As of January 30, the Alabama Libertarian Party has 49,000 raw signatures on its party petition for 2022. It needs 51,588 valid. The deadline is in early May 2022. Assuming the party qualifies, 2022 will be the first election in Alabama since 2002 that voters will have seen someone who is not a Republican or Democratic nominee on their ballot for statewide office (other than president, which requires 5,000 signatures for an independent).
They waited too long. Long time independent conservative voters now feel well represented by the GOP ever since it has become a Trump Nationalist workers party. There was room for a conservative third party while the GOP nominated people like Bush, Cheney, McCain, Romney, and Dole. Now not so much.
The Constitution Party is fully conservative and is more likely to end up fading away because of the current trends in the GOP. The Libertarian Party however still has a role to play as an economically conservative but socially moderate/liberal party which can attract Independents and former members of the GOP who are horrified by the totalitarian nature of the current GOP. As a Green who recognizes that conservative economic ideas and the people who believe them aren’t going away anytime soon, I’d much rather have the Libertarians representing such ideas than the Republicans.
Best of luck to the Alabama Libertarians in their petitioning efforts.
Nevertrump rhinos are few and far in between anywhere, but especially in Alabama. Maybe they should try Massachusetts or something.
If voters there have no use for third party candidates, that will be apparent in the election. That’s what elections are for.
In my mind, one of the benefits of petitioning for party status is to ensure that your candidates get on the ballot in the same fashion as the two major parties. So the question in my mind is how much is this effort worth it? Will the Libertarian party qualify for party status only to lose it as a result of poor performance in the 2022 midterms? I guess my question really boils down to if the petition succeeds, what do they need to do to retain access beyond 2022?
The current ballot retention requirement in Alabama is 20% of the vote for any statewide office. If the D’s and R’s both field candidates for every statewide office that is up in 2022, than the Libertarian Party has little to no chance of retaining ballot access. If there are any races for statewide offices where one of the major parties does not file a candidate, but the Libertarian Party does, the LP stands a better chance of retaining ballot access.
It’s already apparent Walter. We get third party candidates on the ballot for President and they get some of their lowest numbers nationally in Alabama and in neighboring states. And Alabama has straight ticket voting and 20% for retention. They are wasting their time and money on this petition.
There is a good chance the petition will fail. And no way they get retention.
INDIVIDUALS are nominated and elected — NOT *parties*.
Ongoing brain dead so-called lawyers and judges since 1968 Williams v Rhodes –
mere 54 years of Conlaw MORONS at work.
The last time the Alabama Libertarian Party did the petition, in 2000, the party did get over 20% for one statewide office and therefore was on the ballot automatically in 2002. Back then the Alabama Democratic Party was stronger. In 2018, there were eleven partisan statewide races with no Democrat running. In 2020, when there are fewer statewide offices, there were six partisan statewide races with no Democrat running. In 2014 the Democrats didn’t even run anyone for US Senate.
Also, assuming the 2022 petition succeeds, the party will run some candidates for partisan county office, and if they get 20% then the party will be on the ballot automatically in 2024 for county office.
Also, it will be lots of work for the Alabama election officials to check so many signatures, and in an effort to reduce that work in the future, elections officials, including the Secretary of State, might ask the legislature to reduce either the petition or the vote test. That has happened in other states. Few people realize that over half the states have eased their party retention laws during the last 45 years. The median vote test in 1976 was 5%. Now it is 2%.
“Richard Winger on January 30, 2022 at 5:24 pm said:
The last time the Alabama Libertarian Party did the petition, in 2000, the party did get over 20% for one statewide office and therefore was on the ballot automatically in 2002.”
They just barely made it. It think there was a statewide judge race where one of the major parties did not field a candidate. When the 2002 election came around, the D’s and R’s were sure to run candidates for every statewide office, and the LP failed to get the 20%, and lost ballot access.
So I think whether or not the party maintains ballot access is going to depend upon whether or not the D’s and R’s run candidates for the all of the statewide offices.
In 2000, a lot of conservative independents were not happy with the Republican Party, which is not the case now. Alabama has a lot of conservative independents. Very, very few nevertrump rhinos.
I don’t remember their being 11 partisan offices with no Democrat in 2018. What all were they? But more important: the barely 20% that the libertarian got for one office in 2000 includes a lot of Democrats who did not have a candidate. But now that the Democrats are weaker AND conservatives are happier with the GOP there are fewer votes for a libertarian to get if the Democrats don’t run anyone.
Sure the legislature could make the petition easier to make things easier on the SOS. They could also make it even harder so third parties don’t even try. In other states the legislature made it easier but in Alabama they only made it harder. The law now is a compromise from what the legislature wanted to do because the governor at the time Fob James said he would veto 5% petition and 25% retention. It would probably pass now. They could also make it 5% of all registered voters, add a shorter petition period, and do other things to make it harder.
The eleven statewide offices in 2018 with no Democrat were: Associate Justice, Supreme Court, place one; ditto, place two; ditto, place three; Treasurer; Agriculture Commissioner; Ct of Civil Appeals, place one; ditto, place two; ditto, place three; Ct of Criminal Appeals, place one; ditto, place two; ditto, place three.
