Political scientists Eric McGhee and Boris Shor have published “Has the Top Two Primary Elected More Moderates?” Anyone may read the 36-page paper at this link. The authors studied California and Washington, which are the only two states that use top-two (as they explain on page 6 and 16, Louisiana and Nebraska don’t have top-two systems).
They conclude that since top-two started in each state, California Democrats in the legislature have become more moderate, but California and Washington Republicans and Democrats in Congress have not; nor have Republicans in the legislatures of either state moderated. The paper suggests that a strong reason why California Democrats in the legislature have moderated is because of three other changes made almost simultaneously: (1) redistricting reform; (2) term limits were eased; (3) the California budget no longer takes a two-thirds majority in each house of the legislature. But the paper believes that top two has probably had some moderating effect on California legislative Democrats.
Page 27 says, “The results of these analyses suggest virtually no effect of the Top Two in Washington or for Republicans in California.” That page also says that because members of congress are not subject to term limits, whereas members of the California legislature are subject to term limits, therefore term limits is probably the main reason why the results are different for California Democratic legislators, versus California Democratic members of the U.S. House. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.
PRESS RELEASE
6/24/2017
http://www.international-parliament.org
PACIFIC GROVE, CALIFORNIA
Global Write-in Campaign Seminar on Tuesday, July 4th, 2017
A global voter write-in effort is underway in Pacific Grove California, for all people of the whole earth, by the First International Parliament.
Under the new unity phenomena sweeping the earth known as pure proportional representation (PR), local artist James Orlando Ogle (AKA “joogle”) is teaching people about how all write-in names work together to have a better chance of winning a seat in the “First International Parliament Election of 2017”.
On July 4th 2017, during a live audio/video International Parliament Senate Chamber Conference call, James Ogle will be leading a group of write-in candidates from all over the world, so that all new and current write-in candidates can come forward and work together with current and prospective volunteers.
The “First International Parliament Election of 2017” ends on August 5th, one month later after July 4th, and the votes elect the “First International Parliament”, a virtual elected entity using pure proportional representation as one at-large global district.
The general public is invited to the International Parliament’s home office in Pacific Grove, California, by RSVP only, while others are participating simultaneously by audio/video conferencing,
James Ogle, a candidate for mayor of Pacific Grove in 1994, campaigned as a write-in for USA President in usenet in 1996.
One year later in 1997, the founder of google.com Sergey Brin, discovered Ogle’s Pacific Grove-based activities, copied Ogle’s logo “joogle”, copied his programs and artistic flair and persona, but has also invested time and money covering up the fact that Ogle is the reason for the search engine’s name.
How Google Got Its Name: http://usparliament.org/how-google-got-its-name.php
RSVP James Ogle (831) 392-8087 or sign up at http://www.usparliament.org/signup.php
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They made an error with regard to Louisiana, particularly since they were focused on the legislature. The Open Primary in Louisiana is in October. The runoff is in mid-to-late November. The study could have also explored whether there were factors within the implementation of the Louisiana and Nebraska systems that contributed to less polarization. In Louisiana these would include odd-year elections, the small gap between the primary and the runoff, four year terms, and the possibility of election in the open primary. In Nebraska, it would be the lack of party labels and the unicameral legislature.
They probably overstate the effect of the change in term limits since NO legislators have been permitted to continue based on the new term-limits. There will be an effect going forward, since Assembly members going forward will be able to run for re-election. In addition, the new overall limit of 12 years might encourage members with six years, to run for 3 more terms in the Assembly, rather than one term in the senate.
In 2012, 2014, and 2016 new candidates did not decide to run because they could envisage a 12-year period in Sacramento once elected, but rather because there was an opening forced by removal of the incumbent.
Most senators (23 of 40) are still under the old limits. This includes senators first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2018, as well as senators who had Assembly service before 2012. There may be a trickle of members covered by the old limits. For example, an assembly member who served from 2010-2016 and was term-limited in the Assembly, might run and be elected from ab even-numbered senate seat in 2018, and be permitted to serve two terms.
Term-Limited in
2018 (even) 6 old limits, now serving second senate term.
2020 (odd) 9 old limits, now serving second senate term.
2022 (even) 5 old limits, serving first senate term following pre-2012 assembly service.
2022 (even) 2 new limits, serving first full senate term, but elected to senate or assembly between 2012
and 2024 (not eligible for senate election in 2022 because would be more than 12 years.
2024 (old) 3 old limits, serving first senate term following pre-2012 assembly service.
2024 (new) 5 new limits, serving second senate term (full or part).
2026 (new) 7 new limits, serving first senate term, no assembly service.
2028 (new) 3 new limits, serving first senate term, no assembly service.
The authors made no mistake about Louisiana.
Louisiana does not hold its primary on the same date that other states hold their general election. That is a factual error.
It is true that data around the transition to open primaries may not be available for Nebraska or Louisiana, but that would not prevent analysis on possible long term effects.
I did not see anything on Page 16 that pertained to Louisiana or Nebraska.
If Congress were to establish an Open Primary date in September, and provide:
(1) Congressional primaries in which all candidates run and all voters may vote;
(2) States may provide for election by majority in the primary;
(3) Any runoff would occur in November;
(4) States may conduct other elections on that date, so long as they are open to all candidates and all voters eligible to vote in the contests.
Louisiana would surely change, and Washington would change at least with respect to the date. California would probably move their primary to January.
World Republican, World One, World Humanitarian, Global Peace, all parties, Info. Not Avail. and independents working together.
Announcing the new Global Peace Party virtual board room:
http://www.allpartysystem.org/ib-peace.shtml
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