1. Looks like everyone gained except the Dem party, wonder why?

2. There was a surge in partisan, particularly Democratic registration during 2016. Comparing registration from January to October:

   Dem 28.19% 30.41%
   Rep 33.97% 34.54%
   Ind 36.90% 33.98%
   Lbt 0.79% 0.87%
   Grn 0.14% 0.19%

   Voters can register when they get a driver’s license or change their vehicle registration. Republican-leaning voters are probably more likely to own a car or drive a car. They may also may be more likely to accept the opportunity to register. Some people may be concerned that registering to vote will make them liable to jury duty.

   The registration totals are “Active” voters. An “Inactive” voter is not someone who does not vote. It is someone that election officials can not contact by mail (mail returned, or no forwarding address, etc.). They can not be purged for not voting, but they can be purged after two election cycles without voting.

   Otherwise, voters can only be purged if they are dead; have registered elsewhere; or acknowledge that they have moved. A few years back, the Orange County, California registrar purchased some commercial mailing lists; and was able to contact many former Californians, who confirmed that they had moved.

   An inactive voter can show up and vote. If they are still living at the same address they vote normally. Some voters may be listed as inactive because of a glitch in the mail; others may have moved away temporarily and then moved back; some may moved and fib about a change in address.

   Imagine this sequence:

   Election Clerk (mechanically, since he asks this of every voter), “do you still live at 123 Bleary Eyed Lane?”

   Voter thinks: If I tell the truth, I won’t be able to vote. Why else would they ask? If I respond, “What’s it to you”, they will be tipped off. They’re probably looking for an excuse to stop persons of my party/race/gender/income-level/occupation etc. from voting. The fact that they even ask is a micro-aggression.

   Voter responds, “Yes”

   A voter who has moved within their county may also vote at the polling place of their new residence. In this case they must vote provisionally, but it is not like the case where a voter does not have an ID, and has to show up after the election with ID. Instead, it is simply to allow time to check whether you had voted at your old residence, and check your signature on record. Some of these voters may be listed at active at their old residence, and some may be inactive at their old residence. Inactive voters will be switched to active voters, if they vote.

   It is plausible that the Democratic registration drive picked up some inactive voters or voters who had moved. If you have lived in four different apartments in the last four years, you probably have no idea if you were registered, and if a form was handed to you, you might register. If you have lived in your home for 20 years, you are likely to know if you are registered.

   It is also possible that some voters missed the 29-day deadline before the general election. But it seems implausible that 1.6% of total voters would miss the deadline, since that would multiply to 10%+ of new registrants.

   Whatever the cause, there is a similar increase in registrations immediately following presidential general elections, but not gubernatorial general elections. The increase in registrations during the presidential election years is much greater than in gubernatorial election years. Only 75% of registered voters voted in Arizona.

   In any event, the percentage of October-January increase in active voters that were Democrat was slightly below their share of active voters in October.

   There are also distributional effects. 60% of Arizona voters live in Maricopa County, which is a bit more Republican than the state as a whole (because it is such a dominant share, it can’t be too much different than the state average). The second largest county is Pima County (Tucson). It has about 1/4 the population of Maricopa and is more Democratic. Pima has about the same population as the 11 smallest (of 15 total) counties.

   The counties do not process their registrations in the same way. There was no increase in active voters in Pima County, where they would tend to be a bit more Democratic, and there was an increase in Maricopa County, where they tend to be a bit more Republican. This would provide a shift to the Republicans.

   If you include active and inactive registrations, then the registration of all 4 qualified parties increased slightly:

   Rep: 33.46% to 33.51% +0.05%
   Dem: 29.91% to 29.93% +0.02%
   Lbt: 0.89% to 0.90% +0.01%
   Grn: 0.20% to 0.21% +0.01%
   Oth: 35.55% to 35.45% -0.10%

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