DEMOCRATIC HOSTILITY TO ROBERT KENNEDY, JR. MAY HAVE COST KAMALA HARRIS THE PRESIDENCY
The popular vote in the November 5, 2024 presidential election was very close. Donald Trump received 49.86% and Kamala Harris received 48.24%. The margin between the two major candidates, 1.62%, is the smallest since 2000.
The result may have been reversed if Democratic officials had not made a effort to injure the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. candidacy, behavior which motivated him to quit the race. Between Kennedy’s announcement in October 2023 that he would be an independent candidate and August 1, 2024, his poll numbers varied from 20% to 8%, according to The Hill’s compilation of presidential polls. Kennedy declined in the polls during August, but he was still at 7% in the Pew Research Center poll released August 14. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris led in 29 of the 37 polls released in August (see the Wikipedia page “Opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election”). But then, on August 23, Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. The hostility toward him from Democratic Party leaders had been huge:
- Democrats had attacked Kennedy’s ballot access in Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, and Texas.
- Democrats worked with CNN to set debate criteria for the June 27 debate that made it impossible for Kennedy to qualify for the debate. They did this by saying his ballot access had to be confirmed in states with at least a majority of the electoral college votes by June 20. This ignored the fact that states simply do not check signatures that early.
The debate rules should have allowed secondary evidence that would have predicted with a high degree of certainty that Kennedy would be on the ballot. The rule was also discriminatory because at the time there was no certainty that the Democratic Party nominee would be President Joe Biden.
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