On May 10, Reuters/IPSOS released this poll for the presidential general election. It shows Hillary Clinton 36.2%; Donald Trump 35.8%; other or won’t vote 27.9%.
When the people who say they probably won’t vote are eliminated, the percentages are: Clinton 41%; Trump 40%; other or undecided 19%.
On May 11, the Ninth Circuit heard arguments in Arizona Green Party v Reagan, 14-15976. This Courthouse News Service story describes the hearing.
However, the story does not mention that the Green Party, which missed the deadline in 2014, did nevertheless complete the petition, albeit not until May 2014. The party’s attorney brought the completed petition into the U.S. District Court to demonstrate that the party did complete the petition. Technically, however, this is not considered evidence.
Another point not mentioned in the story is that Arizona’s deadline for an independent presidential candidate is only sixty days before the general election, and that petition this year requires 35,514 signatures. Also, the Arizona Constitution says the petition deadline for statewide initiatives is only four months before the general election, and Arizona statewide initiatives require hundreds of thousands of signatures. Yet the state seems able to cope. Logically, one wonders why the state needs the new party petition six months before the primary.
On May 11, U.S. District Court Judge James M. Moody, Jr., moved the trial in Libertarian Party of Arkansas v Martin from August to July 11. The issue is whether the Libertarians who were nominated at a convention a few months ago should be on the November ballot. The Libertarian Party, as a new party, nominates by convention and does not have a primary. The state law says new parties must have their only nominating convention more than a year before the general election. Although the Libertarian Party did comply with this law and nominated many candidates in November 2015, since then it has held another nominating convention, and nominated more candidates.
The party contests the law that says all its nominees must have been chosen more than a year before the election. The judge’s decision to move the hearing to July shows that he is taking the case seriously.
The major parties nominate all their candidates in a March primary in the election year itself.
U.S. District Court Judge Gregory Van Tatenhove will hear oral argument in Libertarian Party of Kentucky v Grimes, 3:15cv-86, on Thursday, May 19, at 11 a.m. in the federal courthouse in Frankfort, Kentucky. Case number 3:15cv-86. The Constitution Party is a co-plaintiff.
The issue is Kentucky’s failure to have a procedure by which a previously unqualified party can become a qualified party, in advance of an election. Kentucky only has candidate petitions, not party petitions. If and only if the presidential candidate of an unqualified party polls 2% will the group become a qualified party. In the last 100 years, only four times has any group met this hurdle: Progressive in 1924, American in 1968, Anderson Coalition in 1980, and Reform in 1996.
Besides Kentucky, other pending ballot access cases that will determine whether certain minor parties get on the ballot for President and other office in time for the 2016 election, without further petitioning, are in Maine, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. There are also cases pending that only affect other office, not President, in Arkansas and South Dakota.
Here is a link to the Nebraska Secretary of State’s web page, showing primary election results as they come in. The Libertarian presidential primary is just below the Democratic presidential primary.
