Andy Dawkins, Long-Time Minnesota Democratic Legislator, Joins Green Party and Will be its Nominee for Attorney General

On June 3, Andy Dawkins, who was a Democratic-Farmer-Labor representative from St. Paul, Minnesota, for 15 years, said he is now a Green Party member and that he will be the party’s candidate for Attorney General this year. He submitted more than the required 2,000 signatures. If he gets 5%, the Green Party will regain its ballot-qualified status, which it lost in November 2004. See this story. He served in the legislature 1986-2002.

In 1994, while Dawkins was in the legislature, he said that he would like to be not only the DFL nominee, but the nominee of the New Party, a forerunner to the Working Families Party. When the New Party sued Minnesota to force the state to let two parties jointly nominate the same candidate, the party’s complaint mentioned that it wanted Dawkins to be on the November ballot both as the DFL nominee and the New Party nominee. Dawkins said in a declaration that he would accept both nominations, but he did not become a co-plaintiff in the lawsuit. The lawsuit won in the 8th circuit but then lost in the U.S. Supreme Court. Thanks to Jim Ivey for the link.

Sixth Circuit Won’t Rehear Ohio Libertarian Party Ballot Access Case

On June 4, the Sixth Circuit declined to grant reconsideration to the Ohio Libertarian Party, in its ballot access case. See this story. As a result, the only candidates on the November 2014 ballot for Ohio Governor will be the nominees of the Republican, Democratic, and Green Parties.

This news enhances the odds that the Green Party will poll at least 2% for Governor and remain on the ballot for the 2016 and 2018 elections. In 2010 the Green Party got 1.52% for Governor, in a four-party race in which the Libertarian Party gubernatorial candidate polled 2.39%. Thanks to Steve Linnabary for the link.

California Primary Turnout Likely to be Lowest in State History

The June 3, 2014 California top-two primary appears likely to have had the lowest turnout in state history. California has had primaries starting in 1910, and the previous worst primary turnout was the June 2008 primary, which had no statewide offices (the presidential primary had been in March 2008) and which had a turnout of 28.22%.

The number of votes reported for Governor by 3:30 a.m. early on the morning of June 4 was 3,153,000. No further updates have been issued. Assuming there are 1,000,000 uncounted provisional and absentee ballots that had not yet been counted, that would still yield a total of 4,153,000 voters. California’s last Report of Registration showed 17,722,006 registered voters, so that would mean a turnout of 23.4%. UPDATE: the total reported at 5:30 p.m. on June 4 is 3,173,148; on June 5, 3,296,369.

The San Francisco Bay Guardian criticized the top-two system in this editorial, written before any election returns were known. The editorial is flawed because it predicted that Tim Donnelly would place second for Governor, instead of Neel Kashkari. The editorial is also flawed because it refers to Prop. 14 as an “open primary”.

Tim Donnelly outpolled Neel Kashkari in San Francisco and Alameda Counties, the two most Democratic counties in the state. This strongly suggests that some Democrats were engaging in strategic voting, something that would not have been possible in a closed or semi-closed primary.

Hawaii Filing Closes; Most Minor Party Candidates Since Statehood

Hawaii primary filing closed on July 3. This year, there are 21 candidates running in minor party primaries, the greatest number since statehood in 1959. All minor parties in Hawaii nominate all of their candidates in the August 9 primary. There are also eleven independent candidates.

The minor party candidates include sixteen Libertarians, three from the Independent Party (a new party formed this year), and two Greens. One of the Greens is Keiko Bonk, who is again running for the State House against the Democratic speaker, Calvin Say. In 2012 Bonk received 3,143 votes; Say received 5,704 votes; and the Republican nominee placed third with 1,179. The November 2012 election in this district was marred when polling places in areas in which Bonk was strongest ran out of ballots.

The Libertarian Party hopes to poll enough votes with its legislative candidates to retain its place on the ballot in 2016. In 1999 the law was changed, to provide that if a party polls for its legislative candidates a number of votes that equals 2% of all the votes cast in all legislative races, then it remains on the ballot. There are 64 legislative races up this year, and Libertarians are running in twelve of them. In five of the races, the Libertarian will be in a two-candidate race in November, and so there is a reasonable chance that the Libertarian Party will be the first minor party to retain its spot on the ballot via the 1999 “2%” amendment.

It is difficult to predict how many independent candidates will be on the ballot in November. Hawaii treats independent candidates (for office other than President) very severely. They can’t be on the November ballot unless they poll the lesser of: (1) 10% of the primary vote for that office; or (2) a number of votes that exceeds a partisan primary winner in that same race. Typically independent candidates have no chance of getting on the November ballot unless they are lucky enough to be running in a race in which a minor party person is also running, because few voters typically choose a minor party primary ballot, so the independent hopes there is a minor party entry in the race. Thanks to Bob Johnston for the news about the Hawaii candidate list.