Independent Political Report has this story, saying Gary Johnson’s campaign manager has said that the probability that Gary Johnson will seek the Libertarian Party presidential nomination is 99%.

The Libertarian Party was able to place its presidential nominee on the ballot in either 50 states, or 49 states, in 1980, 1992, 1996, and 2000. The Libertarian Party has a possibility of placing its presidential nominee on the ballot of all 50 states in 2012. Much will depend on whether the party’s national officers decide to spend money on the ongoing Oklahoma petition drive, which currently has 30,000 signatures. The law requires 51,739 valid signatures by March 2012.

A newspaper story recently reported that Americans Elect will have spent $10,000,000 on ballot access, by the time petitioning for the 2012 election is over. 50-state ballot access for a party (other than the Democratic and Republican Parties) is a precious asset. Yet some members of the Libertarian Party National Committee are reluctant to spend relatively small amounts of money on ballot access during the odd years before presidential election years, even though petitioning in the odd years before election years is less expensive.

At the November 8, 2011 in Derby, Connecticut, one of the Democratic Party nominees for a seat on the Board of Apportionment and Taxation was James R. Butler. However, whoever prepared the ballots erroneously listed him as James J. Butler. It happens that the town does have a resident by that name, and he is the son of James R. Butler. According to this news story, the Connecticut Secretary of State has ruled that James J. Butler has therefore been elected, even though he apparently doesn’t want the job.

The Connecticut Secretary of State’s ruling seems faulty. There may be other relevant facts that the news story doesn’t mention. One wonders what the Secretary of State would have said if no one by the name of James J. Butler lives in Derby, or if there were several people in the town with that name. Thanks to Randall Hayes for the link.

Howard Megdal has this article in Salon, suggesting that the Republican presidential primaries and caucuses might elect a delegate field in which no one candidate has a majority of the delegates. He also suggests that in that case, it is possible that the convention might choose someone for President who did not even run in the presidential primaries. The last major party nominee who had not run in any primaries or caucuses was Hubert Humphrey, the Democratic nominee in 1968. Thanks to both Political Wire and Rick Hasen for the link.

The major party conventions throughtout most of the nation’s history were much earlier, so it was somewhat more practical for the national conventions themselves to make the decision as to whom to nominate. For most of the 20th century, major party presidential conventions were in June. The upcoming Republican convention won’t convene until August 27, 2012.