Here is a tweet on this poll from Echelon Insights. Thanks to Clifford Thies for the heads up!
Comments
RFK, Jr. Polls 14% of the Vote in Three-Way Race with Biden & Trump — 30 Comments
1.4% sounds closer to reality.
Even Gary Johnson (who figuratively shot himself in the foot over “what is Aleppo”) managed over 3% after polling double digits, and RFK Jr. has the Kennedy name and stature. Barring an even more totalitarian than usual ballot access/”legal” crackdown against third parties, I suspect RFK Jr’s low-end results will be around 5%. He might even get 10% if he can tap into the immense dissatisfaction many voters claim to have with another Trump vs Biden matchup. And I’m not even an RFK Jr supporter (I currently support Cornel West, who I hope also gets more than that 1.4%).
Cornel West will get closer to 0.14%. Gary Johnson was a much better candidate than RFK Jr. And he could speak, which is impolite to discuss. But it’s important.
You seem to prefer exaggerated pessimism Gato. Howie Hawkins, the Green Party’s 2020 candidate, got .4% of the vote. Dr. Cornel West has much more name recognition than Hawkins did, and something of a base of support amongst people who appreciate his life’s work as a philosopher and intellectual, thus realistically he’s not going to get less than Hawkins. At least 1-2%, as he has been consistently polling between 4-6% thus far.
With or without Kennedy, neither Trump nor Biden get 50%. Chances are good that the election will be decided by 1%-2% percent within a half dozen swing states.
Trump will get at least 60%.
And at least 40 states.
There are 40+ states that are solidly blue or red. People who live in those places find it incredible that the election is even close. They hardly know anyone who is voting differently than them.
Even in the swing states, there is often a sharp division between blue metro areas, and red rural areas.
Nearly everyone in the country is living in a blue or red bubble.
WHAT PERCENT OF 45-55 PCT DD/RR RR/DD PRECINCTS ???
UNDER 10 PCT OF ALL PRECINCTS ???
USA PREZ DICTATOR/EMPEROR/TYRANT ???
A-N-Y DOUBTFUL/MARGINAL D/R CONTROL OF RIGGED GERRYMANDER STATE LEGIS HOUSES / USA H REPS ???
—
P-A-T
Without the backing of a ballot qualified political party, he’ll probably only qualify for the ballot in about 15 states which puts his ceiling in the national popular vote at about 3%. I’d say it’s an even money bet that the Libertarian nominee gets more votes than him.
RFK will be the libertarian nominee and Trump will be President.
West is not an intellectual. Commies like him do not fit that category.
WILL VI SAVE USA ??? – OR BE PURGED OUT OF THE USA ???
VIA HASEN ELB
Thank God for Trump!
Well, I and plenty of others I know are turning to RFK Jr., and I expect these numbers to only grow as Trumps once did in the 2016 election. Our greatest threat right now is ourselves- Kennedy will largely unite the country, which is necessary for the undeniable hard times to come if we mean to survive. Neither Trump nor Biden reflects this country well- if you think otherwise, congratulations, you’re in a cult- I was in the some boat as you once too, please, just wake up.
ANY HIGH VOLTAGE POWER LINES NEAR TRUMP 24/7/365 ???
ANY LIGHTNING STORMS NEAR TRUMP 24/7/365 ???
WILL LIGHTNING BOLTS COME OUT OF TRUMP’S MOUTH OR EYEBALLS ONE DAY ???
“Neither Trump nor Biden reflects this country well- if you think otherwise, congratulations, you’re in a cult-”
Actually, you are in a bubble. Everyone around you thinks like you and you find it incredible that anyone thinks differently. These “bubbles” have become sharply defined geographically.
I’m not in a cult or bubble. And I live in the ghetto with mostly dummy rats and non voters. But Trump supporters like me are getting more numerous here every day.
Anyway, it’s becoming clear that neither Trump nor Biden have anywhere near 50% support, so it’s highly possible that a significant third party candidate could cover the spread, and flip the election in the swing states.
Which way? Too soon to say.
Both major parties will work overtime to keep any third parties off the ballots, especially in the swing states, to force a polarized choice.
Trump has way more than 50% support. Turnout will be the difference maker.
“Trump has way more than 50% support. Turnout will be the difference maker.”
