On September 3, USA Today/Suffolk released a presidential poll of likely voters that includes the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Justice for All, Green, and Libertarian nominees. See it here. Scroll down to item ten.
On September 3, USA Today/Suffolk released a presidential poll of likely voters that includes the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Justice for All, Green, and Libertarian nominees. See it here. Scroll down to item ten.
That’s one screwed up poll. I been aggregating these polls on my own. Trump has consistently done better than both Kamala and Biden amongst independents. Yet this poll suggests that Kamala is getting 55% of the moderate vote while Trump is getting 25%. Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver are all to the left of Trump. There a lot suspect with this poll. “Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates”, Echelon Insights, YouGov/Yahoo News, and the Wall Street Journal polls seem more accurate.
Riffing on Jeff?
1. Per past presidential elections, I find it very hard to believe that Stein, as a Green, is getting almost 2x the vote of Oliver, as a Libertarian, unless all the Mises Mice are staying home. Ditto on West vs Oliver.
2. Methodology? Landline only on phone? Number of callbacks? Calibrating the results for things like that?
Yeah, that’s the other thing. In the 4 polls I mentioned, (plus the Ipsos/ABC News which is also unreliable), Stein and West are averaging at 1%, same as Oliver. There’s no WAY that the Green candidate and a minor 3rd party candidate are going to get the same amount of votes as the Libertarian even if half of the libertarians vote for Trump or for a different 3rd party. Plus, if super Liberal Stein and West are taking 3% of the vote and liberals are only 28.3% of the voters, then there’s no way that Kamala is getting over 47% of the vote when she is pushing Soviet Union price controls.
Any poll that has Kamala winning by 4 points or has Trump earning less than 44% of the vote is just straight up wrong. Trump was averaging 43% against Biden when Kennedy was still at 9%. Trump crushed Biden so hard in the debate that Biden had to drop and then Kennedy endorsed Trump. No one switched from Trump to Kamala after Biden dropped. There has been no huge controversy for Trump since Kamala was switched in. There’s no possible way for Trump to not to be gaining support especially this close to the election. This is the time period for people to start coming home to their “lesser of two evils” candidate.
Tl; Dr “ussr yesterday” is fake news.
The Hamas vote will give Stein a boost. That’s why she is higher. Chase Oliver’s base is child abuse supporters and covid mandates lovers, essentially the same vote as the Democrats and other commie parties.