On March 10, New Hampshire held a special election to fill the vacant State House seat in the Carroll County 7th district. The results: Democratic 51.9%; Republican 48.1%. When this seat had last been up, in November 2024, the results had been: Republican 56.8%; Democratic 43.2%.
Rigged?
AZ turned Vietnamese?
Shoot Charlie!
Hmmm… seems like a trend is occurring.
Differential turnout.
The former representative had been representative since 2012, who had moved out of New Hampshire, triggering the special election. In 2024 he had run behind the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Kelly Ayotte, but ahead of the Republican presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump. Kamala Harris had actually carried Wolfeboro, the largest town in the district.
It would have been easy to portray the Republican candidate as an outsider, even a carpetbagger. His own campaign biography may have highlighted this, where he says he fell in love with New Hampshire in 1983 when he attended a summer camp. In 2015, his family “began” moving to New Hampshire. I think they may have sold their house and lived out of a van as they home-schooled their sons. In 2023, they actually made it to New Hampshire, but not in the district, and they spent part of 2024 making a transatlantic sailing in their own catamaran. In 2025, they moved to Wolfeboro, but had not registered to vote. Fincher missed the deadline because they did not understand how small town NH government works. That is why he had to win the Republican primary as a write-in.
The turnout in Ossipee, the most Republican town in the district was only 36% of 2024, while in Wolfesboro it was over 50%. Ossipee is a resort town, and part-time residents have not returned for the summer. A part-time resident is more likely to apply for an absentee ballot for the general election with president and gubernatorial elections on the line, than for a special election for the legislature. People who go south in the Winter may travel after the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays when the grandkids may visit, then return in May or June once the weather warms up.
Or it could just be the case that Democrats were more likely to vote in the special election.
Democrats are generally more fired up right now, as can be seen from, for example, Texas primary turnout or the unusually high D percentage in the usually heavily Republican northwest corner of Georgia, but the local factors you mentioned may also be important.