On Thursday, September 16, the Appellate Division of the New York Supreme Court, Division 4, heard arguments in Brown v Erie County Board of Elections. The hearing only lasted twenty minutes. Four judges are on the panel. One of them was clearly inclined to uphold the May petition deadline for independent candidates. The other three judges mostly didn’t reveal their thoughts.

Because Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown won this case in the state trial court, the ruling of the lower court will stand unless at least three of the four judges vote to reverse it.

Meanwhile, the Second Circuit has the same issue before it in Meadors v Erie County Board of Elections, 21-2137. A ruling from that court is likely on Friday, September 17. The three judges are Debra Livingston, a Bush Jr. appointee; Denny Chin, an Obama appointee; and William J. Nardini, a Trump appointee. There is no oral argument in the Second Circuit case.

If both the state and federal courts fail to grant injunctive relief against the May deadline, then the only candidate on the November ballot will be India Walton, the Democratic Party nominee. UPDATE: see this story.