Siena Research Institute released poll results on October 15 for the U.S. House special election, 23rd district, in New York. The election is November 3, 2009. It shows Bill Owens, Democrat, with 33%; Dede Scozzafava, Republican, 29%; Doug Hoffman, Conservative, 23%; undecided 15%. There are no other candidates on the ballot. The district is in the northeast corner of New York state, adjacent to Canada.
This could bode well for Owens. Siena polls have notoriously shown stronger support for Republicans than the actual elections prove to indicate. I don’t know why this happens. The real sentiments probably are something like Owens 37, Scozzafava 25. Hoffman seems to be running a heck of a campaign. However, I think He’ll lose about eighty percent to the other candidates. Eighty percent of that will probably go to Scozzafava. Or maybe, because it’s an odd year, he’ll keep a third. My prediction Scozzafava: 46 Owens: 41 Hoffman: 13