This Suffolk University Poll shows that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied, if respondents are not asked about any candidates except those two. But when Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included in the poll, Clinton has a 4-point lead. Currently the Green Party is ballot-qualified in Ohio. The Libertarian Party is not on the ballot, but is hoping the Sixth Circuit will put it on the ballot; the decision is expected in August. In the meantime Johnson is circulating the independent petition in Ohio. Thanks to Political Wire for the link.
David Gill, an independent candidate for U.S. House in the Illinois 13th district, has been challenged off the ballot. He needs 10,754 valid signatures and he was found to have only 8,593. According to this story, he will soon file a lawsuit challenging the number of signatures needed by independents for U.S. House in Illinois.
In all of Illinois history, no petitioning candidate for U.S. House in the general election has ever overcome a petition requirement greater than 9,698, if the petition was challenged. The toughest petition requirement ever met by an Illinois petitioning candidate who was challenged was the 9,698 required in 1974 in the 15th district. That candidate was K. Douglas Lassiter. Thanks to Phil Huckelberry for the link.
The Commission on Presidential Debates’ 15% polling requirement is surprisingly arbitrary, when one actually reads it and thinks about it. Law Professor Derek Muller analyzes this here.
On July 20, an en banc panel of all 15 full-time Fifth Circuit judges issued an opinion in Veasey v State of Texas, 14-41127. Nine of the fifteen voted that the Texas law requiring certain kinds of government photo-ID law have a racially disparate effect, and therefore the law violates Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. Most members of the majority held that Texas legislators did not intend to discriminate, but that the law in reality does discriminate.
The decision is significant because ten of the fifteen judges are appointees of Republican presidents. All of the judges appointed by Democratic presidents were in the majority, but also four Republican appointees were in the majority. Those Republican appointees are Judges W. Eugene Davis, Edward Prado, Leslie Southwick, and Catharina Haynes. The majority opinion is 86 pages. Two judges in the majority dissented and said they believe the legislature acted with discriminatory intent, and each wrote separately. The judges who wanted to uphold the law wrote several dissents. The main dissent is 68 pages long; another dissent is three pages; yet another is six pages. The entire package has 203 pages.
The majority does not strike down the Texas law, but says it must be changed so that persons who cannot get the required ID must have some means of voting anyway. The majority sends the case back to the U.S. District Court for that Court to fashion a specific remedy. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.
On July 20, U.S. District Court Judge David Campbell refused to enjoin the new Arizona law that requires a very large number of write-ins in the primary of a small qualified party, in order for those candidates to be considered nominated. He did not decide the constitutionality of the new law. He said he needs more evidence. Ironically, if the Arizona Libertarian primary results in a complete failure of any Libertarian to receive enough write-in votes to be nominated, that is the sort of evidence that might eventually win the case. The primary is August 30. The case is Libertarian Party of Arizona v Reagan, 2:16cv-1019.