pollsters including Jill Stein in their polling. When Stein is included, Johnson’s support declines significantly as seen in the recent Monmouth poll of new jersey. Including multiple third party candidates tends to dilute Johnson’s support in poll numbers.
Yes, it’s good to see a poll in Michigan which actually mentions more than two candidates — but why not also include presumptive Green Party nominee Jill Stein and newly-nominated Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle? (Even if Castle has the “US Taxpayers Party” label here — the state won’t let them change from the old name without re-petitioning. . . .)
Which Gary Johnson did the Michigan newspaper ask about?
The Greens and the Constitution Party will fall well short of 50 state ballot access. In fact, the CP is unlikely to be on the ballot in enough states to even theoretically get to 270 electoral votes. It would be better for all polls to be inclusive of all candidates, but since they aren’t it’s not right to have other far more obscure candidates piggyback on the success of Johnson and the LP.
@Chris Powell: Again, while the Greens aren’t currently on as many states as the Libertarians (21 vs. 32), they are up for almost as many electoral votes (293 vs. 332). Taking away the “Senatorial” EC votes means the Green ticket is already qualified to appear before (293-42)/438 or 57.3% of the populatio, while Johnson and Weld are set for (332-64)/438 or 61.2% of the population. By that measure, Greens are hardly “far more obscure” than Libertarians, and there is no need for either one to “piggyback” on the inclusion of the other. Not that that should be necessary. IMO they both qualify for inclusion in debates and polls already — and of course, both parties are pushing for still more ballot access . . . sometimes together, which (also IMO) is as it should be.
Among the CPD’s rules is one that a ticket must be on enough ballots for a majority of Electoral College votes. Were it not for the bogus poll requirement, Johnson would be in already . . . and Stein would likely follow, unless Sanders loses in Philadelphia and finally responds to Stein’s invitation to come over to the Green side and the convention in Houston puts him at the top of that ticket.
And again, I could make a good case for including the Constitution Party Castle-Bradley ticket already too. Any other party with access to enough ballots to win at least 1/4 of the electoral votes can legitimately claim that’s enough to guarantee their Presidential ticket a spot in the House of Representatives if nobody gets an absolute majority. The House picks from the top three, after all, and if Presidential Ticket X has 1/4 of the votes there’s no way more than two other tickets can get ahead of Ticket X.
total Electoral College votes: 538
1/4 of total (rounded up): 135
Ticket A 136 electoral votes
Ticket B 136 electoral votes (minimum to be ahead of Ticket X)
Ticket X 135 electoral votes
total of the above three tickets: 407 electoral votes
total remaining for any other ticket(s): 131 electoral votes
Even if Tickets A, B, and X all have 135 each, that still only leaves 133 for Ticket Y [et al].
So even the “majority standard” is more restrictive than it absolutely needs to be.
INSTANT Civil WAR II if NO majority Prez winner
— i.e. the ROT going to the gerrymander minority rule USA House of Reps —
with all the resulting threats and bribes ???
I.E. gee thanks 1787 – 12 Amdt folks for one more political TIME BOMB —
as if 1861-1865 did not have enough death and destruction.
Who has the more EVIL mouth to set things off — commie Hillary or fascist Donald ???