CALIFORNIA TOP-TWO SYSTEM DRAWS CRITICISM FROM SUPPORTERS AND OPPONENTS ALIKE
California has used a top-two system starting in 2011, but never before has it faced such critical commentary. This is because of the persistent possibility that it might create a November ballot that lists only two Republicans, with no write-in space.
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic statistician, has a website that estimates the probability that two Republicans will place first and second on June 2. On February 26, it estimated the probability of that happening at 20.0%. See twins-production-9381.up.railway.app. It followed a PPIC Poll released earlier that day showing Republican Steve Hilton 14%; Democrat Katie Porter 13%; Republican Chad Bianco 12%; Democrat Eric Swalwell 11%; Democrat Tom Steyer 10%. No one else had more than 5%. Undecided was 10%.
Every commentator believes that a November ballot with only two Republicans would be an unjust ballot. Democrats consistently poll 60% in statewide partisan general elections in California, if there is one Democrat and one Republican running. Even some of the leaders who supported the top-two system have said so recently.
Former State Senator Steve Peace wrote recently, “It’s time for more choice in California. Nonpartisan top-four (or five) primaries that allow voters more candidates in the general election are the next great nonpartisan reform.” Peace was one of the top-two system’s boosters when it was on the ballot in 2010.
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