On May 28, two politics blogs happened to each make the same point about California’s Proposition 14, the top-two measure on the June 8 ballot. The authors of the two blogs wrote independently of each other, but both made the same point about the expected peculiar consequences of a top-two system. See this blog post from Confound Me, and this one from the Huffington Post, by Gautam Dutta.
California has not elected a Republican Attorney General since 1994. One can make a reasonable statement that, nowadays, Californians prefer a Democrat as Attorney General. But if Proposition 14 were in force this year, it would probably result in the election of a Republican Attorney General. Six Democrats have strong campaigns for Attorney General this year, and the few polls that have been conducted in this race show they all are approximately equal in voter support. But only two Republicans running for Attorney General this year have strong campaigns. Under Proposition 14, chances are that each of the Democrats running in the single primary would each get between 6% and 10% of the total primary vote. The two Republicans with strong campaigns would probably each get between 15% and 20% of the total vote. So, California would wind up with a general election race between two Republicans, even though perhaps 55% of the voters prefer a Democratic Attorney General.
Another original piece about Proposition 14 is this from TrueSlant, authored by Jerry Lanson.