Lou Jacobson has this article about Automatic Voter Registration, which nine states now have, to a certain extent. Automatic Voter Registration is a system in which election officials automatically register every adult citizen known to exist in that state, unless the individual declines. The article discusses whether Automatic Voter Registration helps Democrats or Republicans more. What is clear is that it definitely helps candidates and parties that must petition to get on the ballot, because a much larger percentage of signers will be registered. Thanks to Electionline for the link.
It seems to me that a greater problem causing so-called “voter suppression” is the great lack of meaningful choices on the ballot on election day. Single member districts, gerrymandering, and plurality voting mean that most races are written off and conceded to one party or the other, and only a handful of elections are truly contested.
How do the statists know (or even care in the slightest) if an AVR person is a USA Citizen ???
— esp now with the millions of illegal invaders from other regimes and their kids born out/in of the USA.
The main effect may be to hurt parties dependent on registration to maintain ballot access. Oregon has had AVR the longest, and also produces detailed statistics on its program. Since 2016, persons getting/renewing a drivers license are checked against the statewide voter roll. If they are not registered and qualify (citizen over 18, non-felon), they are sent a notification card. If they don’t return the card, they are registered as non-affiliated. They may also return the card within 21 days to opt out or choose a party.
Cards returned after 21 days are honored, but it is not clear how they are accounted for in the statistics. About 88% of new registrants are being registered as non-affiliated, with only 6.8% Democratic, 4.2% Republican, Independent 1.0%, Libertarian 0.2%, Pacific Green 0.1%, and others (Working Families, Constitution, Progressive, and write-ins) 0.1%.
At the time the program began registration was 24.2% non-affiliated, 38.3% Democratic, 29.6% Republican, 5.0% Independent, Libertarian 0.8%, Pacific Green 0.4%, others 1.7%. In other words, *new* partisan affiliations are about 1/6 of what existing registrations were.
While it is possible to change party registration online, how many persons will actually do so, outside the run-up to presidential primaries every four years?
Oregon also did AVR based on license transactions in 2014 and 2015. About 83% of these persons were already registered, compared to about 67% of current registrations. Those persons would have had the opportunity to register at the time they were getting/renewing a license, or by other means in the one to two years since they had been to the DMV. This suggests about 1/2 of persons were taking the opportunity to register to vote under Motor Voter. Persons from these earlier period were more likely to opt out, and also more likely to choose Republican over Democratic.
This suggests that under Motor Voter, there were four kinds of responses to a query whether they wanted to register:
(1) Yes, I do.
(2) Yeah, sure, since I’m here.
(3) Nah, I’m kind of busy, and I’ve already been here for hours.
(4) No, I don’t.
(1) Yes, I do. Under the old system, they would have been asked for a party affiliation. They might have even deliberately updated the address on their license in order to update their voting address. Under the new system, they will get a card in the mail. If they ask about registering, they will be told that it is automatic and they will get a confirmation card in the mail. Most millennials have never mailed anything, and will be even less likely to do so, if they are advised that they don’t have to do anything. So these voters still end up registered, but non-affiliated, and may have some vague intent to choose a party … later.
(2) Yeah, sure, since I’m here. These voters would be more likely to choose non-affiliated, or perhaps Independent, or on a whim Progressive or Libertarian. Under the new scheme, they will be content to be non-affiliated.
(3) Nah, I’m kind of busy, and I’ve already been here for hours. These voters were indifferent in the first place. They are less likely to vote, even if as in Oregon they are sent a ballot. If they are a hoarder, you will find an old ballot in their house, marked for Harold Stassen, but not mailed.
(4) No, I don’t. They may have a reason for not being registered, such as not wanting to be called for jury duty, having fewer public records, or religious reasons. Of the persons who could have registered under motor voter in 2014 and 2015, but had not, 11.2% had opted out, and 6.8% had actively selected a party. This compares to those who were contacted immediately after getting/updating a license, where 6.2% opted out, and 11.7% chose a party.
If ever there was an invitation to fraud, this is it.