January 2, 2024, is the deadline for a group to qualify as a political party in Maine. A group or party needs 5,000 registered members to obtain or keep qualified status. Already the Democratic, Republican, Green Independent, and No Labels Party had enough registrants. The Libertarian Party’s recent new registrations give it approximately 5,400 registered members, so it is likely it is also back on the ballot.
A strong case can be made that the deadline is unconstitutionally early, based on a 2016 U.S. District Court decision that struck down the former December (of the year before the election) deadline. In response to the lawsuit decision, the legislature only improved the deadline by a few weeks, which probably still isn’t constitutional, although there is probably no group that was seriously planning to qualify as a party anyway, other than the parties that appear to have qualified.
Unfortunately, now that the Libertarians appear to have qualified, the state will say that the early deadline is not unreasonable.
When the US Supreme Court struck down the Ohio independent presidential petition deadline in Anderson v Celebrezze, the state argued that five presidential candidates had complied with it that very same year, which was true. But the state lost the lawsuit anyway.
NOOO PRIMARIES
NO PARTIES ON BALLOTS — ONLY INDIVIDUALS WITH/WITHOUT PARTY LABELS – VIA ONE VOTER NOM PETS / FILING FEES
ALL CANDS — SAME DEADLINES
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PR
APPV
TOTSOP
No ballots.
Also, is 5400 for a 5000 requirement really a safe bet?
Depending on registration strategies, there could easily be enough that would be disqualified for various reasons – duplicates, illegible information, data entry errors, missing required information, subcontractor fraud, people who died, moved , or otherwise lost eligibility after the point when they filled out one of the 5400, people who weren’t eligible but applied anyway, people who later changed their mind and switched it again, etc, etc.
Where does RFK Jr. fall in all this Richard Winger ?
There’s different qualification procedure for independent candidates.
White, it isn’t as though the Libertarian Party just submitted 5,400 registration cards in the last few months. The party already had 2,000 registrants back in June 2023.
That makes it less likely, but still possible, for them to not have enough valid.
One additional reason for invalid registrations can be people filling out applications with false information. Some people may be genuinely confused about things like where they live, their name, date of birth, etc; some lie, for whatever reasons; some are actually putting down correct information, but somewhere a data entry error crept in to government databases which verify identity, and their voter registration applications are erroneously rejected by town clerks for not matching those records.
A lot of contractors like to collect registrations from college students. It’s a logical place to go since there’s plentiful foot traffic and many ineligible but not yet registered voters, among other reasons to go there.
But college students tend to move every year, often in August or September. A fair number move more than once a year. It’s quite possible for a fair number to have registered, say, libertarian in^ the spring and No Labels in fall.
Did you mean eligible. Not ineligible?
Yes, thank you. It was a fraudian slip.
Registration numbers are always fluctuating, but unless the state were to specifically audit the voters who are affiliated Libertarian they aren’t going to find masses of invalid registrations. Maine LP obviously needs to put effort into maintaining and growing the number of Libertarian affiliated voters but the Sec. of State is too busy fighting about Trump to go digging up duplicate registrations and such right now.
We’re talking about registration applications, not registrations. At least that’s what I thought was meant by submitted registrations. Ineligible applications are generally thrown out at the clerk’s office level (registrars office outside New England) and never show up as registrations to begin with, although they are submitted registrations as far as the submitting party knows.
Fortunately, even if the LPME registration slips below 5000 (or for some reason fails to reach it), we won’t have to start from zero again. (Result of a prior lawsuit) People will remain registered as Libertarians until they change their registration themselves.
Re: White Men Can Trump’s comment
Registration cards can be turned into municipalities, but the can also be turned into the Secretary of State’s office.
Both enter registrations into the same statewide registration database.
Re : SexyJC8675309’s comment
If RFK Jr. wanted to get on the ballot in Maine, he would have to petition. The requirement is 4,000 valid signatures from any registered voter in Maine. Plus he would also need four people who are not registered in any party to be his electors, with a minimum of one in each of the two congressional districts.
The LP should just nominate Trump.
Thanks for the clarification, but it doesn’t change my fundamental point. Ineligible registration applications are generally rejected at the level of the offices they are submitted to, and while they count as submitted registrations as far as the submitting party is concerned, they never show up on voter rolls to begin with, so any talk of purging voter rolls is besides the point.
I agree with Bob.
How many states does that give LP ballot access?
I think I count 36 but correct me if I’m wrong.
missing:
Alabama
District of Columbia
Illinois
Kentucky
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Virginia
Washington
There not even gonna try for New York, Illinois and one other (not sure which). There are also at least two states counted as done in the chart which are splinter fake parties, so LNC will petition to put them in the ballot, Massachusetts and New Mexico. There will most likely be failures from the remaining list.
Prediction, worst l.p. Presidential result since 1984 – 80% confidence. Worst since 2008 unless they manage to snag Kennedy, who doesn’t actually need them for anything -100% confidence .
2008 missed 5 states and, I think, DC, so there’s an outside chance they will beat that in state count. But given population size of NY and IL, they will certainly be a ballot option for the lowest percentage of US voters since the 1980s.
I’d lay even odds on less than a half percent and no better than 5th place. My best guess is 0.25% and 6th or 7th.