This article in California’s Capitol Weekly newspaper explains that several California legislators are very likely to be defeated in 2012 (if they try to run for re-election), because of the new Citizens Redistricting Commission process for drawing boundaries for the next decade’s legislative districts.
The article does not mention another factor that will injure incumbents. Ever since 1879, the California Constitution has required candidates for the legislature to have lived in the district for at least one year before running. However, this provision has not been enforced since the 1970’s, when California officials decided to ignore it because they believe the U.S. Constitution doesn’t permit duration of residency requirements for candidates. But a lawsuit now pending in the State Court of Appeals, Fuller v Bowen, C065237, could force the state to start enforcing it. Duration of residency requirements are especially tough for incumbents in times of redistricting. The article notes that many legislators may be forced to move, a process that is far more difficult when there is a duration of residency requirement. The lawsuit lost in Superior Court, because the Superior Court also ruled that the U.S. Constitution bans duration of residency requirements. But this is a very dubious idea. The U.S. Supreme Court summarily affirmed New Hampshire’s 7-year duration of residency requirement in 1975, for candidates for State Senate, in a case called Sununu v Stark. Also the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1982 in Clements in Fashing that there is no constitutional right to be a candidate.
Half the votes in half the gerrymander districts = about 25 percent ANTI-Democracy indirect minority rule —-
who ever or what ever is drawing the gerrymander district lines.
It will take about a nanosecond for the party hacks to determine 2012 election odds after the new CA gerrymander commission produces its JUNK maps.
P.R. and App.V.
—-
How about a 200 years durational residency for party hack candidates ???
For the clueless – each election in the U.S.A. has been a W-A-R since 1930 at least — 80 years and counting — the party hack DEVILS from political Hell versus the People.
Considering that the commission isn’t even fully staffed yet, and nobody has any idea how they’ll draw things, this article is nothing more than speculative baloney.
We already know the initiatives that established the commission requires the commission to keep cities together, to the fullest extent possible, so I think the article is accurate.
http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/.const/.article_21
Gee – some attempted gerrymander restrictions for a New Age Gerrymander Commission.
Party hack incumbents will be having ARMIES of lawyers trying to save *their* gerrymander districts — whatever the NAGC does.
See #1 above.
#3 OTOH, the requirement that Assembly districts should nest inside House districts is likely to make situations like that of Tom Berryhill less likely, where an Assemblyman did not live in the senate district which he represented a very large chunk of, and wanted to run.
I think it was implicit in the article that incumbents would likely live in a district that it is a somewhat natural fit for them, and that their current badly gerrymandered districts simply won’t exist (IIRC, one of the districts in the article currently runs from La Canada to east of San Bernardino.
Also, the districts are supposed to be defined by August 2011. The 1-year district residency provision applies at the time of election, in November 2012. An ambitious incumbent has two months to move to an apartment.
I think that there will be a strong emphasis by the redistricting commission to draw racially-based districts. These could produce situations where an incumbent doesn’t exactly live in the community they seek to represent, which may not have the most desirable housing stock. The legislature could take care of situations by shifting boundaries here and there.
If Fuller v Bowen ever makes it to the Supreme Court, hopefully the court will rule that Article 4 Section 5 applies and that the court case was a waste if time.
Recognizing that other than Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose and San Francisco every other city in California has a population of less than 1 Assembly seat that shouldn’t be too difficult of a feat to do. Fresno, Sacramento and Long Beach currently each have slightly above 1/80th of the states population. So they should each be assigned a single Assembly seat that can be taken care of by using the 5% variance rule.
Counties are going to be a lot trickier to draw though.
Alameda, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego and Santa Clara all have enough people for at least 1 entire State Senate seat with people to spare. Also, there are nearly a dozen other Counties with more than enough people for a single Assembly seat.
I disagree with Jim Riley with his belief that District boundaries will be substantially motivated by race. It would be in serious conflict with the position that keeping Cities and Counties intact (as far as possible) should be a prime focus of the Redistricting Commission.
Personally, if I were drawing the lines I would first take care of the Congressional seats then work on the Assembly. After that, it would be relatively easy work to combine the new Assembly seats into State Senate and Board of Equalization seats.
Long axis – split even/odd
Districts – 1 or more local regimes and/or parts of 1 or 2
Local regimes – 1 or more districts and/or parts of 1 or 2.
SOOOOOOOO difficult.
Black and hispanic usual suspect gangs will be yelling per usual.
Political DOOM for many white gerrymander Donkeys.
#6
(4) The geographic integrity of any city, county, city and county, neighborhood, or community of interest shall be respected to the extent possible without violating the requirements of any of the preceding subdivisions.
One of the requirements of the preceding subdivisions is compliance with the VRA.
1965 VRA — a giant perversion / subversion of 15th Amdt, Sec. 1 — to be read in connection with 14th Amdt, Sec. 2.
See the about 8 inches of debates in Jan-Feb 1869 in the Congressional Globe about what became the 15th Amdt [and what was NOT put in the proposed amendment] — now available on the Library of Congress website.
But mere legislative histories mean about zero to the New Age party hack SCOTUS MORONS — with their politically correct agendas.
If the district lines are redrawn then they are all new districts. If the new districts are not in place a year before the election then no one has lived in that district for a year therefore no one can run. Actually it sounds like the new districts would have to be in place at least a year before the deadline to file as a candidate.
#10 The one year residency period is measured from the time of election (November 2012). The redistricting commission is supposed to have the boundaries defined by August 2011. That is 14 months.
And in any case, they would at minimum be interpreted as having been in place 12 months before the election.
To Charles Deemer,
What 5% variance rule are you writing about for assembly
districts?
Each senate district will have two assemble district. Ten senate districts will make up one Board of Equalization District. Los Angeles County will have one
Board of Equalizations District of which four of its Senate District will be in the City of Los Angeles.
The City of Long Beach will have a whole assembly district within in borders, with not part of the City
of Signal Hill in that district.
As of now it looks like over half of CA state population will be in San Diego,Imperial, Riverside, Orange and Los Angeles Counties. Therefore with that
April 1, 2010 census numbers The 4th Board of Equalization District will include the whole counties of Imperial, San Diego, Orange, Riverside counties and
part of the remainder of Los Angeles County. Therefore in 2012 San Bernadino County will be part of the 2nd
Board of Equalization District.
From my talks yesterday with officials at the Los Angeles County Registrar of Votes either “flagpoles”
or a “checkerboards” will be used to connect the City
of San Fernando with unincorporated Los Angeles County
unincorporated territory and the dual cities of Beverly
Hills/West Hollywood.
Also it looks like both the Assembly and Congressional
districts for San Francisco City and County will from
Northward from the San Mateo/San Francisco County line.
With the Northern parts of the City and County going North to included the whole of Marin County and beyond.
This will reduce the total numbers members on some American Independent County Central Commitees.
Former Vice President Gerry would be shocked if he could have seen the final maps of Districts in California, he might even roll over in his grave.
Sincerely, Mark Seidenberg, Vice Chairman, American Independent Party.
P.S. To understand how a “flagpole” connection works see a city map of Santa Barbara. For and understanding of a “checkerboard” look at a map of Palm Springs.