Trump Campaign Loses in Third Circuit, in Case Alleging Pennsylvania Presidential Votes Should be Set Aside

On Friday, November 27, President Trump lost his election case in the Third Circuit. He had alleged that different Pennsylvania counties had used different procedures for accepting ballots, and that therefore the entire popular vote should be ruled invalid. Donald J. Trump for President Inc. v Secretary Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 20-3371. This is the first election-counting decision from 2020 from any U.S. Court of Appeals.

The decision is by Judge Stephanos Bibas, a Trump appointee. It is also signed by two George Bush, Jr. appointees, D. Brooks Smith and Michael Chagares. The decision says that just because different counties use somewhat different procedures concerning ballot acceptance, that in itself does not violate the Equal Protection Clause. The decision also says, “The Campaign never alleges that any ballot was fraudulent or cast by any illegal voter.” Here is the decision. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.

Esri Demographics Estimates How Many U.S. House Seats Each State Will Have in 2022-2030

Esri Demographics here estimates that if no new states are admitted soon, nine U.S. House seats will be reapportioned. Texas will gain 3. These states would gain one: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. These states would each lose one: California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

The article also estimates what would happen if either Puerto Rico or the District of Columbia were admitted, and if the size of the U.S. House were not increased.

Assuming that the article is correct about Rhode Island, the Rhode Island ballot access law would then contain an anomaly. The law says candidates for U.S. Senator and Governor each need 1,000 signatures, and that U.S. House candidates need 500. If Rhode Island only has one seat in the coming decade, and the law is not amended, it would be somewhat peculiar that U.S. House, which would become a statewide office, would require only half as many signatures as for U.S. Senate and Governor.

Assuming that Montana increases from one U.S. House member to two, the Montana law can handle the situation with no need for an amendment. Section 13-10-502 says the number of signatures for an independent is 5% of the winning candidate’s vote for the same office in the last election (which is far too difficult). But it also says in case the office hadn’t existed in the last election, the Secretary of State must calculate the new requirement, presumably by imagining that the new district lines had existed in the past election, and calculating theoretical numbers within each district. This is a time-consuming task, and the Secretary of State could save herself trouble if she asked the legislature to amend the petition requirement and impose a flat number of signatures instead of a percentage.

Some County Election Offices Keep Track of All Presidential Write-ins, Even Though the Law Doesn’t Require It

In most states, write-ins for president in the general election are only tallied statewide for write-in candidates who filed a declaration of candidacy. But around the nation, some county election officials go beyond the requirement of the law, and record all the write-ins. This means that there can never be a final complete total of all presidential vote returns. Anyone who has the patience to visit county election offices is likely to find tallies that don’t appear on the official state returns.

For example, Rowan County, North Caorlina made available a list of all write-ins for president, and this newspaper story has information about that. In North Carolina, Jade Simmons was the only write-in candidate who filed. Few write-in candidates file for write-in status in North Carolina, because the state requires them to also submit a petition of 500 names, but a rather early deadline.

New Hampshire Secretary of State Tallies All Presidential Write-ins and Reports Totals for Candidates with At Least Ten Write-ins

Unlike most states that have write-in space on presidential general election ballots, New Hampshire has no procedure for a write-in candidate to file a declaration of write-in candidacy. Instead, New Hampshire simply tallies all presidential write-ins. This year the Secretary of State’s website lists everyone who got at least ten write-ins for president. Although Howie Hawkins had the most, all the others who got at least 100 were not actual candidates, but were famous Democrats and Republicans, such as Michelle Obama and Mitt Romney. See the list here. Click on the pdf for the write-ins.