Political Science Research on Polarization Still Shows Top-Two States Are Among the Most Heavily Polarized

Political scientists Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty have done more work on polarization in state legislatures than any other researchers in this decade. Their massive study of polarization can be seen in the Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, 2022, vol. 3, at pages 343-370. The title of their paper is “Two Decades of Polarization in American State Legislatures”. It finds the five most polarized state legislatures to be those of Colorado, California, Arizona, Texas, and Washington. See page 352. See the article here.

California and Washington state are the two states that use a top-two system. Proponents of top-two systems have always argued that top-two systems reduce polarization, but the date in the paper rebuts this idea.

Nebraska is the only state that has a non-partisan state legislature. Page 356 of the paper says, “Nebraska has polarized extremely rapidly.”

Oklahoma Supreme Court Says Top-Two Initiative May Begin to Gather Signatures

On September 16, the Oklahoma Supreme Court said the proponents of a top-two initiative may begin to circulate their petition. In re Initiative Petition No. 448, State Question No. 836, case no. 123007. Here is the opinion.. It concludes with “The challenge to the proposed ballot title is premature at this stage. We therefore hold that IP 448 is legally sufficient for submission to the People of Oklahoma for their signatures.”

Opponents of the initiative had complained about the use of the term “open primary” to describe the top-two system. “Open primary” has been defined in U.S. Supreme Court opinions and political science textbooks for many decades as a system in which each party has its own primary ballot and its own nominees, but any voter is free to choose any party primary. The initiative is not an “open primary” under the traditional vocabulary. But the Court says that doesn’t matter because the description of the initiative does explain that parties wouldn’t have their own nominees, so the term can be used.

Oklahoma, like most states with the initiative process, has a long tradition that challenges to the constitutionality of a ballot measure should be made after it passes, not before.

Plaintiffs in New Jersey Ballot Format Lawsuit File Brief

On September 26, the plaintiffs in Kim v Hanlon, 3:24cv-1098, filed this brief. It argues that the plaintiffs are entitled to get declaratory relief against the old New Jersey primary ballot format. The judge already enjoined the old ballot format last year. The only remaining question is whether he will now declare the old format to be unconstitutional.

New California Registration Data

On September 16, the California Secretary of State released a registration tally as of September 5, 2025. See it here.

Percentages for the qualified parties: Democratic 44.96%, Republican 25.26%, American Independent 4.05%, Libertarian 1.01%, Peace & Freedom .64%, Green .49%.

At the last tally, which was as of February 10, 2025, the percentages for the qualified parties were: Democratic 45.27%, Republican 25.22%, American Independent 3.91%, Libertarian 1.02%, Peace & Freedom .62%, Green .48%.

The numbers for some parties trying to qualify are: American Solidarity 676, Common Sense 15,454, Constitution 226, Forward 1,096. At the older tally, their numbers had been: American Solidarity 632, Common Sense 17,039, Constitution 218, Forward 621.

There are probably still at least 45,000 voters registered in the No Labels Party, but No Labels didn’t retain its political body status, so one can’t know how many No Labels members there are. It is very easy to retain political body status. The group merely needs to send in a new letter to the Secretary of State with an updated list of state party officers.