Only Four U.S. House Elections in the Last Hundred Years Gave One Party a House Majority, Even Though the Other Major Party Polled More Votes for U.S. House

Some analysts have already looked at the U.S. House elections from last week’s election, and determined that Democratic candidates received more popular votes than Republican candidates. Yet, it appears most likely that Republicans won 235 seats and Democrats only won 200 seats. There are still six seats in which the results aren’t final, but Democrats are leading in five of them, so it has been assumed that those candidates who are currently leading will win.

Prior to 2012, there have been only three other congressional elections in the last hundred years in which one major party won more popular votes for U.S. House, yet the other major party won more seats. They were 1914, 1942, and 1952.

In 1914, Republicans won 5,871,614 popular votes to Democrats’ 5,793,581. But Democrats won 231 seats, Republicans won 193 seats, and minor parties won 11 seats.

In 1942, Republicans won 14,256,160 popular votes to Democrats’ 13,014,467. But Democrats won 222 seats, Republicans won 209 seats, and minor parties won 4 seats.

In 1952, Democrats won 28,693,013 popular votes to Republicans’ 28,413,596. But Republicans won 221 seats, Democrats won 213, and one independent won.

Data on the number of seats won is from the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, and from reference books written by Professor Ken Martis, and also the various authors of America Votes, including Rhodes Cook. Data on the number of popular votes received by each party is from my own research. In states with disaggregated fusion, the figures for major parties do not include the popular votes received on minor party lines in support of major party nominees.

Green Party Nominee for Craighead County Clerk, Arkansas, Ousts Incumbent Democrat

On November 6, Green Party nominee Kade Holliday, running for Craighead County Clerk (Arkansas) defeated his only opponent, the Democratic incumbent, Nancy Nelms. Nelms had been in office since 1999. See this story.

Holliday campaigned very hard, with radio ads, yard signs, and frequent appearances. The vote was: Holliday 18,471; Nelms 11,487.

The Green Party won three partisan elections in Arkansas this month. Besides the legislative race already mentioned, and the Craighead County Clerk, the party elected Alvin Clay Justice of the Peace, district 6, in Mississippi County. Both Holliday and Clay were nominated at the party’s convention on May 6, 2012. These victories may make it more likely that the Green Party can successfully persuade the state legislature to ease the vote test, so the party could remain ballot-qualified. If the law were changed to provide that a party is any group that polled at least 3% of the vote at either of the last two statewide elections, it would be on automatically for 2014. In 2010, the party polled 26.91% for Attorney General, 29.35% for Auditor, and 32.46% for Treasurer. In 2012, there were no statewide races on the ballot except for President.

Randall Terry Received More Votes for U.S. House than for President

Randall Terry, well-known activist against legal abortion, ran for president this year as an independent candidate, and he also ran as an independent candidate for U.S. House in Florida’s 20th district. In his presidential race, in the three states in which he was on the ballot (Kentucky, Nebraska, and West Virginia) unofficial tallies credit him with 12,491 votes, plus an unknown number of write-ins in certain other states. But in his U.S. House race, where he was the only opponent to Democratic incumbent Alcee Hastings, he received 29,481 votes.

Associates of Terry ran as independent candidates for U.S. House in two Kentucky districts. Andew Beacham, in the 2nd district, received 6,304 votes; David Lewis, in the 4th district, received 8,673.