This Suffolk University (Massachusetts) Poll of the New Hampshire primary shows John McCain leading in that primary. Should McCain become the Republican nominee, it is unlikely that Michael Bloomberg would choose to run as an independent candidate. Thanks to Political Wire for the news about the poll.
This might explain why Bloomberg seemed so sure he wasn’t running when asked on television last night. McCain is starting to look like the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nod. And it wouldn’t shock me if Bloomberg was appointed Treasury Secretary or to some similar post in a McCain administration. In exchange for not running, of course.
It does not seem to me that Senator McCain is the “odds-on” front runner at this point in time. There are currently five, fairly equally strong, factions of the Republican Party: (1) the Eastern Establishment, led by Mitt Romney; (2) the Old Guard Conservatives, led by John McCain; (3) the Evangelical Conservatives, led by Mike Huckabee; (4) the Neo-Conservatives, led by Rudy Giuliani; and (5) the Libertarians, led by Ron Paul. There was also a significant sixth faction also: the Neo-Reformers, led by Chuck Hagel. That group, evidently, is the only faction to have seen the writing on the wall and bailed out before the coming disaster.
As I have been writing for a couple of years now or so, the GOP will be a minor-sized political party by the year 2012. Thank God!
McLame is the “odds-on favorite”? You’ve gotta be kidding! The GOP won’t nominate that jerk. (See McCain-Feingold and Kennedy-McCain, not to mention all of his brown-nosing of the left-wing media.)
I don’t see much that’s “conservative” about McLame or Julie Annie. And Hagel’s “faction” is mainly in his own mind. The writing on the wall that he saw was that the GOP wouldn’t nominate him for national dog-catcher.
I’ve been watching these presidential races since ’64, and this one is the toughest to handicap. If I had to guess today, I’d say Romney will be the nominee, with Huckabee having an outside shot. I’m amazed that Fred Thompson has run such a bad campaign.
Phil, which party do you see replacing the GOP as No. 2? The GOP’s rank-and-file definitely looks to be aging.
I don’t think McCain will win the GOP nomination, even if he does well in New Hampshire.
John McCain will get the nomination. Huckabee has a decent chance as the evangelical pretty boy (See Bush) though. Republicans nationally will not flock to everyday pretty boy Romney (read: Mormon). Thompson’s campaign has been the worst. Except for the fact that he has done so little it may help him for a while…i.e. keep your mouth shut and don’t let ’em know how bad you really are
Brad wrote: “John McCain will get the nomination.”
Would you like to make a little wager?
For the record: I won $20 in 1980 when Reagan beat Carter, and I’ll soon be eating a free steak dinner, after Julie Annie fails to get the nomination.
MCCAIN ROMNEY AND RUDY THE 3 STOOGES. GO WITH HUCK OR FRED.IF ONE OF THE STOOGES IS NOMINATED LOOK FOR A THIRD PARTY OF RIGHT WING REPUBLICANS.
Hmmm, I’m interested. How about who you think will win vs McCain. Straight up. But my confidence level is only $10. Way too many things can happen. Someone in the fine classy field of Republican candidates might start talking about McCain’s “dark” babies again. Then its game over. If we both lose then we have to promise to vote for a third party candidate.
LOL @ “Julie Annie”.
OK BRAD
“John McCain will get the nomination” sounds very confident to me.
Again, I believe it’ll be Romney, with Huckabee having an outside shot at the nomination.
The likelihood is great that I’ll back a third party or independent candidate, as I’ve been voting for third parties since ’88, when I voted for Ron Paul. Paul and Fred Thompson are the only ones in the current field that I could support, and, barring a miracle, neither of them will be the GOP nominee.
McCain’s “dark babies” had little to do with his losing. Rather, he had the same problem in 2000 that he has today: being out of step with rank-and-file Republicans.
will: I don’t see how you can link Huckabee with Thompson, since Huckabee is a big-government guy masquerading as a Republican. (He plays the guitar… Slick Willie plays the sax.)
So much for John McCain. He just got clobbered in Iowa.
Not sure if we can say McCain got “clobbered”. He didn’t do as much campaigning as other candidates and did so with less money. And if he did get clobbered, let’s keep things in perspective. Iowa has, what, maybe half a percent of all the delegates. This race is far from over. The media is falling over themselves as usual to annoint a nominee ASAP. This time it’s like calling a marathon winner in the first mile.
Steve Rankin wrote:
I’ve been watching these presidential races since ‘64, and this one is the toughest to handicap. If I had to guess today, I’d say Romney will be the nominee, with Huckabee having an outside shot. I’m amazed that Fred Thompson has run such a bad campaign.
Phil Sawyer responds:
So have I. Starting out in political life as a Republican (before going through many subsequent changes), I fervently supported William Warren Scranton for president in 1964. Even if I had been old enough to vote, though, Governor Scranton was not on the ballot in California for the GOP primary election (I would have voted for Governor Nelson Rockefeller if I could have). For the November general election, I completely supported Senator Barry Goldwater (though still not old enough to vote). I am not making any prediction about who will end up with the GOP nod, this time, other than that there will be plenty more surprises in store for us and that the party may not stay in one piece no matter who comes out on top (thanks to the Bush/Cheney administration and all the rest of the neo-conservatives).
Steve Rankin wrote:
Phil, which party do you see replacing the GOP as No. 2? The GOP’s rank-and-file definitely looks to be aging.
Phil Sawyer answers:
What I think will happen is that five groups will be in a great struggle to replace the Republican Party in second place and that it will be much more clear by 2012 which one will come out on top by 2016: Constitution Party; Green Party; Libertarian Party, a group that includes part or all of the Reform/Independence/Unity08 forces; and a group that includes part or all of the Peace and Freedom Party/Vermont Liberty Union Party/ Socialist Party USA forces.
Not only will there be a fierce battle for the second place partisan slot but all of this will be based on an even more fierce ideological struggle that will be a reflection of the warfare between monopoly capitalism/imperialism at its epitome (led by the bourgeoisie)and economic, environmental, and political democracy (led by the proletariat).
Go McCain!!! So he got “clobbered” in Iowa, huh NE? You obviously don’t have a clue. McCain spent virtually no time or money in Iowa. He will win New Hampshire because, unlike in Iowa, the Bible-thumpers don’t totally dominate the Republican party there. Romney’s candidacy will be doomed if he loses in New Hampshire (which he will) and Fred Thompson will be dropping out soon and will likely endorse McCain. That leaves Giuliani, McCain and Huckabee. Of the three, I think McCain will emerge as the compromise choice. The hard right wing of the Republican party can’t stomach Rudy and the moderate wing of the party can’t stomach Huckabee. Also, McCain consistently polls as the Republicans’ best candidate to put up against either Hillary or Obama in the Fall.
Actually, Dan, the hard right loves Rudy Giuliani. He is the candidate of the neo-conservatives and they do not care about such issues as supporting the Constitution of the United States and protecting all humans (from the womb to the nursing homes). What they want is for this country to continue to carry monopoly capitalism and imperialism to the far corners of the world. The Bush-Cheney administration has made the Republican Party anathema to the majority of voting citizens in this nation.
If Mr. Giuliani somehow manages to obtain the GOP nod (which looks very unlikely now), the Republican Party will most likely break into pieces.