Thom Hartmann, a well-known host of a radio show about politics, and editor of The Hartmann Report, a daily newsletter about politics, said on December 30 that Donald Trump only won the presidency in 2016 because of Jill Stein’s Green Party candidacy. He said, “Stein had no such moral compunction with her Green Party candidacy in 2016. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin provided Trump’s margin of victory in the Electoral College over Hillary Clinton that year, and, in each of the states, Stein polled more votes than Trump’s margin.”
Hartmann appears not to know about the 2016 exit polls, even though they have been widely reported. The New York Times mentioned them in a 2023 article about Cornel West, and there are many other media mentions from late in 2016. The exit pollsters asked Stein Voters whom they would have voted for if only Trump and Clinton had been on the ballot. 25% said they would have voted for Hillary Clinton, but 14% said they would have voted for Donald Trump. Therefore, when one does the arithmetic, one finds that Stein voters did not change the electoral vote outcome in any state.
You post a comment from a communist radio host, using a communist fake news newspaper as a source.
I’m sure he knows about the exit polls, but he wants to peddle in spoiler theorist nonsense rather than facts; standard unDemocratic Party hostility towards the concept of free and fair multiparty elections.
Not to mention the Gary Johnson voters, more of whom would have voted for Trump than Clinton. Or how FairVote found out that 66% of Stein 2024 voters preferred Trump, with only 21% preferring Harris!
Boy is Thomm stupid.
How reliable is exit polling on this issue? For example, in Wisconsin, 3047 persons were polled. Since Stein got 1% of the vote that would mean we would expect 30 voters admitted voting for Stein. If the percentages of second choice voters holds true, then 7 would have voted for Clinton, and 4 would have voted Trump. and 19 would not have voted.
When was the question about a two-way race asked? On CNN, it is presented after almost all the other questions. If you were asked, “Is Hillary Clinton a witch?” would you be inclined to indicate Clinton as second choice?
Richard Winger is drawing a conclusion from a very tiny sample that may have all kinds of self-selection biases with voters who might be able to accurately recall their thinking.
It’s not the only place or time such exit polls were done.
The general conclusion is that it’s a myth that most Green or Nader voters would otherwise vote Democrat or that most libertarians would otherwise vote Republican.
Many would stay home.
And many Green/Nader voters would vote Republican, and many Libertarians would vote Democrat, if their first choice is not on the ballot.
Because people’s votes are not as simple as the one dimensional left right spectrum.
@Duh,
Jill Stein was the Green candidate in 2016, not Ralph Nader.
I doubt there is enough evidence in exit polling to make a conclusion. Exit pollsters corroborate their polls with precinct results. But with Stein at 1%, if you polled 100 voters as they exited, and none or two said they voted for Stein is it an anomaly? No.
If 40% of the precinct voted for Trump, and 60% or 20% told pollsters that they had voted for Trump you would expect the results to be thrown out. If 38% or 42% told pollsters they had voted for Trump, they would likely adjust the polling to match the actual result.
My comment was general, not specific to 2016. That’s why I said both Greens and Nader, including when he ran as an independent. And that’s also why exit polls are conclusive on this, because there have been many of them in many years and places , not just in one state or year, that add up to my conclusion.
Is that why you began your comment with “not the only place or time such exit polls were done” as in different states and different years?
Yes.
Duh!
It has been clearly established by decades of polling data that Republicans and Democrats take votes from opposition parties.
That was before real Americans took over the Republican Party thanks to Liberator, Savior, Peacemaker President Trump, blessed be His name.