The Los Angeles Times has this op-ed, published October 2, by Ted Rall. Rall has been an editorial cartoonist for many decades. His column says California and other low-turnout states will never match the higher turnout of most other democratic countries, until there are more choices on the ballot.
On October 4, an NBC News/Marist Poll showed that Greg Orman, independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Kansas, has increased his lead over incumbent Republican Pat Roberts to ten points. See here. Scroll down to page five: Orman 48%; Roberts 38%; Libertarian Randall Batson 5%; other 1% (which would need to be write-in votes, because only three candidates are on the ballot); undecided 9%.
Assuming Orman wins, the result will be historic. He would be the first independent ever elected by popular vote to the U.S. Senate who had not already been elected to statewide office in that state.
Open-minded supporters of top-two, who support top-two because they sincerely believe that top-two helps independent candidates, should notice that if Kansas had a top-two system, Orman’s victory would not have been possible. Orman was only at 14% in the SurveyUSA poll on July 25, in third place behind Roberts at 38% and Democratic nominee Chad Taylor at 33%. The Kansas primary was on August 4. Of course, Kansas does not have a top-two system, so the fact that Orman was in third place at the time did not injure him. But if Kansas had a top-two system, Orman would have been eliminated from the general election ballot on August 4.
Even two weeks after the Kansas primary, an August 19 Public Policy Poll showed Orman still in third place, but he was catching up. Roberts was at 32%; Taylor was at 25; Orman 23%. The normal default in is for the vast majority of U.S. voters to assume that they will be voting for a Democrat or a Republican. For a minor party or independent candidate to overcome that default position takes an enormous amount of luck, energy, hard work, and above all, time. It takes time for public opinion to decide that, yes, in this case, the normal default pattern will be overcome. Supporters of top-two might say that if Kansas had a top-two system, Orman could simply have done all his advertising much earlier in the year. But the key to Orman’s success is not his advertising. The key to his success so far is that revelations about both major party nominees came out in the middle of the season, partly after the primary. A top-two system shuts out candidates before the public learns these revelations. Timing is essential in election campaigns, and top-two shuts the door on outsiders far too early in the system. If Oregon were to adopt a top-two system, the results would be even worse, because whereas the Kansas primary is in August, the Oregon primary is in May.
On October 3, the last briefs were filed in U.S. District Court over whether the Ohio Libertarian gubernatorial ticket should be on the November ballot. Here is the Libertarian brief. Here is the brief of the Secretary of State. Here is the brief of the Kasich campaign, which caused the protest to be filed against the Libertarians (this was not known until September 27).
Pete Peterson, the Republican running for California Secretary of State, has now again said that he wants to restore write-in space to the general election ballot for Congress and partisan state office (California still has write-in space for all other offices). See this column by Peterson in Fox & Hounds. Peterson had said this earlier in a Secretary of State PPIC candidate forum in Sacramento on September 11.
Unfortunately, no newspaper in California has yet informed its readers of Peterson’s stand on this issue, or the fact that so far at least, his Democratic opponent, State Senator Alex Padilla, does not favor restoring write-in space. California and Louisiana are the only two states that ever had write-in space and then abolished it.
There will be a Secretary of State candidates’ debate in Berkeley, on Thursday, October 9, at 2299 Piedmont, Berkeley, adjacent to the U.C. Berkeley campus. The event is in International House, in the Chevron Auditorium, at 6:30 p.m. The event is free but registration in advance is required; use this link. Individuals who live in the San Francisco Bay Area may wish to attend. If members of the audience are allowed to ask questions, perhaps Senator Padilla can also be pressed on the write-in issue. If California were to restore write-ins, minor party members could continue campaigning during the general election season, by appealing for write-in votes.
The Peterson column weakly defends the top-two system, but Peterson kindly linked to two columns by Joe Mathews that make strong criticisms of California’s top-two system.
California voters defeated a top-two initiative in 2004, Proposition 62. Proposition 62 permitted write-ins, including write-ins for candidates who had run in the primary and failed to place first or second.
On October 3, a debate was held between between four Idaho gubernatorial candidates: the Republican incumbent Butch Otter; the Democratic nominee A. J. Balukoff; the Libertarian nominee John T. Bujak; and an independent candidate whose legal name is Pro-Life (he changed his name about a decade ago and has run for office several times since then under his new name). See this story.
It is not known why two other gubernatorial candidates who are on the ballot did not participate in the debate. They are Constitution Party nominee Steve Pankey, and independent candidate Jill Humble.
