Texas Poll Finds Evidence of “Raiding”

This Texas story says that an IVR poll has found that 17% of the voters who say they plan to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary on March 4, also say they expect to vote for the Republican presidential nominee in November. The same poll finds 22% of the voters who say they will vote for Barack Obama on March 4 expect to vote for the Republican nominee in November.

This is evidence that “raiding” does occur. “Raiding” is the intrusion of voters into party primaries who are not, in their hearts, loyal to the party holding that primary. For years, political scientists have fought over whether “raiding” really occurs in open primaries.

The February 25 New York Times has this op-ed by Geraldine Ferraro, supporting the idea that superdelegates ought to settle the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee. Ferraro’s justification is that Democratic presidential primaries get raided anyway, and therefore the presidential primaries should not be the determining factor in whom the party nominates.

9th Circuit Oral Argument in Nader Arizona Ballot Access Case Set for April 15

The 9th circuit will hear Nader v Brewer on April 15. This is an Arizona ballot access case. The issues are whether states may ban out-of-state residents from collecting signatures for an independent candidate, and whether states can set the independent presidential petition deadline in early June.

Arizona has the state’s 2nd earliest independent presidential petition deadline. Only the Texas deadline is earlier. The Arizona deadline is so early, it is three months before the state’s primary, and also three months before the date of the Republican National Convention this year.

Missouri Ballot Access Bill Hearing

The Missouri Senate Financial, Government Operations & Elections Committee will hold a hearing February 25 (Monday) at 2 pm, on SB 797. This is the bill that fixes the technical glitch in the state’s petition for new parties. The existing law was written in 1993. It said that a party could circulate a petition to qualify itself, before it has chosen its nominees. Unfortunately, due to a typographical error, the 1993 bill contradicted its own purpose by also saying that the petition must list the party’s presidential candidate and presidential elector candidates. SB 797 fixes that typo.

Massachusetts Green Presidential Primary Results Likely in One Week

No one apparently knows the results of the Massachusetts Green Party presidential primary held on February 5. The Secretary of State’s office won’t release unofficial results. It hopes to have the official results by March 3 if everything goes well. The Massachusetts primary results will be interesting, since Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney were both on the ballot.

The only other Green presidential primary in which both candidates were on the ballot was California, where the latest figures (still not official) are Nader 19,771; McKinney 8,692.

Anyone in Massachusetts is free to contact each town and gather the results now, and perhaps someone has done that.

Nader's Campaign Manager Leaves Door Open for Nader to Seek Green Nomination

Sally Soriano, Ralph Nader’s 2008 Campaign Manager, has posted this statement on www.votenader.org: “Ralph told the media today after ‘Meet the Press’ that he will decide within the coming days how he is going to run for President in terms of ballot access. On ‘Meet the Press’ he mentioned the Green Party positively multiple times thus helping put the Green Party out to “Meet the Press’s” five million plus viewers. Ralph also said that he will announce his Vice-Presidential selection sometime in the next week. If people with the Green philosophy want him to seek their nomination, they could show their support by going to and by donating and signing up on the email list. No matter what he decides he will be communicating the Green Party agenda over the coming months.” Thanks to Dean Myerson for this news. The Nader campaign webpage is here.