Fivethirtyeight.com Analysis of How Minor Party and Independent Presidential Candidates 1968-2000 Altered Outcome

Fivethirtyeight.com has this interesting analysis of how minor party and independent presidential candidates who got at least 2% of the vote, for the period 1968 through 2000, affected the final outcome. The story’s title leads one to think it is just another story about Donald Trump, but it is more than that.

The story properly shows that Ross Perot’s 1992 run did not affect the Democratic-Republican ratio at all. This is a useful reference to rebut the constant claim that Perot in 1992 caused Clinton to win. The story is also very interesting for its 1968 data.

U.S. District Court Rules Pennsylvania System of Imposing Costs on Minor Party Petitions that Lack Sufficient Signatures is Unconstitutional

On July 24, U.S. District Court Judge Lawrence Stengel issued a 41-page opinion in Constitution Party of Pennsylvania v Cortes, e.d., 12-cv-2726. He determined that Pennsylvania’s system of charging huge court costs against petitioning candidates and groups violates the U.S. Constitution, as applied to the minor parties who filed the lawsuit. The three parties who filed the lawsuit are the Constitution, Green and Libertarian Parties. UPDATE: see this newspaper story.

The decision rests on the fact that it has become routine in Pennsylvania for major party figures to challenge, or to threaten to challenge, statewide minor party petitions. The decision goes through the sad history. The idea of charging up to $100,000 in court costs originated in Pennsylvania in 2004, when Ralph Nader was subject to costs of $81,102 after his petition was rejected. The opinion then describes the 2006 election, when Green Party U.S. Senate nominee Carl Romanelli was ordered to pay $80,407, after the other Green Party statewide nominees had withdrawn for fear of costs. Then the decision describes 2008, when the Green and Constitution Parties did not even try to petition in Pennsylvania. Then the decision discusses 2010, when the Libertarian and Green Parties both petitioned, but after both were threatened, they withdrew their petitions.

Then the decision discusses 2012, when the Libertarian Party was threatened again, but it defended its petition and that petition was found valid. The decision talks about the burden on the Libertarians, who had to find 70 volunteers to sit all day during the validation process. The decision also notes that the Constitution Party withdrew its petition. The Green Party did petition and it wasn’t challenged, perhaps because it only fielded candidates for President but none of the other statewide offices. Finally, the decision mentions 2014, when no statewide minor party submitted any petitions.

Although the decision only applies to the three plaintiffs, the basis for the decision would apply to any statewide minor party or independent candidate, because, as the decision notes, minor party and independent candidates for statewide office need so many signatures (typically 25,000), that their costs when petitions are rejected are very large. The decision does not apply yet to major party candidates petitioning to get on the ballot in the primary because they never need more than 2,000 signatures. Also the decision notes that no major party person seeking to get on a primary for statewide office has ever been subject to court costs.

This is a major victory for ballot access. The case was won by Oliver Hall, who has been Ralph Nader’s ballot access attorney for many years.

Two FEC Commissioners Vote to Consider New Rules for General Election Presidential Debates

On July 16, the Federal Election Commission voted 4-2 to reject the request for a new rule concerning general election presidential debates. The two commissioners who voted in favor of considering a better rule are Ann Ravel and Ellen Weintraub, both Democrats. It is believed this is the first time any FEC Commissioner has voted to do something about the problem that the Commission on Presidential Debates excludes candidates who are not Republican or Democratic nominees.

Public Policy Poll Results for Major Party Presidential Nomination Contests and General Election as Well

On July 22, Public Policy Polling released a comprehensive poll for the 2016 presidential race. The poll has results for the Republican nomination race and the Democratic nomination race, and general election results as well. See here.

For the Republican race, there is a tie for tenth place between Chris Christie and John Kasich, each of whom has 3%. The tenth position is important because Fox News won’t allow anyone into its evening debate on August 6 except for the top ten candidates. Thanks to Political Wire for the link.