The most significant vote in the U.S. House this year was on May 4, when the U.S. House passed a bill revising health care by four votes. No Democrat voted for the bill. Twenty Republicans voted against the bill. They include one from Arizona, one from Colorado, one from Florida, one from Kentucky, three from New Jersey, two from New York, one from North Carolina, two from Ohio, four from Pennsylvania, one from Texas, one from Virginia, and two from Washington. See this Roll Call story describing and listing each of these Republicans.

Classifying these twenty Republicans by the method in which they won the Republican nomination in 2016, one finds nine were nominated in a closed primary, five in a semi-closed primary, four in an open primary, and two in a top-two system.

This observation matches research conducted by political scientists, showing there is no correlation between type of primary system, and how elected officials behave. Here is an article by Jon Fleischman on why all fourteen Republican members of the House from California voted for the health care bill. Thanks to Rob Richie for suggesting this blog post.

On May 5, Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin signed SB 145. It alters ballot access for independent presidential candidates, and the presidential nominees of unqualified parties. The old law was a petition of 3% of the last presidential vote, which would have been 43,590 signatures for 2020.

The new law is either a very large filing fee, or a petition of 3% of the last gubernatorial vote. No one can know how many signatures that will be, because the 2018 gubernatorial election hasn’t happened yet. But for 2016 that requirement was 24,745.

No one knows what the 2020 filing fee will be, because the legislature hasn’t finished dealing with the bills that raise the filing fee, SB 323 and HB 1564. They are both in conference committee. Probably the 2020 presidential filing fee will either be $17,500 or $35,000.

For the first time in the history of U.S. government-printed ballots, there are now no states which require support from a percentage of the electorate to get on for president (using the easier method in each state) that is in excess of 2% of the last vote cast. For purposes of this observation, I assume that it is easier to pay the fee than to get 24,745 valid signatures. In 2016, when the Libertarian Party got that many signatures on its Oklahoma party petition, it cost the party $100,000 to pay for the drive.

Even though the original ballot access laws passed starting in 1888 were much easier than today’s laws, even then there were always a few severe states. The original laws of California and Nevada each required a petition of 3% of the last vote cast. Thanks to E. Zachary Knight for the news about SB 145.

On May 6, the Virginia Libertarian Party held a state convention and nominated Cliff Hyra for Governor. See this story. Because the Virginia Libertarian Party has never been ballot-qualified, it must submit 10,000 signatures to put him on the ballot. The petition drive had been underway for several weeks and is expected to succeed. The signatures are due in June 2017.

In 2013, the Libertarian Party also petitioned for Governor, and polled 6.55% for that office. In every other state that has a vote test except Alabama, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, New Jersey, and Washington, 6.55% for Governor would have been enough to create or maintain a ballot-qualified party. However, the Virginia vote test is 10%.

If the Libertarian petition succeeds, the party will have been on the ballot two elections in a row for Governor. No other minor party has managed to be on the ballot for Virginia Governor, two elections in a row, since the Socialist Party was on in 1953, 1949, 1945, and 1941. Back then the petition for that office, for independent candidates and the nominees of unqualified parties, was only 250 signatures.