Bloomberg Politics Article Highlights Deficiencies in Fox News’ August 6 Debate Criteria

This Bloomberg Politics article authored by Steven Yaccino notes problems with the Fox News Republican debate criteria. Fox News still has not said which polls it will depend on to determine which Republicans will be invited into its August 6 debate. By contrast, CNN, which will host the September debate, has already said which polls it will use.

The article also quotes statisticians who say that using polls to determine the top ten, at a time when many polls show ties for eight, ninth and tenth place, is arbitrary. One statistician is quoted as saying, “Methodologically, they might as well be drawing straws.” Also the story explains that some presidential primaries are open, some are semi-closed, and some are closed. Yet a national poll can’t account for differences in the various state primary systems. Therefore, the decision of various polls to either include or exclude certain classes of voters (such as independents, or members of other parties) may determine the results; there is no obvious best way to handle this in a nationwide poll.

UPDATE: also see this story, in which a Fox spokesperson says the network will use “a range of quality polls”, which does not answer any of the objections mentioned in the Bloomberg story.

Washington State’s Top-Two System is Correlated with Dysfunction in Legislature

Washington state’s legislature is in the ninth day of its third special session this year. The legislature has sat more days in 2015 than in any previous calendar year since Washington became a state in 1889. The extended sessions are mostly related to deadlock over the state budget. Special sessions are called when the regular legislative session can’t get its work done. Usually the work that doesn’t get done in regular sessions is passing the budget.

Washington has been using the top-two system starting in 2008. There were two special legislative sessions in 2010, two in 2011, two in 2012, three in 2013, and three this year. Prior to the onset of the top-two system, there had only been six years in Washington history that needed three special sessions. Here is the data going back to 1889.

Political scientist Boris Shor showed in August 2014 that Washington state has the nation’s fourth most polarized legislature. Here is a story about the current special session.

Pennsylvania Gets an Independent for State Treasurer

On June 26, the Pennsylvania Senate voted to confirm Timothy Reese as Treasurer of the state. He is a registered independent. Treasurer is an elected partisan statewide office in Pennsylvania. That office is on the ballot in presidential election years. It will be interesting to see if Reese runs for a full term next year, and if he runs as an independent candidate. Only one Senator voted against Reese. Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, had nominated him back in April 2015, but it took the Senate quite a while to act on the nomination.

New Louisiana Registration Data

The Secretary of State has released current registration data. It shows: Democratic 46.25%; Republican 28.01%; Libertarian .39%; Green .072%; Reform .048%; independent and other 25.23%.

The percentages just prior to the November 2014 election were: Democratic 46.79%; Republican 27.69%; Libertarian .36%; Green .069%; Reform .049%; independent and other 25.05%. Thanks to Randall Hayes for the new data.