Turnout was YUGE in 2020, and it didn’t put Trump over.
It will be way YUGER in 2024. Also, there was a lot of cheating in 2020 that can’t be replicated in 2024 due to tightened election rules, the end of scamdemic “emergency” measures, and more people being on the lookout for it. Most importantly, Biden is not just “not Trump.” He has a record to defend, and most people are not happy with it.
“Most importantly, Biden is not just “not Trump.” He has a record to defend, and most people are not happy with it.”
“Not Trump” is still good enough for a lot of voters. Biden could be comatose, and the election would still be close. (I exaggerate, but not by much.)
The irony is that the Republicans could nominate just about anybody BUT Trump, and they could easily win. There is a really big “anybody but Trump” constituency out there.
And, the truth is, not many people have actually changed their minds either way since 2020, in spite of Biden’s pratfalls, physical, and otherwise. The election will almost be a rerun of 2020. The Trumpian narrative about “vote fraud” is just sore loser talk. Oh, that’s not to say that there was NO fraud, just not enough to change the outcome.
Wrong. It will not be close. First of all you are wrong. A lot of people have changed their minds. I personally know several. All of them in favor of Trump. I also know even more people who never voted before or have not voted in many years who are pissed off over Biden and plan to vote for Trump. There are also 2020 Biden voters who are disappointed by him and would not vote for Trump but might stay home or vote third party. I know people in all these categories. But zero who voted Trump who wouldn’t vote Trump again.
You’re also wrong about the scale of 2020 fraud. See 2000 mules.
Most Republicans are super behind Trump.
There may be some Biden voters who will switch to third party candidates in 2024, but hardly any to Trump.
Biden’s vote may dip below 50%, but Trump’s vote has never been near to 50%, and won’t be in 2024.
All in all, it should be a real nail biter of an election for everyone.
More Biden voters will stay home. More Biden voters will switch to Trump. Like I said I personally know several. More people who didn’t vote will turn out for Trump. It won’t be close.
You’re also still ignoring the evidence of mass vote fraud in 2020. See 2000 mules.
1.4% sounds closer to reality.
Even Gary Johnson (who figuratively shot himself in the foot over “what is Aleppo”) managed over 3% after polling double digits, and RFK Jr. has the Kennedy name and stature. Barring an even more totalitarian than usual ballot access/”legal” crackdown against third parties, I suspect RFK Jr’s low-end results will be around 5%. He might even get 10% if he can tap into the immense dissatisfaction many voters claim to have with another Trump vs Biden matchup. And I’m not even an RFK Jr supporter (I currently support Cornel West, who I hope also gets more than that 1.4%).
Cornel West will get closer to 0.14%. Gary Johnson was a much better candidate than RFK Jr. And he could speak, which is impolite to discuss. But it’s important.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
CLOSE STATES -DOWN ABOUT 45 – 50 PCT OF PAGE
You seem to prefer exaggerated pessimism Gato. Howie Hawkins, the Green Party’s 2020 candidate, got .4% of the vote. Dr. Cornel West has much more name recognition than Hawkins did, and something of a base of support amongst people who appreciate his life’s work as a philosopher and intellectual, thus realistically he’s not going to get less than Hawkins. At least 1-2%, as he has been consistently polling between 4-6% thus far.
With or without Kennedy, neither Trump nor Biden get 50%. Chances are good that the election will be decided by 1%-2% percent within a half dozen swing states.
Trump will get at least 60%.
And at least 40 states.
There are 40+ states that are solidly blue or red. People who live in those places find it incredible that the election is even close. They hardly know anyone who is voting differently than them.
Even in the swing states, there is often a sharp division between blue metro areas, and red rural areas.
Nearly everyone in the country is living in a blue or red bubble.
WHAT PERCENT OF 45-55 PCT DD/RR RR/DD PRECINCTS ???
UNDER 10 PCT OF ALL PRECINCTS ???
USA PREZ DICTATOR/EMPEROR/TYRANT ???
A-N-Y DOUBTFUL/MARGINAL D/R CONTROL OF RIGGED GERRYMANDER STATE LEGIS HOUSES / USA H REPS ???
