No one knows how many votes will be cast for president in any state in November 2020. But if one uses the November 2016 vote as a substitute, one can calculate that 72.8% of the voters will use a ballot that has Howie Hawkins’ name. Without the three Democratic Party challenges to him in Montana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, his percentage would have been 79.8%.
The 2020 percentage for him is better than it was for the Green presidential nominee in 1996, 2004, and 2008.
Well, the setbacks in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is obviously disappointing, but that’s not a bad number overall, and it doesn’t count the many states where he’s a qualified write-in option either. Either way, I’m voting Howie hell or high water, but I’m not like to forget the Democratic Party’s attempt to screw over democratic options.
Richard, can you do a post where you do a breakdown of which presidential tickets are on which ballots, and what percent of electors each one could get?
Who is next in line for ballot access and percent of possible electors after Hawkins? I am thinking it is probably Rocky De La Fuente, and then Brock Pierce.
Andy, the wikipedia page entitled ‘Third party and independent candidates for the 2020 United States presidential election’ basically has all this information, though of course it’s not always up to date, but it does seem pretty close to correct. It’s actually Gloria La Rive of the Party for Socialism and Liberation who is under Howie, than Rocky, than Blankenship of the Constitution Party, then Pierce.
Andy, that will be in the October 1 2020 paper issue of Ballot Access News. That issue will also have a chart showing the number of US House nominees in each state, for each party, major and minor. It is only $18 per year to subscribe to Ballot Access News, 12 issues. Send a check or use paypal. PO Box 470296, San Francisco CA 94147. BAN is 35 years old and I have never missed an issue.
Excellent.
FEC will likely have a list shortly –
after all the ballot chaos ends a bit.
I’m fairly sure that the Greens did better in 2008. They were on the ballot in 32 states and DC, with a total of 413 electoral votes that year, or states with 346 congressmen (413- 33*2- 1 since DC has no congressman), while this year’s edition is on the ballot in states with 320 congressmen (381- 30*2- 1).
That is a 10% drop in voter reach due to bogus challenges upheld by partisan courts. The influence of democratic sympathizers within various state parties also cost Greens RI, AK, and likely a few other states.
Charles, it wasn’t “partisan courts” that caused the number of Green Congressional candidates to drop from 53 to 14 in four years.
Right.
It was the futility of realizing they have very little to zero chance of winning.
-Due to Duverger’s Law.
Like I said before, I believe that without any significant government suppression of third parties, the resactionaries would still win. But they can’t help it. They are insecure and paranoid about their possession of political power. So they screw with parties and people individuals just to make sure nobody slips through the cracks.