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Rhodes Cook Letter Says Far More Congressional Incumbents Lose General Elections Than Primaries

Posted on March 12, 2014 by Richard WingerMarch 12, 2014

The Rhodes Cook Letter is a print publication that is published every two months. Every issue has analysis of U.S. elections. The editor is Rhodes Cook, who also authors America Votes, the books that appear every two years and contain accurate and complete election returns for president, congress, and gubernatorial elections. The books include both primaries and general elections.

The February 2014 Rhodes Cook Letter has a survey of congressional incumbents who have been defeated for re-election in the years 2000 through 2012. It finds 209 incumbents were defeated during those years. Of those 209, 167 were defeated in the general election and only 42 (20%) were defeated in a primary.

The Independent Voters Network (based in California) and Independent Voting (based in New York) both engage in activism against closed primaries. Both organizations frequently say that primary elections are far more important than general elections, and sometimes they even allege that 95% of all elections are decided in the primaries, not the general elections. However, neither organization, to date, has presented any statistical evidence for those claims.

California Ballot Access Bill Tentatively Set for Assembly Elections Hearing on May 6

Posted on March 12, 2014 by Richard WingerMarch 12, 2014

The California Assembly Elections Committee is expected to hear AB 2351 on May 6. This is the bill to ease the definition of “political party”, from a group with registration of 1% of the last gubernatorial vote (currently 103,004 members) to one-third of 1% of the state registration total (which would be approximately 60,000 members).

Utah Presidential Primary Timing Bill Advances

Posted on March 12, 2014 by Richard WingerMarch 12, 2014

On March 12, the Utah Senate Rules Committee passed HB 410. The bill has already passed the House. However, March 13 is the last day of the legislative session, so if it is going to pass the Senate, it will be on March 13.

Oklahoma Ballot Access Bill Shows Signs of Life

Posted on March 12, 2014 by Richard WingerMarch 12, 2014

Over a year ago, the Oklahoma House Rules Committee passed HB 2134, which lowered the number of signatures for a newly-qualifying party from 5% of the last vote cast, to exactly 5,000 signatures. The bill made no further headway.

Oklahoma has two-year legislative sessions, though, so the bill isn’t dead. On March 12, Representative Jon Echols (R-Oklahoma City) moved to amend the bill so that it would lower the number of signatures from 5% of the last vote cast, to 2.5% of the last vote cast. This suggests that the bill may move ahead soon. Echols is the Assistant Majority Whip in the House. As noted last month, the new Speaker of the House is the original sponsor of this bill. If the current law required 2.5% of the last vote cast, the 2014 requirement would be 33,372 valid signatures. But even if the bill passes this year, it is already too late for a new party to qualify in 2014. Thanks to E. Zachary Knight for this news.

Santa Clarita, California, Will Use Cumulative Voting for City Council Elections

Posted on March 12, 2014 by Richard WingerMarch 12, 2014

Santa Clarita, California, will use Cumulative Voting for city council elections starting in 2016. See this story. The city currently elects city council members at-large, but the city had been sued under the California Voting Rights Act because the current system does not seem to permit Hispanics to win seats on the council. Under the new system, there will be no districts, but each voter will have three votes, and will be free to give one vote to three candidates, or three votes to a single candidate, or two votes to one candidate and a single vote to another candidate.

Santa Clarita has a population of 180,000 and is the fourth most populous city in Los Angeles County. It is north of the San Fernando Valley. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.