Nate Silver has this long and interesting analysis of the process by which statisticians and pollsters make predictions, especially about U.S. presidential elections, with greatest emphasis on 2016.
Nate Silver has this long and interesting analysis of the process by which statisticians and pollsters make predictions, especially about U.S. presidential elections, with greatest emphasis on 2016.
I skimmed the article, but it appears to me that MSM navel gazing is beginning to replace depression with respect to Trump’s election.
The reality is media folks have no understanding whatsoever of science, math, statistics or almost anything else associated with numbers. The reason is because America is innumerate. Not illiterate, innumerate. They have no more understanding of the meaning of numbers than a child in 2nd grade. They also have no understanding of the scientific method – they believe that repeatable science like splitting the atom is the same as forecasting the temperature of the earth 50 years from now.
Whenever I read something like: “there is a 85% probability that Hillary will be elected” (from the NYT the day before the election – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html), or that “ocean levels will rise by six feet” (Google the March 2016 study published in a peer reviewed journal), I shake my head at the ignorance displayed by all who are involved in such proclamations. But most importantly I blame the “profession” of journalism.
IMO, there are several reasons for the downfall of journalism from its vaunted position as the 4th estate, the arbiter of truth, including:
1. The projection of certainty by reporters when none exists. They have no understanding of the difference between the certainty of long standing accepted science (repeatable via experiment) , and magic number crunching by computers to forecast the future (garbage in-garbage out).
2. Bias. It doesn’t really matter whether it is confirmation bias (innocent) or outright fraud (lying).
3. In many cases, reporters are arrogant social justice warriors who really have no interest in journalism – they are crusaders who believe they are on a mission to fix the evils of our society, and thus what they say and write is justified regardless of the truth.
The many voices on the Internet have exposed the nakedness of the emperor (journalism). Its a long time coming, and well deserved.
Multiple Prez EC gerrymander areas —
50 States + CD gerrymander districts in ME and NE + DC
Reality — the about 12 marginal areas (usual suspect areas) from the prior election —
in the 45-55 percent range.
Donkeys still in a state of shock from the 1994 USA H Reps election and the 2016 Prez election ??? —
ie shocked that ALL folks are NOT communist control freak statists — esp since 1932.
Silver is certainly numerate. He also has no problem accurately predicting Republican victories such as the House and Senate elections of 2010.
It’s too easy to call the New York Times innumerate. If they were truly innumerate, then their errors would fall randomly. Instead, all their errors fall on one side. I think they are both numerate and biased, but their reporters word their erroneous reporting such that they can make sham innumerate denials when called on the errors.