Chuck Todd, Host of Meet the Press, Says he is Surprised There is No Strong Presidential Candidate Running Outside the Two Major Parties

Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”, said on Sunday, July 5, that he is surprised no strong presidential candidate has emerged who is running outside the two major parties.

Historically, such candidates don’t emerge until the election year itself. Theodore Roosevelt didn’t decide to organize his Progressive Party until June 1912, after Roosevelt had been defeated for the Republican presidential nomination. Robert La Follette didn’t announce as an independent progressive candidate until July 4, 1924, after it became apparent the Democratic national convention wouldn’t nominate a progressive. Strom Thurmond didn’t launch his States Rights campaign for the presidency until July 1948, after the Democratic national convention had voted to add a civil rights plank. Ross Perot didn’t even hint that he would be an independent candidate for president until February 20, 1992, the night he said on Larry King’s interview show that he would run as an independent only if his supporters successfully petitioned to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states.

The U.S. Supreme Court decision Anderson v Celebrezze took note of the nation’s history to justify striking down early petition deadlines for independent and new political parties. The reason strong presidential candidates don’t emerge until the election year is that everyone is waiting to see who the major parties will nominate, and at this point no one can predict the Republican nominee, and even the Democratic nominee is not certain to be Hillary Clinton. Thanks to Presidential Debate News for the link.

USA Today Article Analyzes Strengths and Weaknesses of Debates with Up to Ten Participants

USA Today’s Rick Hampson has this lengthy analysis of the virtues and flaws of debates that have as many as ten candidates. The latter part of the article discusses how candidates in such debates can succeed. The very bottom of the article gives the schedule and location for the next nine Republican presidential debates. Three are in the west, three are in the midwest, two are in the south, and only one is in the east.

Bloomberg Politics Article Highlights Deficiencies in Fox News’ August 6 Debate Criteria

This Bloomberg Politics article authored by Steven Yaccino notes problems with the Fox News Republican debate criteria. Fox News still has not said which polls it will depend on to determine which Republicans will be invited into its August 6 debate. By contrast, CNN, which will host the September debate, has already said which polls it will use.

The article also quotes statisticians who say that using polls to determine the top ten, at a time when many polls show ties for eight, ninth and tenth place, is arbitrary. One statistician is quoted as saying, “Methodologically, they might as well be drawing straws.” Also the story explains that some presidential primaries are open, some are semi-closed, and some are closed. Yet a national poll can’t account for differences in the various state primary systems. Therefore, the decision of various polls to either include or exclude certain classes of voters (such as independents, or members of other parties) may determine the results; there is no obvious best way to handle this in a nationwide poll.

UPDATE: also see this story, in which a Fox spokesperson says the network will use “a range of quality polls”, which does not answer any of the objections mentioned in the Bloomberg story.

Washington State’s Top-Two System is Correlated with Dysfunction in Legislature

Washington state’s legislature is in the ninth day of its third special session this year. The legislature has sat more days in 2015 than in any previous calendar year since Washington became a state in 1889. The extended sessions are mostly related to deadlock over the state budget. Special sessions are called when the regular legislative session can’t get its work done. Usually the work that doesn’t get done in regular sessions is passing the budget.

Washington has been using the top-two system starting in 2008. There were two special legislative sessions in 2010, two in 2011, two in 2012, three in 2013, and three this year. Prior to the onset of the top-two system, there had only been six years in Washington history that needed three special sessions. Here is the data going back to 1889.

Political scientist Boris Shor showed in August 2014 that Washington state has the nation’s fourth most polarized legislature. Here is a story about the current special session.