Although the California press is filled with stories about California’s top-two election system, no newspaper story in California has discussed how the system has worked in Louisiana. This is peculiar, because Louisiana has had 30 years of experience with top-two in congressional elections, and 37 years of experience in state elections.

The most striking observation about Louisiana’s experience with top-two in congressional elections is how it seems to insulate incumbents from being defeated. In the 30 years before Louisiana used top-two for congressional elections, seven incumbents were defeated for re-election. For the period 1948 through 1976, here is the list:

1. In 1960, Harold B. McSween of the 8th district was defeated by Earl Long in the Democratic primary (however, Earl Long subsequently died, and the Democratic Party then chose McSween to fill the vacancy).
2. In 1962, Harold B. McSween of the 8th district was defeated by Gillis W. Long in the Democratic primary.
3. In 1964, Gillis W. Long of the 8th district was defeated by Speedy O. Long in the Democratic primary.
4. In 1966, James H. Morrison of the 6th district was defeated by John R. Rarick in the Democratic primary.
5. In 1968, Edwin E. Willis of the 3rd district was defeated by Patrick T. Caffery in the Democratic primary.
6. In 1974, John R. Rarick of the 6th district was defeated by Jeff LaCaze in the Democratic primary, and then Republican nominee W. Henson Moore won the general election.
7. In 1976, Otto Passman of the 5th district was defeated by Thomas Jerry Huckaby in the Democratic primary.

Then Louisiana switched to the top-two system for Congress, and used it for all elections 1978-2006. During all those 15 elections only once was an incumbent defeated for re-election. That was in 1980, when Claude “Buddy” Leach of the 4th district was defeated by Charles “Buddy” Roemer. This compilation does not include two districts in 1992, when two incumbents were forced to run against each other due to redistricting. Obviously, when that happens, it is impossible for an incumbent not to lose.

When Louisiana went back to a partisan nomination system for Congress starting in 2008, three incumbents were defeated:

1. In 2008, William Jefferson of the 2nd district was defeated in the general election by Republican nominee Joseph Cao.
2. In 2008, Don Cazayoux of the 6th district was defeated in the general election by Republican nominee William Cassidy.
3. In 2010, Joseph Cao of the 2nd district was defeated in the general election by Democratic nominee Cedric Richmond.

Washington state has used top-two in 2008 and 2010. No incumbent member of Congress from Washington lost in either of those elections. However, in the nation as a whole, many incumbents were defeated in those years: 28 in 2008, and 62 in 2010.

Even if Americans Elect has no nominees for any partisan office anywhere in the United States in 2012, it will still be a qualified party in 2014 in eleven states if it takes certain minimal steps to remain organized. Furthermore, if the organization will run candidates for office other than President in certain other states, it may remain ballot-qualified in additional states.

In these states, a group that successfully completes a party petition automatically is on the ballot for the next two general elections: Arizona, Maryland, and New Mexico. Americans Elect will therefore be on the ballot in those three states in 2014.

In Mississippi, a party that demonstrated that it has an organization continues to be ballot-qualified until the officers resign or otherwise cease to hold party office. In Florida, a party that continues to update its list of officers, and file certain financial reports, and to have at least $500 worth of financial activity, remains qualified. In South Carolina, a party remains qualified as long as it runs at least one candidate within a four year period. Therefore, Americans Elect can easily remain qualified for 2014 in those states if it wishes.

In California, under precedents set in 1948 and 1950 by the Independent Progressive Party, a party that uses the petition to become qualified in a presidential year remains qualified for the following midterm year, even if it doesn’t have registration of 1% of the last gubernatorial vote. However, it must have registration of at least one-fifteenth of 1% of the state total by January of the midterm year, in order to remain qualified for that midterm year. Americans Elect will need approximately 11,000 registered members by January 2014 to meet that test. It already has over 2,000 registered voters. California voter registration forms will list Americans Elect as a choice, starting in July 2012, so registration in Americans Elect is likely to rise to the needed 11,000 by January 2014.

In Kansas, qualified parties do not need to meet the vote test in presidential election years that happen to have no U.S. Senate race up. No U.S. Senate race is up in Kansas in 2012. In Wisconsin, parties that qualify in a presidential year are automatically on the ballot in the following midterm year. In South Dakota, parties that qualify in a presidential year are automatically on in the following midterm year. Therefore, Americans Elect will be on the ballot in 2014 in those three states.

In Vermont, a party that continues to be organized in at least ten towns remains on the ballot. Americans Elect already has this level of organization, although it would need to hold new meetings in each of those ten towns in late 2013 to keep that status in 2014.

Americans Elect can also be on the 2014 ballot in Idaho if it runs candidates for any three state or federal offices in 2012. Americans Elect could easily keep its status after 2012 if it would run three candidates for the state legislature this year. It still has time to nominate them, and could do so by convention. Americans Elect could keep its Michigan ballot status for 2014 if it ran a candidate for one of the seven non-presidential statewide partisan offices that are up this year, and Americans Elect still has time to nominate for Michigan offices. The vote test is very easy.
Other states with a fairly easy vote test (either 1% or 2%) in which Americans Elect still has time to nominate candidates for lesser statewide office include Missouri, Nebraska, Georgia, and Oregon.

On May 17, the Plaintiffs’ Reply brief was filed in the Califoria ballot access case. The case challenges the California January deadline for newly-qualifying parties. The hearing is Monday, May 21, at 1:30 p.m., in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles.

The hearing will determine whether the Justice Party and the Constitution Party (and any others) may continue to obtain new party registrations in their attempt to get on the ballot this year. Without any relief, they are far too late to get on the 2012 ballot. The case is California Justice Committee and Constitution Party of California v Bowen, 2:12cv-3956.

The state argues the two parties are far too small to qualify, even if they do get more time. But the Natural Law Party only had 634 registrants in February 1995, and it still managed to qualify in California by September 1995. The Reform Party also managed to qualify in September 1995, even though it had started its registration drive only three weeks before the deadline.

The U.S. District Court in Los Angeles is at 312 N. Spring Street, near Temple Street. The hearing is in Courtroom 15.