Polls Suggest Some Likelihood that California Republicans Won’t Have a Member on the November 2016 Ballot for U.S. Senate

Posted on by September 19, 2015
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Two strong Democrats are seeking the California U.S. Senate open seat in 2016. They are Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. House Member Lorettz Sanchez. According to this story, both of them have been endorsed by a substantial number of California Democratic U.S. House members. The story mentions a recent poll of the entire electorate that shows Harris at 26% and Sanchez at 17%. Three fairly prominent Republicans have also announced for the seat, but none of them has as much voter support as 10%.

If the current California system is not changed before the 2016 election, there is a fair possibility that the U.S. Senate ballot in November would include Harris and Sanchez and no one else, and there is no write-in space in November for Congressional races. This would be the first time any statewide race in either of the top-two states excluded one of the two major parties.

California has not had a U.S. Senator from outside the San Francisco Bay Area since before the 1992 election. Part of Sanchez’ appeal may be a regional appeal. Harris lives in San Francisco.

Former Advisor to President George W. Bush Suggests if Trump Wins Republican Nomination, Someone Like Mitt Romney Might Run Independently

Posted on by September 19, 2015
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According to this story, Mark McKinnon, former chief media strategist to President George W. Bush, said on National Public Radio on September 17 that if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, Republican leaders who oppose Trump should consider qualifying an independent ticket. McKinnon suggested Mitt Romney might be such a candidate.

Texas Secessionists Trying to Use Obscure Procedure to Get their Idea on Republican Primary Ballot

Posted on by September 18, 2015
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Texas does not have the statewide initiative. But it does have an obscure procedure in its election code for a group to petition for a statewide measure in a party primary. The procedure has existed since 1907, but apparently has never been used.

The Texas Nationalist Movement hopes to use the procedure, and to put a question on the March 2016 Texas Republican primary ballot asking if the party should endorse independence for Texas. See this story. The law requires a petition signed by 10% of the last primary turnout. The Texas Republican primary turnout was so low that only 66,894 signatures are needed, by December 2015. The group started circulating in August and hopes to succeed. The group’s web page is thetnm.org.

Party organizations can also put questions on a party primary ballot without the need for a petition, and Texas Republicans do that fairly often. The leadership of the Republican Party does not support the idea of secession for Texas and will probably try to prevent the question from appearing on the party’s primary ballot if it can. Thanks to Jim Goodluck for the link and to Jim Riley for explaining the Texas law, which is in sections 172.087 and 172.088.