In most states, minor parties running for statewide office in 2006 need to poll a certain share of the vote in order to qualify automatically in 2008. Often it is easy to predict if a party will poll enough votes to remain on the ballot. This year, there are seven states that are tough to predict, and it is especially tough to predict how the Green Party will do.
Arkansas: will the Green Party poll 3% for Governor? The Governor’s race is a 4-way race between a Democrat, Republican, Green and independent. Polls have not generally included all 4 candidates.
Illinois: will the Green Party poll 5% for Governor? Polls have shown that it will, although the most recent poll showed the Green down to 7%.
Maryland: will the Green Party poll 1% for Governor? Maryland gubernatorial polls have not included all 4 candidates (nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Green and Populist Parties). Although the Maryland Green Party’s candidate for U.S. Senate has campaigned harder, only the gubernatorial race counts for ongoing status.
Minnesota: will the Green Party poll 5% for any statewide race? Greens are entered in four statewide races (US Senate, Governor-Lt. Gov, Auditor, Attorney General). Since the Independence Party also has nominees in each of those races, Greens face an uphill battle to recapture qualified status. In 2002, Greens contested 4 of the statewide offices but their best showing was 3.67%.
Nebraska: Greens have two statewide nominees, Secretary of State and Auditor, but both races have both a Democrat and a Republican running as well, so it’s tough to predict whether either Green will get the needed 5%. By contrast, the Constitution Party has a nominee in the 2-candidate Treasurer’s race, so the Constitution Party is sure to remain qualified.
New Mexico: will the Green nominee for Public Regulation Commission poll a vote total that is equal to 5% of the entire vote cast for Governor in the state? The Green is in a two-person race and has been campaigning hard; but since the state is divided into five Public Regulation districts, and since many voters will skip voting in this race, the Green probably needs 30% to 35% of the total vote cast, to meet the statewide 5% standard. Also the law isn’t clear on whether this race counts; a federal court a few months ago said it does, but a lower state court in 2004 said it doesn’t.
New York: will the Green Party poll 50,000 votes for Governor to regain its qualified status (which was also won in 1998 but lost in 2002)?
If the Green Party is lucky in all seven states, it will be ballot-qualified for president in 2008 (as of November 8, 2006) in 25 states, the same number it had immediately after the November 2000 election.
The Libertarian Party, as of November 8, 2006, is likely to be ballot-qualified for president in 2008 in 24 states, with an outside chance for two more, if it can get 5% for U.S. Senate in Washington, and 50,000 for New York Governor.
The Constitution Party, as of November 8, 2006, is likely to be ballot-qualified for president in 2008 in ten states, and the Working Families Party in five states.
What about the Reform Party or Constitution party?
I suspect Malachy McCourt in New York is a pretty safe bet to get the necessary 50,000 votes (generally around 1 percent). One poll showed him at 5 percent.
But beside that, the Independence Party is, for the first time, not running its own candidate; New York is one of the weakest states for the Libertarians; the Socialist Workers Party doesn’t generally get many votes either; and “Rent Is Too Damn High” is a cute slogan, but this campaign is not really visible. Oh, and the Marijuana Reform Party is not back for a third try.
So I see McCourt getting the bulk of the “protest vote” as well as the ideological Green vote. Both of those are often driven down in close races, but this isn’t one. And high turnout in the many closely matched Congressional districts will help by cutting down the necessary percentage.
Does the Constitution Party total of 10 ballot-qualified states include or exclude states with CP affilliate groups like the US Taxpayers Party or American Independent Party?
“It includes them. It does not include the Alaskan
Independence Party, though, even though that party
nominated the Constitution Party presidential nominee in 2004.”
-this is the text of a response I got just now from this site’s helpful moderator.
Interesting that the Alaskan Independence Party had 3 candidates for its gubernatorial nomination this year. The AIP, of course, shares a blanket primary ballot with the Democrats, Libertarians, and Greens, and this blanket primary is open to all voters.
The AIP elected Walter Hickel, an ex-Republican governor and Nixon’s first interior secretary, governor in 1990, but Hickel switched back to the GOP near the end of his 4-year term.
Don’t forget Missouri. The Green Party affiliate is running as the Progressive Party, but it will host the Green Party presidential ticket in 2008 if it wins ballot status this year. It needs a 2% showing in either the U.S. Senate race or the contest for State Auditor. Senate candidate Lydia Lewis is running an excellent campaign, but the perceived tightness of the Talent-McCaskill contest will erode her total. The lower profile contest for State Auditor, though, is promising, as the party is running an appealing candidate, wheelchair-bound accountant Terry Bunker, in a contest rife with mudslinging between the Democrat and Republican. That’s the kind of contest in which third party candidates do well.
The Reform Party will continue to be ballot-qualified in Florida, Kansas and Mississippi. There is no suspence.
The Constitution Party will be ballot-qualified (for president in 2008) in California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina. If it gets a few more registrations in Delaware, it will be qualified there, and if it gets 2% for US Senate in Utah, it will be qualified there. A poll today indicated the Constitution Party is at 2% in the US Senate race (which is Utah’s only statewide race this year).
In Maryland, there have been a few polls with the thrid party candidates included. Our gubenatorial candidate, Ed Boyd, has consistently pulled about 2%.
But if he passes the 1% threshold, it only gives us 2 more years of ballot status. We are working on gathering petitions that would give us 4 more years. We need 10,000 valid signatures; we’ve got around 13,000 now and are trying to get another 1,000 to have a safe enough cushion. We have until the end of the year to submit them.
The Independent Greens of Virginia have Gail Parker on the ballot for U.S. Senate. Gail Parker, a U.S. Air Force officer (retired) must receive 10% of the vote for the Independent Greens to receive ballot status.
Sunday’s Lynchburg News and Advance Front Page showed Gail Parker at 9%.