Florida Republican Presidential Primary Ballot Access Rules

Posted on by September 28, 2015
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Here are the rules on how a candidate gets on the Florida Republican presidential primary ballot this year. The petition alternative requires 125 signatures from each of the state’s 27 U.S. House districts. The old district boundaries are to be used, even though the district boundaries are about to be changed.

The rules say the petitions must be collected by volunteers. But in Duke v Smith, the 11th circuit ruled that Florida presidential primary ballot access rules are state action, despite the discretion given to the major political parties. And the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1988, in Meyer v Grant, that a ban on paying circulators violates the U.S. Constitution.

The petitions are due November 23. Probably no one expects any petitions to be circulated, because the alternatives appear easier: either attending a particular party fund-raising event, or paying $25,000. Thanks to Michael Auslen for the link.

Jonathan Bernstein Tries to Defend Debates Limited to Only the Democratic and Republican Nominees

Posted on by September 28, 2015
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Jonathan Bernstein, a Bloomberg View columnist and author, has written two pieces this year defending debates that include only the Republican and Democratic nominees. Here is his latest column, “Leave the Debates Alone.” His article says that when others are invited into the debates, the results are undesirable. He then links to an article about the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election, in which Reform Party nominee Jesse Ventura was included in all the debates and won the election. To see that, use the link that is in his paragraph that starts, “In addition, multiparty, first-past-the-elections tend to be unstable.”

Bernstein also links to his June 2015 article called, “Debates Aren’t Broken So Don’t Fix Them.” That piece has a link to yet another article (written in 2012) which claims that debates don’t affect the outcome of the election.

Bernstein says nothing about the presidential primary presidential debates, which have had multiple candidates and have attracted very big audiences. He says nothing about the fact that the general election presidential debates, with only the Democrat and Republican included in all elections for the last 19 years, have had declining viewership over the last decade. He says nothing about public opinion polls which say that the public wants inclusive debates. Finally, he does not acknowledge that the general election debates are financed with corporate donations.

Frontloading HQ Suggests North Carolina Governor Might Veto Bill Setting Primaries on March 15

Posted on by September 28, 2015
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Frontloading HQ here raises the possibility that North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory might veto HB 373, the bill that passed the legislature last week and puts all primaries (presidential and non-presidential alike) on March 15, 2016.

There are two problems with the bill that might cause a veto: (1) the state Republican Party wants to award delegates proportionally to the popular vote, but the bill says the primary should be winner-take-all; (2) the bill changes an unrelated campaign finance provision, and the Republican Party state organization doesn’t like the new campaign finance measure.

The legislature is still in session, so if the bill is vetoed, there is time to pass another bill.

Likely New Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, Expected to be More Confrontational and Partisan than John Boehner

Posted on by September 28, 2015
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According to this CNN story, the likely new Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, is expected to be more confrontational and partisan than outgoing speaker John Boehner.

McCarthy is from California, which has been using a top-two system starting in 2011. The big business interests who most strongly support California’s top-two system always seem to have sincerely believed that a top-two system produces more moderate politicians. If McCarthy behaves as CNN predicts, that will be one more data point that primary systems do not affect the kind of politicians who get elected, or their behavior. Thanks to PoliticalWire for the link.