The New York Assembly Election Law Committee will meet late on the afternoon of June 17, and is likely to pass A1580, the National Popular Vote bill. Thanks to Bill Mahoney for this news.
The New York Assembly Election Law Committee will meet late on the afternoon of June 17, and is likely to pass A1580, the National Popular Vote bill. Thanks to Bill Mahoney for this news.
A survey of 800 New York voters conducted on December 22-23, 2008 showed 79% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
By gender, support was 89% among women and 69% among men.
By age, support was 60% among 18-29 year olds, 74% among 30-45 year olds, 85% among 46-65 year olds, and 82% for those older than 65.
By race, support was 78% among whites (representing 67% of respondents, 78% among African Americans (representing 18% of respondents), 86% among Hispanics (representing 12% of respondents), and 70% among Others (representing 4% of respondents).
Support was 86% among Democrats, 66% among Republicans, 78% among Independence Party members (representing 8% of respondents), 50% among Conservative Party members (representing 3% of respondents), 100% among Working Families Party members (representing 2% of respondents), and 7% among Others (representing 7% of respondents).
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Richard, Can you tell us where this issue stands on a national basis? Such as, how many states have already done this?
And what are the implications if it surpasses the required number of states?
I’m sure that you have an enlightened opinion and we would like to know what it is.
Thanks. carter
It has passed in Washington, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois and Hawaii. It won’t go into effect until lots more states pass it. The movement behind the National Popular Vote Plan has done everything it can to explain that this is not a partisan issue. However, it seems Republican legislators have an almost knee-jerk tendency to vote against it, and Democratic legislators are mostly inclined to vote for it. Emotions over the 2000 election are powerful. If Republicans make substantial gains in state legislative elections and gubernatorial seats in 2010, the movement is probably stalled for a long time to come. 2009 should have been the year for National Popular Vote bills to pass in lots of states, but it only got two states this year so far. It could still pass this year in several states, though.
For those of you who don’t follow the circus, the NY State Senate is deadlocked at 31-31 due to a defection of 2 Democrats, followed by one of them defecting back. There is no Lt Gov to break the tie, since he (David Patterson) became Governor when Spitzer resigned. It is quite likely the Senate will not even meet, let alone pass anything this session. So it really doesn’t matter what the Assembly does.
#1 How did that telephone push poll determine that it was voters and not fax machines that were answering the random phone calls?
#5 – As George Will likes to say, you’re entitled to your own opinion opinion, but not your own facts.
The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling. The five questions asked were:
1) How do you think we should elect the
President: should it be the candidate who gets
the most votes in all 50 states, or the current
electoral college system? If you think it should
be the candidate who gets the most votes in all
50 states, press 1. If you think it should be the
current electoral college system, press 2.
2) If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
3) If you identify with the Democratic Party, press
1. If the Republican Party, press 2. If the
Working Families Party, press 3. If the
Independence Party, press 4. If the
Conservative Party, press 5. If other, press 6.
4) If you are white, press 1. If you are African
American, press 2. If you are Hispanic, press
3. If other, press 4.
5) If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older than 65, press 4.
——————————
There is nothing resembling “push polling” in those questions.
Nothing.
And fax machines don’t answer multiple part questions.
Make your best case against the NPV. But if you need to lie to do so, maybe you don’t have legitimate a case at to make…?
#2 –
To expand on Richard’s response, states representing a total of 61 electoral college votes have signed on to the NPV compact. In order for the compact to become effective, states representing a majority of EC votes (270) need to sign on. It is therefore theoretically possible that the compact could become effective if only the following eleven states were to sign on:
CA, NY, PA, OH, NC, MI, MN, WI, MA, VA, IA.
I believe my math is correct.
At that point the NPV compact would be subject to Congressional approval, although there is a line of thought that several Supreme Court cases, notably Virginia v. Tennessee, 148 U.S. 503 (1893), establish a precedent Congress’s consent is required only if a compact “directed to the formation of any combination tending to the increase of political power in the States, which may encroach upon or interfere with the just supremacy of the United States.â€
Richard is correct, as well, that support for or opposition against the NPV has generally broken down along party lines (although several of the people who started the NPV inititative are Republicans). In three states where the NPV was passed but vetoed by the governor, each had Democratic legislatures and Republican governors (CA, VT and HI, although Hawaii overrode the veto the following year).
I agree with Richard in his assertion that emotions about the 2000 election certainly are powerful, but I think it is also a fact that Republicans “like” the current system because of the presumed EC advantage they have owing to the fact that many small states are currently predictably red. However, I also think they might have reconsidered had Bush not won Ohio in 2004 and lost to Kerry despite having a 3 million plus advantage in popular votes.
That said, there are several small states which are currently predictably “blue” – VT, RI, DE, HI, and a few more. Republican voters in those states are as effectively and practically disenfranchised as are Democrats in predictably “red” states like ID, MT, ND, KS, OK, and more.
Republicans might also consider that the electoral pendulum tends to swing both ways over the decades. It wasn’t too long ago that the Dems had the deep south locked up, making the electoral calculus for Republican presidential candidates very difficult indeed for several decades. With VA and NC possibly back to being “blue,” is there a trend that will make election by popular vote as palatable in the future to Republicans as it is to Dems now? We’ll see.
Cheers…
#6 Wasn’t PPP just the vendor for the poll? I can’t find anything about this particular poll on the PPP web site, even though they do have information about polling on other political issues. Who funded the poll? Who wrote the key question? Were other questions tested?
How could they determine whether the phone respondent was a voter, a citizen, or even a resident of New York?
Here is the question: How do you think we should elect the President: should it be the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states, or the current electoral college system? If you think it should be the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states, press 1. If you think it should be the current electoral college system, press 2.
What if someone who answered the phone has heard about faithless electors, or heard that Nebraska split its electoral votes, and they simply thought the question was about the same system should be used in all 50 States, rather than the current system.
The NPV plan proposes keeping the current electoral college system, does it not? What was that phrase Susan used to use: “exclusive and plenary”?
Use of the introduction “we should elect” could be biasing the response by directly associating the respondent with the election process.
Why didn’t they ask:
“Every President from George Washington to Barack Obama have been elected by the electoral college system provided for by the US Constitution. Should we abandon that system for something else?”
Why didn’t they ask “voters” how they thought presidential candidates should be nominated? Or whether they thought the same candidates should be on the ballot in every State. Or whether the President should receive a majority of popular votes to be elected? Or whether voter qualifications should be the same in every State or the election conducted under the same procedures? Or whether there should be an effective recount procedure for dealing with a close election like that of 1880?
#8 –
As I suspected. You have no basis whatsoever for claiming the poll was a “push” poll. And, humorously and ironically you suggest the following question instead:
“Every President from George Washington to Barack Obama have been elected by the electoral college system provided for by the US Constitution. Should we abandon that system for something else?â€
That’s pretty much a model push poll question.
As for the rest of your proposed questions, why stop with them? Why not expand the poll to ask voters about their preferences in cuisines, what model cars they drive, whether they’ve ever French-kissed?
You may wish to conflate the issue of how Electoral College votes are allocated with other legitimate questions about ballot access, voter qualification and registration, registration, etc., but that does not mean that the attempt to reform one aspect of the process of electing a president is therefore an invalid endeavor.
#9 You’re dodging the initial question. How do you, mvymvy, or PPP know that it was a “voter” who picked up the phone and pushed the buttons?
Answer that, and then perhaps we could continue the discussion about what’s for dinner, voter motor, Belgian waffles, or Dutch uncles.