On October 6, Irregular Times posted a link to the Americans Elect draft proposal on how candidates may seek the group’s presidential nomination, and also opened a discussion of those rules. That thread of comments is worthwhile reading.
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The 2012 New Hampshire presidential primary date is still unknown. However, no matter what date is chosen, it is likely that the 2012 presidential primary season will be the first in the nation’s history to last more than five months. For this post, “presidential primary season” means the length of time between the first presidential primary and the last one; it does not include caucuses, or straw polls.
Presidential primaries will be 100 years old next year. In the years 1912 through 1972, no presidential primary was ever earlier than March. The presidential primary season ended, in those years, in either May or the first week in June. The season couldn’t last longer, because in the first half of the 20th century, presidential conventions were usually in June. In 1976 through 1996, the earliest presidential primary was in late February. The earliest primary in 2000 was in early February. Starting in 2004, the earliest primary has been in January. Still, before 2012, the presidential primary season has never exceeded five months.
2012 will be the longest season because (1) Utah is holding its presidential primary on June 26, the latest presidential primary in U.S. history; and (2) New Hampshire will almost certainly hold a primary that is earlier than any previous presidential primary in U.S. history.
On the whole, 2012 presidential primaries will be later than they were in any election since 1992. In 2012, half the presidential primaries will not be over until April 3, a later median date than any election since 1992, when the median date was April 7. The 2008 median primary date was February 12.
Micah Sifry has this article on CNN, explaining that only President Obama’s campaign has fully utilized modern technology for managing and assimilating data about tens of millions of individual voters and their preferences and demographic characteristics. Thanks to Thomas Jones for the link.
Indiana has one of the most severe laws for candidates to get on a presidential primary ballot. The law requires 500 signatures from each of the state’s nine U.S. House districts. In 2008, the only Democrats who appeared on the Indiana Democratic presidential primary ballot were Hillary Clinton (who won the state’s primary) and Barack Obama.
The October 8 issues of both the South Bend Tribune and the Howey Politics Weekly are reporting that it appears the Second District petitions for both Clinton and Obama contained many forgeries, so many that it is likely the statewide petitions would have failed if the problems had been brought to light at the time. Although each candidate probably still had the needed 4,500 signatures statewide, the distribution requirement would likely not have been met. Here is the South Bend Tribune story.
Four Republicans qualified for the Indiana presidential primary in 2008: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee.
Indiana elections officials do not actually check the names on presidential primary petitions. They merely look at the petitions to see if they appear proper on their face. Thanks to Ryan Nees for this story.
As noted earlier, on October 7, the Ohio legislature asked to intervene in Libertarian Party of Ohio v Husted, the ballot access case. Here is the state legislature’s brief, asking the U.S. District Court to let it intervene so that it may appeal the Libertarian Party’s September 7 victory. The legislature says it wants to intervene because the Secretary of State is not appealing.
Here is the Libertarian Party’s response, filed on October 8. The party argues that the U.S. District Court should not permit the legislature to intervene, mostly because the legislature waited an entire month after the party won injunctive relief. As the party’s brief notes, the Ohio Secretary of State had told the press on September 8 that he was not appealing. The party says it wouldn’t be fair to let the legislature intervene now, because the deadline for individual Libertarians to petition onto the Libertarian primary ballot is December 7, 2011. Anyone running in the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate, or for President, needs 1,000 signatures. Presidential primary candidates cannot begin to petition until they have chosen a slate of delegates.