Americans Elect Web Page Posts New National Ballot Access Petition Count

Sometime during the first week in October, the Americans Elect web page updated the number of signatures that have been obtained on the group’s ballot access petitions so far this year. The new national total is 1,829,264. That contrasts with 1,755,557, the figure that had been posted on August 30.

Because Americans Elect submitted 1,621,627 signatures in California, a simple subtraction shows that Americans Elect has collected 207,637 signatures outside of California so far.

By mid-October of 1995, the Reform Party had only begun ballot access petitioning or registration activity in California, so Americans Elect is ahead of the Reform Party, for this point in the cycle. However, the Reform Party had the advantage that it would soon be recognized in Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Virginia, without having to petition, based on already-qualified state parties in those four states that were about to affiliate with the national Reform Party.

2012 Presidential Primary Season Likely to Last a Record Length of Time

The 2012 New Hampshire presidential primary date is still unknown. However, no matter what date is chosen, it is likely that the 2012 presidential primary season will be the first in the nation’s history to last more than five months. For this post, “presidential primary season” means the length of time between the first presidential primary and the last one; it does not include caucuses, or straw polls.

Presidential primaries will be 100 years old next year. In the years 1912 through 1972, no presidential primary was ever earlier than March. The presidential primary season ended, in those years, in either May or the first week in June. The season couldn’t last longer, because in the first half of the 20th century, presidential conventions were usually in June. In 1976 through 1996, the earliest presidential primary was in late February. The earliest primary in 2000 was in early February. Starting in 2004, the earliest primary has been in January. Still, before 2012, the presidential primary season has never exceeded five months.

2012 will be the longest season because (1) Utah is holding its presidential primary on June 26, the latest presidential primary in U.S. history; and (2) New Hampshire will almost certainly hold a primary that is earlier than any previous presidential primary in U.S. history.

On the whole, 2012 presidential primaries will be later than they were in any election since 1992. In 2012, half the presidential primaries will not be over until April 3, a later median date than any election since 1992, when the median date was April 7. The 2008 median primary date was February 12.

2008 Indiana Presidential Primary Petitions for Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama Were Likely Invalid

Indiana has one of the most severe laws for candidates to get on a presidential primary ballot. The law requires 500 signatures from each of the state’s nine U.S. House districts. In 2008, the only Democrats who appeared on the Indiana Democratic presidential primary ballot were Hillary Clinton (who won the state’s primary) and Barack Obama.

The October 8 issues of both the South Bend Tribune and the Howey Politics Weekly are reporting that it appears the Second District petitions for both Clinton and Obama contained many forgeries, so many that it is likely the statewide petitions would have failed if the problems had been brought to light at the time. Although each candidate probably still had the needed 4,500 signatures statewide, the distribution requirement would likely not have been met. Here is the South Bend Tribune story.

Four Republicans qualified for the Indiana presidential primary in 2008: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee.

Indiana elections officials do not actually check the names on presidential primary petitions. They merely look at the petitions to see if they appear proper on their face. Thanks to Ryan Nees for this story.