On January 9, the Illinois legislature passed a bill for a special statewide election in November 2016 for Comptroller. The outgoing Governor, Pat Quinn, has already asked for this bill, so it seems certain he will sign it before he leaves office.
This will mean three statewide offices will be on the November 2016 ballot in Illinois: President, U.S. Senator, and Comptroller. Any party that polls 5% for any of them will be automatically on the 2018 ballot for statewide office only.
Dave Weigel has this analysis at Bloomberg Politics on the California U.S. Senate race for 2016. Because incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer won’t run for re-election, it is likely that four or five prominent Democrats might run for the seat. The analysis says if there are two strong Republicans, it is possible the two Republicans might place first and second in the primary, eliminating all Democrats from the November ballot due to California’s top-two system.
Of course, Democrats understand this, and the party is virtually certain to pre-select no more than three leading Democratic candidates and to use every possible device to squeeze out any other prominent Democrats. This is why top-two systems actually create less competition than normal systems do for the members of the two major parties. Thanks to Thomas Jones for the link.
UPDATE: here is a second article, by Jonathan Bernstein, making many of the same points. The title of this article is “California Faces Insane Senate Race in 2016.”
On January 8, U.S. District Court Judge Brian Morris refused to enjoin a Montana law that allows any registered voter to help choose Republican Party officers in the primary. Ravalli County Republican Central Committee v McCulloch, cv14-58. Montana does not have registration by party. The order says there is yet no evidence that any voters who don’t consider themselves Republicans are voting in elections for party officers. Thus, the case will need a trial.
Political scientists Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos, Eric M. McGhee, and Steven Rogers, have posted “The Realities of Electoral Reform” at this link. Click on the “download” button. The study uses data on voter preferences by legislative and congressional district to determine whether various kinds of election laws improve or worsen the fit between public opinion in a district and the behavior of that district’s representatives. The assumption is that it is desirable that the voting behavior of state legislators and members of Congress ought to match public opinion in his or her district or state.
Page 38 of the study presents the data for various kinds of primary system. The data shows that there is a better fit between public opinion in a district, and the representative chosen by that district, in closed primary states than in open primary and top-two primary states. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.
According to this story, British Prime Minister David Cameron says he won’t debate in April 2015 (in advance of the Parliamentary election of May 2015) unless the Green Party leader is included in the first debate. That would mean five candidates instead of four in the first debate. Thanks to Thomas Jones for the link.
