Charlie Cook Suggests 2012 Election Could be Bad for Both Major Parties

Posted on by April 19, 2011
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Political pundit Charlie Cook has this article in National Journal. He first summarizes recent past elections. Each of the three last congressional elections saw large swings in the partisan lineup of the U.S. House. These are called “wave elections”, and 2010, 2008, and 2006 stand in sharp contrast to the preceding elections, when the national vote for U.S. House had been almost tied between the two major parties.

Cook also suggests that 2012 may be different from each of the last three elections, and that 2012 will be very bad for incumbents of both parties. He doesn’t quite say that perhaps 2012 will see a surge in support for candidates running outside the two major parties, but that seems to be his message. Thanks to Nancy Hanks for the link.

Florida Omnibus Election Law Bill Amended to Require New Parties to Submit 335,630 Valid Signatures for President

Posted on by April 19, 2011
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On April 18, the Florida Secretary of State’s omnibus election law bill was amended to require new political parties who wish to place a presidential nominee on the ballot to submit a petition signed by a number of voters, equal to 4% of the last presidential vote. For 2012, this would be 335,630 valid signatures. The 4% standard would need to be met in each of half the congressional districts in the state. The party would need to pay to have its petition checked. Under existing law, no signatures are needed for minor party presidential candidates.

The bill exempts parties that are recognized by the Federal Election Commission as national committees. However, the FEC will not grant national committee status to a new political party. The status is reserved for parties that have already organized, run a presidential candidate and congressional candidates in several states. This is why the Reform Party did not get recognized by the FEC as a national committee until after the 1996 election, and why the Green Party did not get FEC recognition until after the 2000 election.

The bill, if enacted, would violate the 11th circuit decision Bergland v Harris, 767 F.2d 1551 (1985), which suggested that Georgia’s former petition requirement of 2.5% (of the number of registered voters) for presidential candidates was probably unconstitutional. That decision is based on Anderson v Celebrezze, which said that states must have easier ballot access for president than for other office. The Florida bill, if enacted, would probably also violate the Florida Constitution, which says “The requirements for a candidate with no party affiliation or for a candidate of a minor party for placement of the candidate’s name on the ballot shall be no greater than the requirements for a candidate of the party having the largest number of registered voters.”

HB 1355 was also amended on April 18 to provide that no group may be qualified as a minor party in Florida unless it has a chair, vice chair, secretary, treasurer, all of whom are registered members of that party. This is a common-sense re-definition of “qualified political party”. Last year, one particular individual, for reasons known only to himself, filed paperwork for 40 new qualified parties, and under the existing definition of “qualified political party”, the state had no choice but to accept this paperwork, even though these were all parties with no registered members and only one officer. This amendment is retroactive, so all the existing qualified parties would be required to file new paperwork, showing that they have four specified officers, all of whom must be registered in that party. Parties would have six months to complete the new paperwork. UPDATE: the same provisions have now also been amended into SB 2086, except that SB 2086 requires a petition of 2% of the last presidential vote, not 4%.

Indiana Republican Senators Amend Omnibus Election Law Bill to Keep Secretary of State Office in Republican Hands

Posted on by April 19, 2011
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Indiana elected a new Secretary of State on November 2, 2010. He is Charlie White, the Republican nominee. However, White in in danger of being removed from the office, because the evidence points to a conclusion that he voted in a precinct in which he did not live. Current Indiana law says if the Election Board removes him from office, the runner-up becomes Secretary of State instead. Of course, the runner-up in November 2010 was the Democratic nominee.

But on April 18, the Republican majority in the State Senate amended HB 1242, an omnibus election law that had already passed the House and which (as introduced) makes 26 mundane technical changes to election laws. The amendment says that when the Election Commission decides that a candidate who was subject to a contest proceeding is declared not eligible, that office is then deemed vacant, and the Governor may fill the vacancy. The amendment applies to all state office except judicial office, Governor, and Lieutenant Governor. Indiana now has a Republican Governor.

The bill now must return to the House, for concurrence in the amendment. The amendment also clarifies that even if a candidate is removed, the vote cast for him or her still stands, for purposes of determining if that candidate’s political party remains qualified. Indiana defines qualified parties by whether or not they get 2% for Secretary of State in the last election. Some had speculated that the Republican Party could be deemed no longer a qualified party if its nominee for Secretary of State had been declared ineligible.