Arthur, the bill you are talking about in 1995 did not raise the vote test from 20% to 25%. It was House bill 66, sponsored by Democrats.
The 2020 census shows that 27% of Alabama residents are African-American, which is up from the previous census.
Most black voters are not very enthusiastic about voting this year, and more are starting to go Republican again, but the bigger trend will just be to sit it out altogether. There are virtually no competitive races anywhere in Alabama and Biden and the Democrats have failed to deliver on their promises at the national level so Republican voters will turn out a lot more, in addition to it generally being the case in a midterm that the party which does not have the presidency does better at turnout.
The average US House race with a lone opponent to a Libertarian candidate in 2000 was around 12%. Now it’s around 20%. I know the same trend exists for state legislature and presumably it would hold true for statewide elections as well. The trend with both major party opponents on the ballot is much less conclusive.
Back in 2000, Democrats were more likely to vote for Republicans over Libertarians than they are today. And the reverse is also true.
In other words, with a lone opponent and due to the hyper partisan nature of today’s politics, it is more likely that the LP would meet the 20% threshold today than in 2000 even while potentially doing more poorly in elections against both major parties.
None of those numbers are from Alabama since there have been no libertarians on for US house or state legislature since 2002.
In 2006 a Libertarian was on the ballot for legislature in Alabama. But Dick Clark was running in a district with a Democratic opponent and a Republican opponent. Clark got 3.12%.
The deep south states have the lowest percentages for libertarian and other third party and independent presidential candidates in the last few elections. Alabama has a straight ticket also. Since it’s a midterm year with an unpopular Democrat president who has not delivered his promises and the worst inflation since Jimmy Carter all signs show that black and Democrat turnout will be low. Then out of the ones that do show up, a lot will just click the donkey and leave. They will not go down the ballot to vote for a Libertarian in races where there is no Democrat.
A lot of whites, conservatives and Republicans will show up, not because they really need to, but just because they are mad at Biden and the Democrats and 2020 election fraud, and want to show up to vote Republican to register that and to keep the election from being stolen by the Democrats – not that it will be in Alabama, but most people don’t look at it that deep. So bottom line, it’s not looking like a good year for Libertarians to retain ballot access. That is of course if their petition even succeeds to start with.
In 2020, Jo Jorgensen got 1.18% in the entire nation, and in Alabama she got 1.08%, despite the handicap of being listed third and having no party column and no party label other than “independent.” In 2022, assuming the petition succeeds, the Libertarian nominees will all be listed second in the ballot, underneath the Democratic nominee but above the Republican nominee. Also the straight-ticket device will list the Democrats first, Libertarians next, and then Republicans. That is because Alabama uses alphabetical order of party name to determine ballot order. All parties always have the word “Alabama” listed first, so the tie in ballot order is broken by Democrats being first in the alphabet, then Libertarian, than Republican. Alabama has an office-group ballot so the effect of the straight-ticket device is limited, relative to states with the device in combination with a party-column ballot.
No party label other than independent probably did her a favor. She most likely would have had fewer votes had she been listed as libertarian. Presidential years are when non-Republican demographics are most apt to vote.
The first midterm of any president is when the swing is strongest against them, especially when the president is a democrat – see 1994, 2010 – and those presidents were more popular than the hapless Biden. That will count for a lot more than ballot order. The biggest number of voters will be there to say FJB , check the elephant and leave. After 4 years of Trump and by then almost 2 disappointing years of Biden, the opposition is (and will be even more) exhausted and demoralized; more than usual will stay home and of the habitual voters most will do the bare minimum, check the donkey and leave.
Having no party label traditionally hurts Libertarians. Tennessee, the state where the Libertarian presidential nominee has only once had a party label other than “independent” is generally one of the weakest percentages for Libertarian presidential nominees. In 2020 Jo only got .98% in Tennessee.
How did TN rank among states in LP presidential nominee performance in the year when they got the L ballot label as opposed to other years?
In 2000 only, Tennessee had a law that said a party label should be on the ballot for nominees of parties that had polled at least 5,000 votes for its presidential nominee in Tennessee in 1996. So the Reform, Libertarian and Green Party 2000 presidential nominees had a party label in tiny print underneath their names. But they were all still in a column headed “independent candidates” in much bigger print. Harry Browne got .21% in Tennessee and .36% in the entire nation.
The value of the party label is stronger for office other than president. The Green and Constitution Parties had party labels (without being in an independent column) in 2012 and 2014 in Tennessee. In 2014 the Green Party got 1.37% for Governor and .91% for US Senate. In 2012 it got 1.66% for Senator. Yet in 2010, when its gubernatorial nominee just had “independent”, he only got .12%.
The Constitution Party got 2.63% for US Senate and 1.96% for Governor in Tennessee in 2014. In Tennessee in 2012, it got .80% for US Senate. It had never run for those offices before 2012 in Tennessee.
That’s not enough data to draw a firm conclusion of any kind, especially given that the candidates and opposition differed each time. It doesn’t sound like it helped Browne. Did the ballot say that he lived in Tennessee, incidentally?
Are you sure it wasn’t because Jorgensen was a terrible candidate?
I think independent is a more popular term or description generally.