—
P-A-T
Without the backing of a ballot qualified political party, he’ll probably only qualify for the ballot in about 15 states which puts his ceiling in the national popular vote at about 3%. I’d say it’s an even money bet that the Libertarian nominee gets more votes than him.
RFK will be the libertarian nominee and Trump will be President.
West is not an intellectual. Commies like him do not fit that category.
I agree.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/eight-republican-presidential-candidates-qualify-virgin-islands-caucus
GOP VIRGIN ISLANDS — RCV !!!!
WILL VI SAVE USA ??? – OR BE PURGED OUT OF THE USA ???
VIA HASEN ELB
Thank God for Trump!
Well, I and plenty of others I know are turning to RFK Jr., and I expect these numbers to only grow as Trumps once did in the 2016 election. Our greatest threat right now is ourselves- Kennedy will largely unite the country, which is necessary for the undeniable hard times to come if we mean to survive. Neither Trump nor Biden reflects this country well- if you think otherwise, congratulations, you’re in a cult- I was in the some boat as you once too, please, just wake up.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-prefer-die-electrocution-123220847.html
ANY HIGH VOLTAGE POWER LINES NEAR TRUMP 24/7/365 ???
ANY LIGHTNING STORMS NEAR TRUMP 24/7/365 ???
WILL LIGHTNING BOLTS COME OUT OF TRUMP’S MOUTH OR EYEBALLS ONE DAY ???
“Neither Trump nor Biden reflects this country well- if you think otherwise, congratulations, you’re in a cult-”
Actually, you are in a bubble. Everyone around you thinks like you and you find it incredible that anyone thinks differently. These “bubbles” have become sharply defined geographically.
I’m not in a cult or bubble. And I live in the ghetto with mostly dummy rats and non voters. But Trump supporters like me are getting more numerous here every day.
Anyway, it’s becoming clear that neither Trump nor Biden have anywhere near 50% support, so it’s highly possible that a significant third party candidate could cover the spread, and flip the election in the swing states.
Which way? Too soon to say.
Both major parties will work overtime to keep any third parties off the ballots, especially in the swing states, to force a polarized choice.
Trump has way more than 50% support. Turnout will be the difference maker.
“Trump has way more than 50% support. Turnout will be the difference maker.”
Turnout was YUGE in 2020, and it didn’t put Trump over.
It will be way YUGER in 2024. Also, there was a lot of cheating in 2020 that can’t be replicated in 2024 due to tightened election rules, the end of scamdemic “emergency” measures, and more people being on the lookout for it. Most importantly, Biden is not just “not Trump.” He has a record to defend, and most people are not happy with it.
“Most importantly, Biden is not just “not Trump.” He has a record to defend, and most people are not happy with it.”
“Not Trump” is still good enough for a lot of voters. Biden could be comatose, and the election would still be close. (I exaggerate, but not by much.)
The irony is that the Republicans could nominate just about anybody BUT Trump, and they could easily win. There is a really big “anybody but Trump” constituency out there.
And, the truth is, not many people have actually changed their minds either way since 2020, in spite of Biden’s pratfalls, physical, and otherwise. The election will almost be a rerun of 2020. The Trumpian narrative about “vote fraud” is just sore loser talk. Oh, that’s not to say that there was NO fraud, just not enough to change the outcome.
Wrong. It will not be close. First of all you are wrong. A lot of people have changed their minds. I personally know several. All of them in favor of Trump. I also know even more people who never voted before or have not voted in many years who are pissed off over Biden and plan to vote for Trump. There are also 2020 Biden voters who are disappointed by him and would not vote for Trump but might stay home or vote third party. I know people in all these categories. But zero who voted Trump who wouldn’t vote Trump again.
You’re also wrong about the scale of 2020 fraud. See 2000 mules.
Most Republicans are super behind Trump.
There may be some Biden voters who will switch to third party candidates in 2024, but hardly any to Trump.
Biden’s vote may dip below 50%, but Trump’s vote has never been near to 50%, and won’t be in 2024.
All in all, it should be a real nail biter of an election for everyone.
More Biden voters will stay home. More Biden voters will switch to Trump. Like I said I personally know several. More people who didn’t vote will turn out for Trump. It won’t be close.
You’re also still ignoring the evidence of mass vote fraud in 2020. See 2000 mules.