On January 8, Gallup Polls released its poll on how U.S. voters self-identify. For the fourth quarter of 2013, the two major parties together are only at 51%, a record low for them. See the details here, which show, for the fourth quarter, independents at 46%, Democrats at 29%, Republicans at 22%, no response 3%.
This poll does not give respondents an opportunity to choose “something else”, but past polls that have given that option find the “something else” above 10%.
Roll Call has this Stuart Rothenberg article, which presents evidence that much TV advertising for candidates in the U.S. has no effect. In particular, ads run months before an election often has no effect at all. There is a period when voters are paying attention to congressional and state office campaigns, and it is close to the election, not a year before that election. Thanks to the Center for Competitive Politics for the link.
Virginia held a special State Senate election on November 7. The vast majority of votes have been counted. The results: Lewis, Democrat, 10,197; Coleman, Republican, 10,175, and 8 write-ins. See this story. The State Senate is tied, with the Democratic Lieutenant Governor breaking the tie. If Republicans could win this election, then they could organize the State Senate.
On January 7, the news was released that former New York city Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently gave $2,500,000 to a PAC that spends independently on behalf of Democratic nominees for the U.S. Senate. See this story. In a rational system, Bloomberg could have given the money directly to the Democratic Party, or its U.S. Senate nominees. Instead, this spending must be conducted independently of the Democratic Party and its various nominees.
On January 6, 2014, the North Carolina Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Dickson v Rucho, 201 PA 12-2. The issue is whether the state’s U.S. House districts, and its state legislative districts, are valid. The lower state court had upheld the districts. The plaintiffs have several arguments, but their most important one is that the Republican majority deliberately put as many African-American voters in certain districts as possible, even to the extent of splitting precinct boundaries. This technique “wastes” Democratic votes, so that the other districts are more likely to choose Republicans.
In November 2012, Republicans won 9 U.S. House seats and Democrats won 4 seats in North Carolina. But Democrats got 2,218,357 votes for U.S. House and Republicans got 2,137,167. Three Libertarians also ran for U.S. House and got 24,142 votes. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the news.
