The June 2009 issue of the Journal of Marketing Research has an article, “Could Ralph Nader’s Entrance and Exit Have Helped Al Gore?”. The three authors are University of Iowa Professor William Hedgcock, Professor Akshay Rao of the University of Minnesota, and Professor Haipeng Chen of Texas A&M University. On September 29, the University of Iowa News Service sent out this press release, publicizing the article.
The article is in Volume 46, pages 330-343, of the Journal of Marketing Research. It depends on experimental research conducted by the authors. The thesis is that when undecided people make a decision about something, whether it’s a political candidate or a brand of soda, and identify with that decision, that when their original choice becomes unavailable, they select an alternative option with the most similar attributes. UPDATE: here is a link to a preliminary draft of the article.