Twentynine states and the District of Columbia have registration by party. Ballot Access News has been tabulating registration data from these states, by party, ever since 1992.
Current registration data from these 30 jurisdictions shows that only 31.89% of registrants are now registered Republicans. Prior Republican percentages (at the general election) for the nation have been:
2006 32.39%
2004 32.32%
2002 32.55%
2000 32.78%
1998 33.26%
1996 33.78%
1994 33.55%
1992 32.97%
i see a bad moon rising
I think it’s more just voters see no reason to be a member of the party and prefer to just be independents.
i wouldn’t worry. i’d say it is a concerted effort by illegal immigrants to move to these registration states to increase the population and artifically reduce the percentage of registered republicans.
hmmm…i wonder if the republcation party checks legal citizen status before allowing someone to join their party.
Actually it is just more proof of what I have been saying and writing for a few years now: The Republican Party will be a minor-sized political party by the year 2012. The GOP can thank the Bush-Cheney Administration for helping to facilitate its slow but steady demise.
phil you are correct. bush placed another nail in the gop coffin.
It should prove interesting to see if the Democratic
Party registration has moved in parellel with the
Republicans over the past 15 years. Additionally, what
about the alternate parties combined percentage growth
during this time frame?
Thanks, Will. The writing has been on the wall, as the old Biblical saying goes. It does not take a crystal ball to see what is going to happen.
In many of the 29 states with party registration, at least one party invites independents to vote in its primaries. Thus, voters have less incentive to register with a party.
What should be more troubling to the Republicans is the turnout in this year’s presidential primaries/caucuses. Some 14 million voters have participated in the Democratic events, while some eight million have voted in the GOP events.
The demise of the GOP is possible, but, in my view, it’s not a foregone conclusion. The Democrats had the White House from 1933 to 1953, and the Republicans didn’t cease to exist. And following the 1964 Goldwater debacle, there were lots of predictions that the GOP would go the way of the Whigs.
The RePugs are War Mongers !!!
And Americans are becoming more and MORE anti-war.
http://www.antiwar.com
No, Steve, it is not a foregone conclusion – you are correct about that. Nevertheless, it is going to happen, I believe. I certainly hope that “Americans are becoming more and MORE anti-war,” as j.c wrote.
It will be fascinating to see if the GOP survives the primary season and the convention in one piece. In addition, the Democrats will most likely win handily in November – unless they really blow it (such as doing something like nominating Senator Hilary Clinton for president).
Phil: The Republicans will be better off, I believe, if Insane McCain loses in November. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on the demise of the GOP.
Which party do you predict will replace the GOP as the other major party? Or do you think we’ll have a one-party Socialist Era of Good Feelings?
No predictions yet, Steve, on that one. The most likely party to become the new major party sometime between 2012 and 2016 is the Green Party of the United States.
I don’t think we’ll have a situation in which two left-wing parties– the Democrats and the Greens– will be the major parties. If the Republicans were to fade, I would think the Libertarians would have a better shot at becoming the No. 2 party.
But unless the GOP screws up royally, I believe they’ll continue as one of the two major parties.
Is the Democratic Party really a left-wing party? It certainly is a party of the bourgeois establishment. The Green Party is more left-wing but it still is not a socialist or communist party.
The Libertarian Party has never amounted to very much and will not do so in the future unless it adapts and changes with the times.
If Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez start a brand new political party, I think that the new party will eclipse (or swallow) the various Green Parties.